This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
Well, we have finally arrived. Opening Day is here and the long but fun six-month roller coaster ride begins. Here is hoping that we all have more ups than downs during this campaign, but of course we will have a good amount of both. Once again, I'll provide my yearly advice that even I forget sometimes, which is to not get too high on the highs or too low on the lows. When you're going well, always look for ways to improve, and when things are going poorly, remember, it's a long season, and you drafted your studs for a reason. Find a path to gain ground, even if it's slowly.
The first month of the season can always be a tough one in fantasy, as after drafting and researching for the two months, we want results now, and a slow start can be frustrating. Baseball has a lot of peaks and valleys, but for the most part, your studs will break out of slumps and your young guys will eventually hit a groove, but that doesn't mean there aren't important moves to make based on the first month. Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports often comments on Twitter that if you wait to get full confirmation on players performances these days, it will be too late. You have to act on players who look to be breaking out or falling into increased playing time, so let's look at a couple situations worth monitoring in April as a way to see
Well, we have finally arrived. Opening Day is here and the long but fun six-month roller coaster ride begins. Here is hoping that we all have more ups than downs during this campaign, but of course we will have a good amount of both. Once again, I'll provide my yearly advice that even I forget sometimes, which is to not get too high on the highs or too low on the lows. When you're going well, always look for ways to improve, and when things are going poorly, remember, it's a long season, and you drafted your studs for a reason. Find a path to gain ground, even if it's slowly.
The first month of the season can always be a tough one in fantasy, as after drafting and researching for the two months, we want results now, and a slow start can be frustrating. Baseball has a lot of peaks and valleys, but for the most part, your studs will break out of slumps and your young guys will eventually hit a groove, but that doesn't mean there aren't important moves to make based on the first month. Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports often comments on Twitter that if you wait to get full confirmation on players performances these days, it will be too late. You have to act on players who look to be breaking out or falling into increased playing time, so let's look at a couple situations worth monitoring in April as a way to see how the rest of the season may progress. We'll get back to the standard format of taking a look at the prior week and FAAB advice next week after we have some real results to break down.
Phillies Playing Time
The Phillies rapidly are become an interesting young offense, but the whole situation got a little more crowded this past weekend when it was announced that prospect Scott Kingery had made the Opening Day roster. Manager Gabe Kapler indicated that Kingery will play in both the infield and the outfield in sort of a super utility role. Assuming 2017 breakout star Rhys Hoskins and free agent signee Carlos Santana are locked into heavy at-bats, but the rest of the spots could be cycled through for a while to try and determine which guys end up with the majority of the playing time.
The Phillies already had three players for two remaining spots (assuming Hoskins full-time in left field) in Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr. Herrera sat on Opening Day, but Kapler indicated that it was matchup-based, and it seems like all three outfielders will split time pretty evenly with Herrera maybe getting a bit more run, as he will man center field a lot. The guy in the mix I really like is Aaron Altherr. He got his first extended taste of the big leagues in 2017, and while the K rate is a bit high at 25.2 percent, he put up an .856 OPS in 107 games, hitting 19 homers and driving in 65 runs. He showed a nice boost in hard contact also, posting a 36.4 percent hard hit rate, seven percent higher than his 57-game sample in 2016. He also boosted his fly ball rate significantly to 37.5 percent, a very nice combination for those of us looking for homers. Altherr is going split time to start out, but I think he'll be able to separate himself from Nick Williams and earn regular at-bats as the season progresses. I'd try to grab him in deeper leagues via trade before that occurs.
In the infield, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and JP Crawford could be at risk for playing time loss, especially if Kingery carries over his hot spring where he hit .411 with five homers and four steals. Crawford is still a top prospect, and his high-level defense at shortstop should provide him with a long leash. Franco was a well-regarded prospect after being signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2000 at age 18 but had a disappointing 2017 in which he hit .230 to go with 24 home runs. He has not lived up to the hype, and while he does make contact often, it's not especially hard, as he has never topped a 31 percent hard hit rate. He's also not especially well thought of defensively, and his career defensive war via Fangraphs lies in the negatives.
