This article is part of our Oak's Corner series.
It sure is nice to have some real games, of course with real games comes slumping hitters, pitcher blow-ups and injuries. After so much excitement, it can be frustrating to start the year by running into a brick wall with your teams in week one. It's a long season and it's important to remember to not let one bad week get you down just because the standings look ugly now. It's key to stay focused, not get frustrated and, most importantly, don't make any rash decisions (I have seen it many times!) based on a week's worth of results.
The Week That Was
Toronto's Justin Smoak had a full (finally!) breakout in 2017, hitting .270 with 38 homers and 90 RBI. The biggest step forward was the drop in his strikeout rate from 32.8 percent in 2016 to 20.1 percent in 2017. Some of the buzz after 2017 was negative as Smoak struggled down the stretch hitting .213 with only eight homers after August 1 over 225 plate appearances. His ADP actually dropped a bit late in the season, as it was in the 150s for most of the draft season but was then 173 over 34 NFBC Main Event drafts in late March.
Usually, a breakout is met by more draft buzz than that, and if Smoak gets anywhere near replicating 2017, he'll be a huge steal at that draft price. If the first week of 2018 is any indication, he hasn't lost anything from 2017 as he already has nine RBI to go with a .385 batting average over his first seven games. He's hitting everything hard early on with a 50 percent hard hit rate and a silly 5.6 percent soft hit rate, and has yet to pop a ball up in the first week. I believe Smoak became a different hitter last year, and obviously you can't trade for him after his first week, but I'll look to make offers on him as soon as he settles into his first slump of the year.
Tim Anderson has had the best first fantasy baseball week of anyone across the league, mashing three homers while also stealing four bases (leading MLB) through his first six games. Anderson is a polarizing guy in fantasy circles, as he's clearly a skilled player, but his strikeout to walk rate leaves a ton to be desired. In 2017, he, incredibly, struck out 162 times while walking only 13 times. However, he managed a .328 BABIP to keep his batting average workable at .257 and posted 17 homers and 15 steals. His .283 batting average in his initial call-up in 2016 was helped even more by a .375 BABIP.
Clearly, it's too early to worry about walk or strikeout rates yet, but even in his great first week, he's been punched out eight times already in only 25 plate appearances. His hard hit rate has been strong so far in 2018, but his 2017 rate was only 28.3 percent, and paired with a 28 percent fly ball rate, it really puts a cap on his home run upside. His skill set is real, and maybe he bumps up the fly ball rate, but the lack of homer upside plus what I consider a huge batting average risk still puts him in the fade category for me. It looks like he's going to be looking for spots to run this year, but the lack of walks led to a .276 OBP in 2017, a number that will impair his opportunities to swipe a ton of bases. It's probably too early to sell high on Anderson, but I'd be looking to move him right now for any sort of significant increase in value from draft day after his monster first week.
Anderson's double play partner, Yoan Moncada, was hyped this draft season and settled in at an ADP of 120 across the NFBC Main Event drafts. Moncada showed extreme stolen base upside in the minors with 40-plus steals in both 2015 and 2016. I don't question the speed on Moncada, but he wasn't someone I targeted in drafts because I'm not sure he's ready to hit yet at the major league level. He's different from Anderson in that he walks a lot (12.6 percent in 54 MLB games in 2017), but he does share in Anderson's propensity to whiff. Moncada struck out a massive amount last year with the White Sox with a 32 percent strikeout rate. He managed a solid .325 BABIP (to be expected with his speed), but even with that number, he still hit only .231. The strikeouts weren't an aberration from being promoted to the minor leagues, as he struck out 28.3 percent of the time in AAA last year over 80 games, too.
Moncada did sport a 36 percent hard hit rate while with Chicago last season, so there could be some power coming as he hit 20 homers last season, but at 22 years old, I'm not sure he has yet grown into his power. The strikeouts have continued to start 2018, and after four punch outs on Thursday afternoon, he's now up to a 36.7 percent strikeout rate in the first week. He has hit leadoff in every game for the White Sox, which would be really good for his steals, but as a fantasy owner, I was a bit worried that he only swiped three last year in 54 games with the White Sox. He was a fade for me as an eighth-round pick (in 15 teamers) as I don't think the power and speed will be quite enough to make up for the batting average, and I think the big upside is a year or two away. If I owned him, I'd love a couple of big games so I could shop him around while the hype is still high.
