MLB Barometer: Early Draft Season Helium

Helium.

Pronunciation /ˈhiːliəm/ (HEE-lee-əm)

Frequently asked questions, according to Google:

• Is helium gas? (Yes.)
• What are the main uses of helium? (Mostly, balloons, blimps and arc welding.)
• Is it bad to inhale helium? (It doesn't kill brain cells.)
• Is Helium a diatomic? (No. It's a noble gas.)
• How do you make helium at home? (You can't.)

Player values fluctuate a lot over the course of draft season. Thankfully, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship begins offering paid drafts in December, giving us the ability to track the draft-day "cost" of a player over time.

As the fantasy community researches, writes and discusses players throughout the winter months, values shift. Over the years, we have started to refer to the biggest risers as players with helium, because of their soaring prices based on Average Draft Position (ADP) data.

Nuclear fusion of hydrogen in stars creates large amounts of new helium in the universe.

The shiny new toys (as Yahoo's Scott Pianowski calls them) create large amounts of new helium in the player pool.

Comparing the ADP data from the early NFBC drafts in December to the most recent reports from the first half of March, it's hardly surprising that some of the biggest risers this draft season have not played a full season at the big-league level, and in many case, they haven't even made their MLB debut yet.

Players with an ADP rise of 50 or more slots since the start of draft season include Ronald Acuna, Lewis Brinson, Willie Calhoun, Scott Kingery, Dustin Fowler and Miguel Andujar. Of course, the uncertainty about their respective roles in December was much greater than it is with little more than two weeks remaining in spring training.

Even a 20-slot jump can be significant, especially for players within the overall Top 200 in ADP. Young, high-upside players in that group include: Luis Castillo, Manny Margot, Rafael Devers and Ozzie Albies.

Particularly from that latter group of four players, it's easy to get caught up in the lack of long-term production relative to the alternatives on the board during that portion of the draft.

Players need to be assessed on an individual basis, so it's interesting and disappointing that analysts will often have blanket rules for inexperienced players with rising prices. Let's bypass a soapbox rant for this week, and focus instead on some the other value changes this draft season.

Youth is not the only source of helium in the player pool.

Player movement and health are two major factors in shifting player values, as trades can lead a player to a significant better (or worse) playing time arrangement, or create opportunities on the depth chart they departed. Free-agent movement leads to similar shifts. As spring games unfold, one of the most important things to monitor is the health of players who battled injuries the previous season. New injuries drag down player values, and existing injuries that nag a player through spring training can drop prices as well.

This offseason has been unlike any other in the free-agent era. Productive veterans have been unemployed deep into spring, which offered a temporary window of discounted prices on the likes of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Lucroy, Neil Walker, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb and Greg Holland (both of whom remain unsigned as of Monday afternoon).

For this week, the players in focus are some of the bigger movers of this offseason, but there are players in both sections that are worth considering.

RISERS

Christian Yelich, OF, MIL (Dec ADP: 70.65 | March ADP: 43.15 | Change: +27.50)

The increased price on Yelich places him in a draft-day toss-up with Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Of course, as the Marlins started tearing down their roster, the possibility of Yelich getting stuck in Miami during a full-scale rebuild drove his value down. Upon getting flipped to the Brewers, the expectation was that he would spend 2018 in a lineup similar in quality to his supporting cast from 2017, while also reaping the benefits of a more hitter-friendly home park. Miller Park boosts left-handed power in a big way, with a three-year park factor of 131 for homers (only Yankee Stadium is higher at 142). It's also a better park for runs as a whole compared to Marlins Park (84), checking in at 105.

Much like his new teammate Travis Shaw did a year ago, Yelich won the offseason park factors lottery. To take full advantage, he'll need to hit the ball in the air more frequently, after posting groundball rates above 55 percent in each of the last three seasons. Even if he doesn't significantly alter his batted-ball profile, Yelich's power-speed combo and strong supporting cast should allow him to approach his 2017 output and make a run at his first 20-20 season. He can make value at his new price, but it's highly unlikely that he'll exceed it.

Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL (Dec ADP: 164.29 | March ADP: 119.05 | Change: +45.24)

It seems like everybody loves Albies. Frankly, it's really difficult to find faults in his profile. After turning 21 in January, Albies is aiming to produce at a level similar to his performance across 57 games for the Braves last summer when he hit .286/.354/.456 with six homers and eight steals over nine attempts. More surprising than his ability to hold his own as a 20-year-old rookie last season was the emergence of pop, as Ablies hit as many home runs in his partial season with Atlanta than he did over 138 games at Double-A and Triple-A in 2016 (six over 618 plate appearances).