Cesar Hernandez not only has been a strong batting average bat for the Phillies, but also has sported a walk rate of more than 10 percent in the last two seasons to push his OBP over .370 in each of those seasons. Further, his defensive numbers at second base are strong, adding more value to his profile. While Kingery should swap in for everyone at some point, I'd think the first six weeks of the season is most significant for Franco as he's probably the most at risk to lose regular at-bats to Kingery. Of course, injuries could determine how this situation plays out, but without that, we're likely to see a lot of mixing and matching, as the Phillies and Kapler figure out who to ride in the second half. In trade leagues, I'd stress the emergence of Kingery and try and make a trade for Cesar Hernandez, as I think it's still under the radar just how good he is, and the emergence of Kingery has made people even more pessimistic towards Hernandez for 2018.
The Nationals Outfield
Another situation I'll watch with a close eye in April is the Washington Nationals outfield. Bryce Harper obviously is locked in every day, and for now Adam Eaton will be manning left field, while Michael Taylor patrols center field. Eaton is coming off a major knee injury, and Taylor is coming off a season in which he filled in very well for Eaton, hitting .271 with 19 homers and 17 stolen bases. Of course, the elephant in the room is that stud prospect Victor Robles is lurking in the minor leagues waiting for an opportunity. The Nationals aren't going to call up Robles unless he's going to play every day, and that makes these first six weeks very important for Taylor. Now, Robles is still only 20, so if Taylor is producing, they could get Robles some more seasoning in Triple-A, as he is yet to play that level of the minors. But if Taylor is off to a slow start, the heat in the kitchen is going to ramp up quickly, especially for a team with legit World Series aspirations.
Taylor is extremely talented, but his issue has always been strikeouts. He has a career strikeout rate of 31.8 percent, and his .363 BABIP was a huge reason that he was able to hit .271 in 2017. Taylor has some pop, but not nearly enough to be striking out that often, and if he were to slump to start the year, the calls for Robles are going to start in earnest. I think Eaton is safe in his playing time, as the Nationals gave up both Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito to acquire him before the 2017 season, and he's a rock solid leadoff man who has posted an OBP over .360 in each of the past four seasons. This will be an interesting situation to watch the Nationals manage, especially if Robles tears up Triple-A to start the season.
A Closer Look/FAAB Feelings
As draft season was ending, we got a bunch of news about closers that shook up rosters and altered some late drafts. Where available, these newly appointed closers will be heavily bid upon in the FAAB bidding this weekend.
In Arizona, the D'Backs decided to keep Archie Bradley is his multi-inning setup role and go with Brad Boxberger as their stopper in the ninth. Bradley was drafted as if he was the likely closer for much of the draft season, but Boxberger was also picked in most drafts due to the uncertainty of the situation, so I'm going to focus on a couple of other spots where the new closers might be available this weekend in your leagues. If you have a smaller league, or Boxberger slipped through your league's draft, I'd definitely bid based on his 12.27 K/9 last year in 29.1 innings and the fact that the D'Backs seem committed to not moving Bradley out of his current role.
The Rangers announced on Thursday that Keone Kela would be their closer to start the year rather than Alex Claudio who finished the 2017 season in the role. Kela has been the Rangers "closer of the future" for the last couple of years, and it looks like he will finally get a chance to fulfill that promise, albeit possibly with a short leash to start. Kela threw only 38.2 innings in the Majors last year as he dealt with shoulder soreness during the second half.
Kela was effective when he was out there, posting a 2.79 ERA with an 11.87 K/9 strikeout rate. The concern with employing Kela in the ninth innings is his elevated walk rate. He walked 3.96 batters per nine in 2017, but that was actually an improvement from 2016 when his walk rate was 4.50 BB/9. On the plus side, in his last full season in 2015 when he threw 60.1 innings for the Rangers, he only walked 2.69 batters per nine. With his stuff (he has a career swinging strike rate of 12.4 percent, although it was down last year to 10.7 percent), if he can lower that walk rate again, he becomes very intriguing as the closer in Arlington.