Freddie Freeman was having a fantastic season in 2017 until he suffered a broken wrist after being hit by a pitch by Aaron Loup in May. Freeman returned in July, and while he hit well, he wasn't the same in the second half, and he mentioned that his wrist was still giving him issues even after his return. Freeman is starting 2018 as locked in as possible and looks fully healthy as he's hitting .421 through his first six games with two homers and nine runs and RBI. In some small sample size fun, his OPS is an absurd 1.515 and his walk rate is 34.5 percent. The walks are going to keep coming with Nick Markakis hitting behind him, as no one will come close to fearing him, but once Ronald Acuna is called up, the protection should improve for Freeman. I like Freeman to make a run at the NL MVP award this year and fully settle in to the first round in drafts in 2019.
Matt Harvey had a successful first start for the Mets, allowing only one hit and one walk while striking out five over five innings against the Phillies. The results were good, but I wanted to see some stuff for Harvey before becoming optimistic and I didn't. Granted, many guys have reduced velocity in April, but Harvey's fastball, which he threw 67.4 percent of the time in the first start, was only clocked at an average of 91.6 MPH, a far cry from his 96 MPH peak years, but also a big step down from the 93.8 MPH he averaged last year.
Harvey was throwing harder in the spring, and the pitching coach commented that the reduced velocity was due to the early season weather conditions, but it all feels like a lot of maybes. There were also quotes about how he's pitching smarter and competing harder. If I owned him, I'd hold for now and hope that is true and that he's learned to pitch with his new arsenal, but if he tosses up a few more good starts, I'd certainly look to move him.
I really liked Sean Manaea heading into 2017 and that all looked good as he posted a 3.76 ERA in 91.1 first half innings. It fell apart in the second half, as Manaea struggled with a 5.23 ERA over his last 65.1 innings, and his strikeouts dropped way off from 8.97 K/9 to 6.46 K/9 in the second half. News came out at the end of the season that he lost 25 pounds in just a few months during the season due to dosage issues with ADD medication that led him having no appetite. Manaea's velocity hasn't bumped back up from the drop last season, which is a concern at 90.5 MPH, but like Harvey, it could be an early season issue.
Even during his rough 2017, the swinging strike rate still remained solid at 11.3 percent and through two starts this year, that number has bumped to 12.7 percent even though he has only struck out 11 batters through 15.2 innings. I sat right behind home plate for Manaea's first start and came away especially impressed with the changeup. He spotted everything well, and his pitch sequencing was excellent, which could be a benefit of having Jonathan Lucroy now catching for him. I noticed his velocity was in the 91 to 92 range early on and fell off in the last couple of innings, which makes me feel better than the lower velocity was mostly a stamina issue late in the game. Manaea pitches in a great park, and while the A's offense has been slumbering early on in the season, I think they'll score runs this year and give Manaea solid chances at wins. I'm going to closely watch Manaea's velocity over the next few starts, and if it bumps up a little, particularly as he gets deeper into the game, I'm full speed go on Manaea's prospects this season.
FAAB Feelings
Yonny Chirinos: Chirinos had a solid campaign in the minor leagues as a 23-year-old in Triple-A. In 141 innings, he posted a 2.74 ERA (and a sweet Whip under 1.00) while only walking 1.40 batters per nine. On the downside, he only struck out 7.66 batters per nine in those Triple-A innings, and a glance at his strikeouts show them as below average in most of his time in the minors. On the flip side, though, the great walk numbers were the norm for him, as he has exhibited elite control throughout his career. He toed the rubber in Fenway Park on Thursday in a start for the Rays, and the results were great, as he twirled five shutout innings, allowing only three hits while walking no one.
Chirinos relies on his command of three pitches to keep hitters off balance, but without the strikeout numbers and tossing in the Al East, I'm a little worried about his potential upside, as he walks a fine line without the Ks to fall back on in fantasy leagues. I watched his start Thursday and liked what I saw and will bid on him in 15 teamers for sure, as a live arm with a history of strong Whip numbers, but I think the five shutout innings in a big spot in Fenway might price me out on him. I'm a bit more bearish in 12-teamers, as the options on the waiver wire are more plentiful, but while I'll bid, it likely will be on the smaller side. Amazingly, he's zero percent owned in NFBC Main Events and only one percent in NFBC 12-team leagues. It's rare to get someone with such extremely low ownership percentages, and the bidding certainly will be active on him this weekend.