With the opportunity to hit second in an improving Braves lineup, Albies seemingly has a strong batting average floor and enough speed to get 20 steals with ease, while offering the potential to eclipse 30 if he can maintain a strikeout rate in the neighborhood of 15 percent. The ZiPS projection is more aggressive than Steamer in terms of homers and steals (15 and 25, respectively), but ZiPS checks in with the lower slash line (.258/.316/.408) despite strong counting stats (84 runs, 75 RBI). In this case, the helium appears to be warranted.

Kolten Wong, 2B, STL (Dec ADP: 394.82 | March ADP: 360.62 | Change: +34.2)

Wong likely will be buried in the bottom third of the Cards' batting order again, at least to begin 2018, but his overall improvement last season has been largely ignored despite career highs in average (.285), OBP (.376) and SLG (.412). The logjam of infielders in St. Louis might occasionally bump him from the lineup against lefties when everyone is healthy, but with Matt Carpenter slowed by a back injury this spring, Jedd Gyorko and Jose Martinez will cover the corners, leaving Wong at the keystone. The last two seasons, he's 15-for-17 on the basepaths, and Wong has told reporters he wants more green lights this season. Cheap speed is difficult to find, but Wong might be able to offer that from a middle-infield spot, putting him on the radar for 12-team mixers in the endgame.

Devon Travis, 2B, TOR (Dec ADP: 406.12 | March ADP: 371.39 | Change: +34.73)

As spring training stats go, there is one important number for Travis. Seven. He's played in seven Grapefruit League games through March 11, which is an excellent indication of his health. A career .292/.331/.462 hitter over 867 plate appearances, Travis has been significantly hampered by major injuries throughout his three seasons with the Blue Jays. The addition of Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz this offseason will offer up viable alternatives to provide occasional rest if Travis needs preventative maintenance following two seasons that have been marred by knee injuries. Like Wong, Travis can become mixed-league relevant at least as a middle-infield filler thanks to his ability to contribute in multiple categories. Both may prove to be useful fallback options for those who miss out on Scott Kingery in the late rounds.

Tyler Chatwood, SP, CHC (Dec ADP: 343.19 | March ADP: 258.87 | Change: +84.32)

As it stands now, the Cubs are leaning on Chatwood to replace John Lackey in their rotation after signing him to a three-year deal in December. Leaving Colorado completely changes Chatwood's ceiling, and his road ratios from 2017 (3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) aren't far off from his career splits (3.31 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). Walks have been a problem for him in the past (career 4.2 BB/9), but it's fair to wonder if the free passes he piled up can be partially attributed to nibbling outside the strike zone to avoid getting destroyed by opposing hitters at Coors Field. Keep an eye on his pitch mix early this season, as he was using his curveball as a third offering on a more frequent basis last season (11.2 percent) while working with increased velocity on his fastball (career-high 94.7 mph) and a steady diet of cutters (20.8 percent). At a bare minimum, he's a regular home streamer in shallow mixed leagues to begin 2018, while owners in 15-team mixed formats and deeper will likely use him for plenty of road matchups.

Miles Mikolas, SP, STL (Dec ADP: 410.4 | March ADP: 291.12 | Change: +119.28)

Mikolas struggled in his first two spring outings, which without poor velocity readings, didn't really matter. In his third start, Mikolas threw his four-seamer 94-95 mph while showing an improved curveball, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His status as a "riser" for this piece has nothing to do with the spring performance as a whole. As a fringe top-300 overall pick, Mikolas makes plenty of sense as you put together the final pieces of your rotation. Don't expect a strikeout rate above the 7.5-7.8 K/9 range in his return to MLB, but Mikolas showed improved control and more consistency with his arsenal during his three-year stint with Yomiuri.

FALLERS

Marcus Stroman, SP, TOR (Dec ADP: 114.71 | March ADP: 150.64 | Change: -35.93)

In addition to being a groundball machine (career 59.6 percent GB%), Stroman has logged back-to-back 200-inning seasons for the Jays. Shoulder inflammation has slowed his progress this spring, and while he may be ready for the first series of the season against the Yankees, the Jays have already ruled out the possibility of starting him on Opening Day. A 35-pick drop within the top 150 is steep, and yet, this discount doesn't feel like it's enough. An increasing swinging-strike rate in each of the last two seasons, which topped out at 10.0 percent in 2017, suggests that he may have a chance of slightly improving his strikeout rate, but he's hovered at 7.3 K/9 in consecutive seasons while showing his ERA range (4.37 in 2016, 3.09 in 2017) around a good, but not great FIP (3.71 in 2016, 3.90 in 2017). Maybe with another 25-30 pick drop from his ADP, Stroman could become discounted enough to take on the risk.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (Dec ADP: 114.82 | March ADP: 144.88 | Change: -30.06)

