Collette Calls: Early Season Oddities

We all have our favorite jams that we like to hear certain times of the year. There are cold nights here in North Carolina where I enjoy listening to The Head and the Heart's "Let's Be Still" while my wife and I sit around the firepit in the backyard. I enjoy David Bowie's "Modern Love" as a song to start a jog when I go out running. I cannot help but hum part of "Landed" by Ben Folds Five when I'm walking up the jetway from one of the many flights I take a year. However, when it comes to the early part of the baseball season, I have a particular favorite jam that I found years ago and wish someone would update it because the examples are a bit outdated for some, but still hilarious nonetheless:

Let's look at some of the high-level and individual small samples that we should mostly ignore, but not completely dismiss as it could be a harbinger of things to come. These are also data points to use to your advantage in early trade talks with panicked owners.

Heading into last weekend, 84 players had stolen a base. None of those players were named Billy Hamilton, Whit Merrifield, Elvis Andrus or Jose Reyes, each of whom finished in the top 10 for steals in 2017. Those players' owners likely were freaked out a bit, especially those who went after Hamilton in the first five rounds, and Andrus and Reyes are still looking for their first stolen bases.

The league-wide home run rate is off to an interesting start as well. We have seen the league-wide home run rate surge each of the last three seasons, but to date, that trend is regressing a bit:

The first thought that comes to mind is that cold weather from the early start is to blame. That certainly is a factor, but it is worth noting that early home run rates do not vary much from full season rates. The table below shows how March/April home run data compares to the full-season home run per plate appearance data since 2010:

2015 was the one season where we saw a four-point jump from the early home run rate to the final-season rate. Otherwise, the early rates have been anywhere from a 2.5 point decline to a 3.3 point increase. It would take an anomaly for the 2018 full-season home run rate to get to where the 2017 season was. Those who factored in a bit of regression on power projections this year are looking good so far.

We also have a bit of pitching oddities happening. At a macro level, the league is already striking out at a higher rate than it did last year, which is not surprising given the league-wide strikeout rate has worsened every year this decade. What is odd, so far, about 2018 is that the league is struggling to throw strikes. The league-wide walk rate is 9.4 percent, and that figure has never been higher than 8.5 percent in a previous season. Pitchers have thrown 43.5 percent of their pitches in the zone this season, a decade low, and their 58.8 percent first-pitch strike rate ties with 2010 for the lowest percentage. One would have to think this is an area where the unusually cold weather due to the early start is impacting pitchers simply because pitchers lose the feel for the baseball pitching in colder weather. Jeff Samardzijaonce said baseballs are like pool cue balls in cold weather.

That may explain some of the individual pitching oddities we see early in the season. It should not be surprising that Max Scherzer and Chris Sale lead baseball in swings and misses. What is surprising is that both the wily vet Cole Hamels and the young Caleb Smith have more swinging strikes to date than does Chris Archer through two starts. The 11 strikeouts Hamels piled up against Oakland in his dominant outing on April 3 was a flashback to his glory days, and he has used more cutters and breaking balls this year while dialing back on his fastball, which barely hits 90 these days.

Smith has had two starts – a surprisingly dominant one against the Cubs and a rather abhorrent one against Philadelphia. Hamels reminds us that there is value in rostering vets at a discount on draft day, but the fact he is already 20 percent of the way to his 2017 strikeout total that he accumulated over 24 starts in just two early starts also reminds us of the fun in small sample sizes. However, there are a few other interesting early season pitching performances to investigate.

Patrick Corbin – 42 percent strikeout rate through two starts. I guess he read my bold prediction saying I did not like him to take a step forward this year. He was rather effective on Opening Day against the Rockies in Phoenix and then flat out dominated the Dodgers. All lefties have a decent change against the Dodgers, but only two runners reached base, and he struck out half of the 24 batters he faced. A peek at his early pitch utilization shows a heavy dose of his great slider – 45 percent to be exact. When you have a great pitch, you should throw the crap out of it, and that is what Corbin is doing this year as he has thrown all fastballs and breaking balls with just two changeups to show. The big reason I did not like him this year as much as the crowd was because he was shelving the changeup and he has had troubles getting righties out throughout his career. Keep an eye on how he handles righties the rest of April, but this could be the breakout others hoped for.

Odrisamer Despaigne – a 21 percent strikeout rate over two starts. That number, on its own, is not large, but we're talking about a pitcher who has had a 12.5 percent strikeout rate the last three seasons. He has only started one game but has now appeared in three as the Marlins try to figure out a way to piece together a rotation. Despaigne has not kept runners off the board yet, but it is still rather surprising to see someone of this caliber with as many swings and misses as Corey Kluber despite throwing 64 fewer pitches than The Klubot. All that said, get a load of his delivery against Kris Bryant:

Oddity indeed. You try timing this! pic.twitter.com/PpGUwCF4w6

— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) April 7, 2018