Kyle Gibson This is a bit of a scary one, as I think we've all been burned at some point by trying to stream Gibson. His numbers last season on the whole were pretty ugly with a 5.07 ERA over 158 innings and 29 starts, but a closer look shows a different pitcher late in the season. After a horrendous 6.31 ERA in 81.1 first half innings, Gibson sported a 3.76 ERA over his 76.2 second half innings. Most remarkably, he boosted his 5.64 K/9 first half strikeout rate to 8.22 K/9 in the second half, while cutting his walks down from 4.20 BB/9 to 2.58 BB/9. He also improved in his batted ball numbers, dropping his hard hit rate over six percent in the second half, while maintaining his 51 percent ground ball rate.
All Gibson did in his first start of 2018 was toss six no-hit innings, but note that he did walk five batters while striking out six. He followed up that with a less than exciting outing against the Mariners on Thursday, allowing seven hits over 4.1 innings, but he allowed only one earned run. Depending on how the Twins want to set up their rotation with the off day Friday, he has a chance at two starts next week with home games against Houston and the White Sox. I'm going to watch the Twins news closely this weekend, as I won't add him if he has just one start against the Astros. If he gets two starts, I'll take a risk on this streamer with the hope that the second half gains were real.
A Closer Look
The Brewers closer situation opened up in a pretty big way on Thursday night, when Corey Knebel collapsed after throwing a pitch and immediately went on the DL with a hamstring injury. It didn't look good watching the clip, but he'll undergo an MRI Friday to ascertain the extent of the damage. The popular add right away likely will be Josh Hader, but he also was drafted in most leagues, including all 34 NFBC Main Event leagues. Hader, a starter in the minor leagues, spent 2017 as a reliever after being called up in June and responded with a 2.08 ERA in 47.2 innings while striking out 12.84 batters per nine. He did have an issue with walks, giving up a walk rate of 4.15 BB/9, a problem he had as starter in the minor leagues, too. Craig Counsell didn't give any indication after the game regarding who might close, but if Hader is available in your league, he should be bid on for the strikeouts alone, plus the possible saves if he inherits the role. I think there's a good chance that the Brewers leave Hader in his current role and use one of their righties to close out games.
Jeremy Jeffress comes in with the "closer experience" after locking down 27 saves in 2016, but he really scuffled in 2017, walking 4.68 batters per nine with a strikeout rate just over 7.00 K/9. He struggled with homers, allowing 10 in only 65.1 innings in route to a 4.68 ERA. The guy who I'm most interested in if the job doesn't immediately go to Hader is Jacob Barnes. Barnes struggled with walks in 2017 with a walk rate of 4.13 BB/9, but this was his first season over 4.00 BB/9 at any level since 2012. He also boosted his K Rate to 10.00 K/9 in 2017, which was supported by an elite 15.4 percent swinging strike rate.
A significant part of the decision on whom to bid and how much to bid will depend on how long Knebel is out, whether Counsell makes any formal closer announcement and, perhaps most importantly, who picks up any save opportunities the Brewers have over the weekend. As of now, Hader seems like an easy grab in smaller leagues where he may be available, and in 12 and 15 team leagues, I'm leaning toward attacking Barnes, especially if the injury to Knebel is as serious as it looked Thursday night.
Series of the Weekend
Mets at Washington. With the wacky schedule over the first couple of weeks to account for possible weather and opening days, this series already started Thursday and features an off day Friday. The NL East was thought to be an easy walkover for the Nationals in 2018, and while one week in baseball means very little, the Mets have been feisty to start with a 5-1 record and whacked the Nats Thursday 8-2, highlighted by a Jay Bruce grand slam. The Mets pitching has been quite stingy to start the year, allowing a league fewest 15 runs over their first six games. The Mets will send Steven Matz and Matt Harvey to the mound this weekend in Washington, in the hopes of building on their first starts, and, more than that, trying to get healthy seasons from each of them.
The Nats have scored plenty of runs with their stacked lineup so far, averaging more than five runs a game, but they have allowed nearly six runs per contest. However, that total is skewed by the 10 spot allowed by A.J. Cole in his first start of the year. The Nats will send Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark to the hill to face the Mets this weekend, and while it's obviously way too early to be remotely concerned with the standings and results, if the Mets could win a couple more games this weekend on the road, they might just do enough to get on the Nationals' radar.
Coming off his 2017 ACL surgery, Adam Eaton has been on fire out of the gate, posting a .455 average and has already scored 10 runs. Eaton did leave Thursday's game early with some discomfort in his ankle after an awkward slide. X-rays were negative, and he expects to be back in action soon. If he can stay healthy, the amount of runs he could score this season could be scary.