The Nationals signed Matt Adams as a veteran insurance policy to play behind Zimmerman this season, but other than a slight delay to his appearances in Grapefruit League games due to age, the slide in Zimmerman's ADP doesn't make much sense. If Zimmerman lands on the DL at some point, Adams will become temporarily relevant in a significant number of leagues, but when Zimmerman is healthy, he should collect 80-85 percent of the starts at first base in one of the best lineups in the National League. The resurgence of Zimmerman in 2017 can be attributed to the adjustments he made to his swing, as he added loft to better utilize the good exit velocity numbers he showed when he was pounding the ball into the ground frequently in 2016. A .269/.337/.542 line in the second half is probably a better baseline expectation for him when building a 2018 projection, but Zimmerman was still 25 percent better than league average in the second half after his strikeout rate jumped from 19.1 to 25.4 percent. He looked like a fair value in early drafts, and now with a 30-pick discount, he's even more palatable.

Alex Colome, RP, TB (Dec ADP: 108.29 | March ADP: 132.39 | Change: -24.1)

Lost in the profits yielded by a 47-for-53 mark in save opportunities last season, is a surprisingly underwhelming set of skills. Colome had a 20.6 percent strikeout rate – only Brad Ziegler and Alex Claudio were lower among 2018 "projected" closers (and including Claudio under that label might be generous). A closer look reveals a swinging-strike rate (12.5 percent) that doesn't portend a rebound in whiffs. The Rays are still built to play a lot of close, low-scoring games, and as long as he's in Tampa Bay, he might remain the team's preferred ninth-inning option. There just isn't much to fall back on if the Rays flip him to a contender at some point this summer, as he may be viewed as a middle reliever elsewhere. Colome is draftable 35-40 picks later, but Colome is falling toward third-tier closer status despite last season's success.

Starlin Castro, 2B, MIA (Dec ADP: 224.94 | March ADP: 290.35 | Change: -65.41)

With 25 of his 37 homers the last two seasons hit at Yankee Stadium, Castro appears to be on the brink of an early career power collapse following an offseason trade to Miami. During his two seasons with the Yankees, Castro posted road wRC+ splits of 63 in 2016 and 87 in 2017. An opportunity to hit higher in the order with the Marlins will lead to more plate appearances, and perhaps serviceable count stats, but Castro hasn't provided more than five steals in a season since 2013. There are plenty of more interesting middle-infielders available in the Pick 200-350 range, and the best justification for using Castro in that capacity is that he doesn't have much competition for plate appearances this season.

Aaron Altherr, OF, PHI (Dec ADP: 213.41 | March ADP: 288.05 | Change: -74.64)
Nick Williams, OF, PHI (Dec ADP: 269.12 | March ADP: 312.92 | Change: -43.8)

The assumption with playing time in the Philadelphia outfield is that Rhys Hoskins will play every day, while Williams and Altherr will mostly platoon in right, leaving Odubel Herrera most of the playing time in center. Currently, the Phillies have a good problem on their hands, as Williams held his own against lefties (94 wRC+ as a rookie last season), while Herrera (105) and Altherr were both above average. Altherr was actually the best of the trio against righties (123 wRC+) a year ago, while Herrera was the worst (98) and Williams was very good (116). Strangely enough, Herrera's ADP is up nearly 10 picks from December, and it's entirely possible that all three players will rotate between the two spots, and perhaps once a month, all three will start together when Hoskins gets a day off. Herrera's defense in center field gives him a leg up to begin the year, but Altherr is still very draftable in 15-team leagues, especially as a fifth or sixth outfielder until injuries or other factor clarify the playing time hierarchy in the Philadelphia outfield.

Keon Broxton, OF, MIL (Dec ADP: 260.47 | March ADP: 366.85 | Change: -106.38)

The Brewers' addition of Christian Yelich via trade and Lorenzo Cain via free agency leaves Broxton in a spot where he's no more than the fourth outfielder. Brett Phillips may hang around on the 25-man roster at various points this season, and both Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana figure to play a lot, with Braun potentially getting run at first base (which also leaves Eric Thames searching for playing time). Broxton went 20-20 last year, but in a Freddy Galvis 2016 kind of way, hitting .220/.299/.420. He's an excellent defender in center field, making him viable for late-inning spot duty when the Brewers want a boost on the basepaths or in the field, but he may be pressed to start more than twice each week barring multiple injuries to the more talented hitters blocking his path to playing time.