Collette Calls: Analyzing Pitcher Velocity

Collette Calls: Analyzing Pitcher Velocity

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

Last weekend was a bittersweet weekend for me. I am thrilled the real baseball games are here and very much enjoyed being in Atlanta for Opening Day to watch Nick Markakis hit a three-run walk-off homer to beat the Phillies. I also dislike writing this time of year because it goes against everything that I hold true and is best summed up with the following image:

It is very tough to look at much of anything on opening weekend, or even the opening two weeks, in any kind of predictive nature. There is one thing, however, we can look at – pitcher velocity. It might be a slow gun in a park or cold weather, but a drop in velocity from pitchers is a concern. The danger some seem to fall into is comparing March or April velocities to what was happening toward the end of the previous season. That particular exercise is risky because fastball velocity is influenced by temperature, plus or minus one degree, according to research done in 2011 by Mike Fast:

Below we'll compare pitcher velocities from the first weekend to how each pitcher ended last season and to how they started the 2017 season to see if there is anything of concern. The readings for 2017 would be the earliest start in April or the pitcher's earliest 2017 start while September readings are the pitcher's final regular-season start even if it did not take place in September.

ANGELS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Garrett
Last weekend was a bittersweet weekend for me. I am thrilled the real baseball games are here and very much enjoyed being in Atlanta for Opening Day to watch Nick Markakis hit a three-run walk-off homer to beat the Phillies. I also dislike writing this time of year because it goes against everything that I hold true and is best summed up with the following image:

It is very tough to look at much of anything on opening weekend, or even the opening two weeks, in any kind of predictive nature. There is one thing, however, we can look at – pitcher velocity. It might be a slow gun in a park or cold weather, but a drop in velocity from pitchers is a concern. The danger some seem to fall into is comparing March or April velocities to what was happening toward the end of the previous season. That particular exercise is risky because fastball velocity is influenced by temperature, plus or minus one degree, according to research done in 2011 by Mike Fast:

Below we'll compare pitcher velocities from the first weekend to how each pitcher ended last season and to how they started the 2017 season to see if there is anything of concern. The readings for 2017 would be the earliest start in April or the pitcher's earliest 2017 start while September readings are the pitcher's final regular-season start even if it did not take place in September.

ANGELS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Garrett Richards 96.5 95.9 96.3
Tyler Skaggs 92.0 92.5 91.1
Matt Shoemaker 90.2 90.8 92.3

It is encouraging to see Richards back where he began last year, but even more encouraging to see Skaggs back where he finished 2017 and a bit of a step ahead of where he began 2017. Meanwhile, Shoemaker was down from where he began 2017, but he did both get the win and avoided a home run in his 2018 debut against Oakland.

ASTROS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Justin Verlander 95.0 95.1 94.4
Dallas Keuchel 89.5 89.8 88.9
Lance McCullers 94.2 93.8 94.2

No concerns here as all three pitchers showed no velocity trouble after their successful extended season. The workloads should be watched as the season goes on as it is not unusual for pitchers on World Series teams to wear down later in the following season. It is something to keep in mind for keeper leagues given the Astros are heavy favorites to once again go deep into the post-season.

A's

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Sean Manaea 90.7 90.9 93.1
Daniel Mengden 92.1 91.6 92.0
Kendall Graveman 93.9 94.2 94.1

Manaea concerns me a bit. His velocity was down in the second half of last season as he struggled with health issues and lost 20-25 pounds during that time. I would expect that his Opening Day velocity would be closer to where it was last year, but instead he has picked up where he left off last season. It did not hurt him in terms of swings and missed as he tied for the third-highest total opening weekend with Clayton Kershaw, but we should keep an eye on how this velocity tracks over the next few outings.

BLUE JAYS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
J.A. Happ 91.0 91.4 91.2
Aaron Sanchez 94.7 94.7 95.6
Marco Estrada 88.9 89.7 89.7

The only concern is the Jays' three best starters did not do much to keep the Yankees' bats at bay in the opening series. It is good to see Aaron Sanchez picking up where he left off last year, and let's hope he can avoid the blister situation that has plagued him for too long.

BRAVES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Julio Teheran 89.1 92.3 90.2
Brandon McCarthy 91.1 92.5 93.8
Mike Foltynewicz 95.8 95.0 94.0

I did not see any of McCarthy's outing, but those numbers are not terribly encouraging. I did attend Teheran's outing and it was a typical boring outing for him. The velocity reading is not too bad considering it is in the ballpark of where he began the 2017 season, but a more noticeable drop to where he ended last season. Lastly, love seeing the early number from Foltynewicz as I am still a believer.

BREWERS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Chase Anderson 91.7 93.5 91.8
Brent Suter 86.2 85.4 85.3
Jhoulys Chacin 89.8 91.0 91.7

Chacin is the concern because he is 2 mph off where he began last season and 1.2 off from where he ended it. I was very high on Chacin coming into the season, but his debut with Milwaukee was less than stellar, and he generated just five swings-and-misses out of 69 pitches. I am not cutting bait after a single start, but I want to keep an eye on his velocity readings to see if it was just a singular reading or if he left a little of his fastball back west.