In leagues where he was undrafted and a free agent in this weekend, I'm going aggressive on Kela if I need a closer and even semi-aggressive where maybe I don't need a closer at the moment, as I think he has a good chance to convert a few saves early and run away with the job. In addition to Kela's interesting skill set, Claudio has a low strikeout rate and likely is better deployed as a situational reliever as he has been significantly better against lefties over the course of his career.
Giants closer Mark Melancon was placed on the DL on Thursday with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Manager Bruce Bochy mentioned before the game Thursday that Melancon could be ready to go in a couple of weeks, but I'm heavily doubting that as I do with most arm injuries for pitchers. Before the first game, Bochy announced that Hunter Strickland would be the closer filling in for Melancon. Strickland is another closer-of-the-future guy, but has been better known for giving up big homers in the playoffs and then fighting with Bryce Harper last season.
When he wasn't brawling with Harper last year, Strickland did compile a 2.64 ERA over 61.1 innings but he struggled more with walks than he ever has in his career with a 4.26 BB/9 rate. With a career rate under 3.00 BB/9, this could have been an outlier season, and he may revert back to his career norms in walks. Strickland is decent with strikeouts with a career rate of 8.67 K/9 but isn't a dominant reliever in that aspect, and his swinging strike rate fell to 10.8 percent in 2017. His biggest hurdle toward taking the step up to be an effective closer will be fixing his struggles with lefties. He was especially poor against lefties in 2017, allowing a .444 slugging percentage, a 2.16 Whip and a 38 percent hard hit rate. He dominated righties to a tune of a .200 batting average against and a 9.5 K/9 strikeout rate while only walking 2.93 righties per nine.
I think Melancon is going to be out longer (maybe significantly so) than the initial projections, and I like that Bochy has openly and strongly backed Strickland, plus locking down the save in a 1-0 game on Opening Day certainly helped the leash get a little bit longer. Much like with Kela, I'm aggressively bidding on Strickland where I need saves, but I think Kela will be on the top of my bids as he doesn't have a high-priced closer lingering behind him waiting to get healthy.
Series of the Weekend
Giants at Dodgers. It's always fun when these two teams play but it's even better when it's a four-game set to kick off the season. The opener lost a good amount of luster when Madison Bumgarner went on the DL, depriving us of a matchup with Clayton Kershaw, but the soft-tossing Ty Blach spat on that narrative and out-dueled the three-time Cy Young Award winner in a 1-0 Giants victory.
The Giants struggled on offense in 2017 but added veterans Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in an attempt to close the large gap between them and the Dodgers. That attempt hit an early snag with the injuries to Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, and they'll need Johnny Cueto to find his prior to 2017 form in order to hold down the fort until the injured arms return.
The Dodgers come back in 2017 looking to win just one more game this year after losing the World Series to the Astros in seven games. They're talented, deep and have built their rotation around very effective arms, but ones where they manage their innings. They will send Rich Hill to the mound on Sunday in the finale of the series. Everyone knows Hill's journey over the past few years, but it still amazes me that a 35-year-old guy pitching in the independent leagues came back to MLB and has now posted 246 innings over the past two seasons with a sparkling ERA of 2.78. Hill has struggled with blisters over the past two years, but he's one of those guys that when he's on the mound, he's a must watch. The Dodgers will look to maneuver and massage Hill again this year to shoot for another great 150 innings.
These teams have a great rivalry and one that has been reignited over the past decade, as the Giants won three World Series titles, and the Dodgers overhauled their front office to try and win that coveted ring for the first time in 30 years. There's something great about Dodgers-Giants games, especially with Chavez Ravine as the setting. Enjoy the first weekend of baseball. Man, is it fantastic to have it back!