CARDINALS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Carlos Martinez 94.4 95.9 95.7
Michael Wacha 92.9 96.3 95.0

Neither pitcher looked particularly good in his debut. Martinez could not command much of anything in his Opening Day start while Wacha was too hittable and generated just three swings-and-misses out of 95 pitches against the Mets. For comparison's sake, Brandon Kintzler has that many swings-and-misses on 10 pitches in 2018 and he is by no means a fireballer.

CUBS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Jon Lester 90.2 91.7 91.4
Kyle Hendricks 86.9 87.2 86.4
Yu Darvish 94.1 94.0 94.3

Nothing much to see here, much like the Cubs offense this season while facing inexperienced pitchers. The bats have crushed Jose Urena and Odamir Despaigne, but could not touch Caleb Smith, Dillon Peters and Tyler Mahle. The team cannot be that scouting report/data-driven, can it?

DIAMONDBACKS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Zack Greinke 89.1 90.6 91.0
Patrick Corbin 92.3 91.1 92.9
Robbie Ray 92.6 94.3 92.6

I watched the Greinke start and despite his best grunts, the fastball was 89-91 all game. He hit his spots with it to set up his secondary pitches as both his breaking ball and changeup looked very good in the outing. The breaking balls were down and low and his changeup had serious armside fade, even at 86 mph. Ray is the one to look at because some were concerned about his initial velocity reading being down from last year. Yes, it was down from where he finished the season, but it was right where he began 2017. Go see if your local owner is panicked after Ray's bad start to see if you can by the stud at a discount.

DODGERS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Clayton Kershaw 91.5 92.6 93.0
Alex Wood 90.3 90.0 94.3
Kenta Maeda 91.5 93.6 91.8

Alex Wood's velocity decline was one of the reasons I singled him out in my bold predictions piece as someone to avoid this season. Of course, he was stellar in his debut with eight shutout innings of one-hit ball while generating 11 swings-and-misses. One start does not change my mind, and the fact his heater was 90 reinforces it. Wood lost velocity every month last year, so if that trend continues again this year, it is tough to imagine his success continuing. If I owned him, I would begin positioning trade offers to sell high on him.

The real panic in LaLa Land should be around Kenley Jansen, because this is a disturbing graph:



GIANTS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Johnny Cueto 90.4 90.7 92.2
Derek Holland 90.4 90.5 92.2
Ty Blach 89.5 90.1 92.6

This trio of pitchers permitted three earned runs to the Dodgers, and Holland was responsible for all three. We all know that the Dodgers struggle against lefty starters, but Blach's opening day outing was very surprising. Cueto does not have his old fastball, but he shimmied and shook his way through seven innings of hitting his spots and changing speeds to one-hit the Dodgers.

INDIANS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Corey Kluber 91.7 92.4 92.0
Carlos Carrasco 93.3 93.7 94.4

Kluber threw a complete game on Opening Day and took the loss as a hanger to Nelson Cruz was the difference in the game. Carrasco was not as successful as the Mariners hung five runs on him and chased him in the sixth inning.

MARINERS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Felix Hernandez 90.2 90.3 91.3
James Paxton 94.9 94.7 96.2

Hernandez still does not have the fastball, but it was fun to watch him pitch on Opening Day as he cannot throw anything straight and he hits most of his spots. That is what he has to do to succeed these days, and he did that very well against Cleveland.

MARLINS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Caleb Smith 93.0 94.2 94.2
Odrisamer Despaigne 91.6 92.6 91.2
Jose Urena 94.9 95.2 96.2

The two vets struggled, but the kid (Smith) did quite well in his outing. The best part about rebuilding teams is watching the young kids develop, and Smith as well as Peters looked good in their first outings for Miami.

METS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Jacob deGrom 94.2 94.8 94.2
Noah Syndergaard 97.7 99.5 97.5

Aces gonna ace, and the co-studs in New York looked good in their first outings. Just stay healthy, just stay healthy.

NATIONALS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Max Scherzer 93.2 92.9 93.7
Stephen Strasburg 94.9 95.3 95.8

See above. The same story applies to this duo. We should all be so lucky to see any pairing of the last four pitchers in this article and this is one of the few reasons I like the unbalanced schedule as it permits some excellent pitching matchups within this division loaded with great pitching.

ORIOLES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Dylan Bundy 92.1 91.1 92.5
Andrew Cashner 92.1 94.3 92.2

Bundy looked great on Opening Day, but he is the only thing that has looked good in Baltimore to begin this season. The offense has been terrible, the other starters have been predictably awful, but Bundy flourished with seven shutout innings and generated 14 swings-and-misses against the Twins.

PADRES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Clayton Richard 89.6 90.3 90.9
Luis Perdomo 93.0 93.2 93.8

Perdomo's problem was not velocity as much as it was difficulty executing his pitches and controlling his fastball. He struck out seven, but also permitted seven hits and walked four in four innings. That outing was much like many of his previous ones for San Diego the past two seasons.

PHILLIES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Aaron Nola 91.3 92.6 92.2
Vince Velasquez 94.8 91.2 93.6
Nick Pivetta 94.5 94.9 94.6

Insert your Gabe Kapler bullpenning joke here. In all seriousness, Nola looked just fine on Opening Day from my view in the 200 level of Sun Trust Park, but Pivetta and Velasquez both struggled. The larger issue is Kapler's quick hook, especially for leagues that leverage quality starts. He is showing aggressiveness with his pen management all while two of his best assets – Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek – are on the disabled list. I do not see this pattern ending any time soon.

PIRATES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Ivan Nova 92.5 91.7 93.9

I was surprised this number was not lower as the weather conditions in Detroit were sub-optimal. Nova had a rough start to the game as he loaded the bases with nobody out, and then suddenly found his command and got out of that mess unscathed.

RANGERS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Matt Moore 92.1 93.0 92.5
Doug Fister 88.4 89.5 88.3
Cole Hamels 89.6 92.0 92.0

Hamels is becoming Jamie Moyer before our very eyes, yet he still struck out seven batters in 5.2 innings on 12 swings-and-misses. That is as many swings and misses as Tanaka, Ray, and Kluber had in their first start. The velocity readings are not great, but as long as Hamels still has the changeup, he should be serviceable.

RAYS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Blake Snell 95.1 95.4 94.0
Chris Archer 94.6 95.2 94.2
Andrew Kittredge 93.0 95.2 94.4

Buh-Lock-A Snell looked very nice on Opening Day, and frankly, all three guys did. Archer was victimized by an ill-timed inside-the-park home run when Denard Span got in Kevin Kiermaier's way and the ball went to the wall as both players went to the turf.

RED SOX

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Chris Sale 93.7 96.1 94.2
David Price 92.4 94.0 94.5
Rick Porcello 89.4 91.8 89.9

Price looked terrific in his debut start, even if his average fastball velocity was not where it was when he debuted last year. His command was pristine and he looked like vintage Price, minus the big fastball.

REDS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Homer Bailey 92.3 93.3 93.9
Luis Castillo 95.8 97.2 98.1

Castillo had a terrible debut as he struggled to command his pitches, and he too was down a bit off where he debuted last season. Hopefully, both issues are a one-time thing for him, otherwise a lot of owners are going to be disappointed as there was quite a tax to be paid to roster him this year in drafts and auctions. It was also nice to see Homer Bailey reach back and remind us of what he once was on the mound. I am still a believer and have him in two leagues.

ROCKIES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Jon Gray 95.7 95.8 95.5
German Marquez 95.1 95.6 94.2
Tyler Anderson 91.0 91.2 92.8

I tuned in to watch Marquez pitch his game and was not disappointed. He twice struck out Paul Goldschmidt in dominating fashion and dotted 99 on the gun a few times in this outing. His command was not terribly sharp, but the big arm is definitely there and once the command becomes more consistent, he has a bright future. I drafted him in every league format where he was eligible to be rostered as I believe in his stuff that much.

ROYALS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Ian Kennedy 91.6 90.7 93.0
Danny Duffy 91.1 91.5 92.8

Duffy had a terrible 2018 debut, but it was not a velocity problem. Kennedy, conversely, was quite good in his 2018 debut and came out throwing a little harder than he finished 2017.

TIGERS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Jordan Zimmermann 90.9 92.5 92.1

Remember, the weather conditions in Detroit were not great, but Zimmermann did pitch very well off his slider in this outing. Chris Bosio is a magician as a pitching coach, so if he can get anything out of Zimmermann this season, he should be enshrined in Cooperstown. Zimmermann struck out eight, but was left in a bit too long and got saddled with four earned runs. I saw enough to be a bit more interested in him in AL-Only leagues than I was on draft day when he was not even on my list.

TWINS

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Jake Odorizzi 91.0 92.2 90.6
Kyle Gibson 91.7 92.4 90.6

Velocity is not the point with these guys, because they're both where they were last year. They both were heavier with their curveballs last weekend than they were in 2017. This was perhaps related to the matchup against Baltimore, which has a reputation to expand their strike zones. If Odorizzi is to get back to using the curveball that went on the shelf in 2017, sign me up as the curveball is a good pitch and the garbage cutter he used last year as a third pitch was not.

WHITE SOX

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Lucas Giolito 91.2 92.4 93.2
James Shields 89.3 90.1 90.9

I am somewhat concerned with Giolito as that is a 2 mph drop from early 2017, and he had just four swings-and-misses in 89 pitches against Kansas City while striking out one. His stuff is better than that, but the execution of his stuff remains inconsistent.

YANKEES

PITCHER2018 SEPT 2017APRIL 2017
Masahiro Tanaka 91.4 92.3 92.0
Luis Severino 97.9 98.1 96.3
CC Sabathia 89.5 90.1 90.6

It must be nice to be Severino these days. He got stronger as the season went on last year, and he has picked up where he left off this year. That is not bad for a guy, this time last year, they were not sure would work as a starting pitcher.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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