MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

In my lifetime, the shortstop for the Yankees has typically been a pricey fantasy commodity.

That hasn't been the case since 2015, when Didi Gregorius took over as the team's starter at the position while quietly posting a 3.1-fWAR season as a 25-year-old. Despite playing in 155 games that season, he hit just nine homers, which only increased concerns that he might be a slick, glove-first shortstop with a bat that left plenty to be desired.

In 2016, Gregorius hit the ball in the air more frequently, and he more than doubled his home-run output to 20. Maybe it was just the byproduct of the short porch at Yankee Stadium? Probably not, as he hit 11 long balls at home compared to nine on the road that season, before following up his first 20-homer season with a 25-homer effort a year ago (12 home, 13 road).

The NFBC ADP for Gregorius moved up to 120th overall in 2018, making him a late eighth-round pick in 15-team leagues, and a late 10th-rounder in 12-teamers. Perhaps the concern was that the addition of Giancarlo Stanton would bump him out of the clean-up spot in 2018? Through 14 games, he's been in that spot 10 times this season, with two games hitting fifth and one hitting sixth (plus a day off).

I'm pretty sure Bernie Pleskoff has told me on every episode of Short Hops we have ever recorded that Didi is going to be one of the best shortstops in the game.

When the D-backs got him from the Reds?

Bernie loved him.

When the Yankees got him from the D-backs?

Bernie loved him even more.

I always laughed it off as something we simply didn't agree on, and I made a point to give Bernie the Bowman Chrome rookie card of Didi that I pulled when I bought a box on a whim a few springs ago.

It's easy to wonder if the lack of greater interest in Gregorius is the byproduct of the few things he hasn't done well -- most notably, his inability to draw walks (career .316 OBP, 5.8% BB%) -- which for owners in standard 5x5 leagues, is offset by his ability to hit for average (.276 or better annually since 2016) and put the ball in play frequently. Last season's power surge was accompanied by another step forward in flyball rate, and the early returns in 2018 include the highest flyball rate of his career (51.1%) and a surprisingly strong 11:3 BB:K (18.3% BB%, 5.0% K%).

Keep an eye on his plate discipline and batted-ball profile in the weeks ahead, as sustaining even some of the early gains would be a big step forward and increase his chances of keeping the role in the lineup he's held for the Yankees thus far.

If we were running a draft this week, and the stats to this point didn't count, how much earlier would you draft him?

Risers

Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA -- Much like Matt Chapman in Oakland, Haniger is having a fast start that is propped up by some potential skills growth. When he debuted with Arizona in 2016, Haniger popped five homers in 123 plate appearances thanks in part to a 43.4% flyball rate. That aspect of his profile shifted in the wrong direction last season with the Mariners, as he dropped to 36.7% while trading flyballs for groundballs. To begin 2018, the flyball rate is back up, and the swinging-strike rate has dipped for the second straight season (from 8.7 to 7.7%), which has allowed him to put the ball in play more frequently as he's lowered his strikeout rate (from 22.7% to 14.5%). A closer look at Haniger reveals a few things that are happening -- including a significantly higher contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone (71.0%, up from 58.7% last season), and a slight increase to his swing rate on those pitches. If he wasn't rostered in 10-team mixed leagues to begin the season, he should be now, and his 8:8 BB:K through 55 plate appearances is worth monitoring. 


Nick Pivetta, SP, PHI -- In many leagues, the race to get Pivetta from the waiver wire was run last week, following his nine-strikeout, 5.2-scoreless inning start against the Marlins. In more shallow leagues, he was likely snapped up on the heels of his follow-up against the Reds: 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 7 K, 0 BB. A 19:2 K:BB in 16.2 innings will get everybody's attention very quickly. As a sort of Nick Pivetta hipster (I picked him up all over last season when I was desperate for an arm with upside), I'm sad to be on the outside looking in at a possible breakout. The early adjustments to his arsenal include a slightly reduced fastball usage rate, an increased dependence on his curveball, and a nearly scrapped changeup. That series of adjustments is very logical, as opponents slugged .727 against the change last season, and .562 against his four-seamer (14 of his 25 homers allowed came against those two pitches). Meanwhile, his curveball was very effective (.368 SLG), despite the fact that it induced whiffs at a lower rate than his slider.

The Marlins and Reds have been bottom-five teams against right-handed pitching early on (sub-75 wRC+), but Pivetta's adjustments should be enough to shave two full runs off of last season's 6.02 ERA over 133 innings.

Joey Lucchesi, SP, SD -- I watched Lucchesi's first start against the Brewers closer than I've watched most of his performances since, but he looked much more comfortable in a home start against Colorado before quieting the Rockies at Coors Failed on April 10, and subsequently shutting down the Giants on Sunday with a nine-strikeout showing. The lack of strikeouts during his time as a 24-year-old at Double-A last season (7.9 K/9) were the only drawback to his success at that level a year ago. Lucchesi (pronounced: Lou Casey) has shown a three-pitch mix featuring a four-seamer (90.3 mph), changeup and curveball, with a delivery that makes his pitches play up due to his deception and ability to disrupt the timing of opposing hitters. Despite the early success, it will be very interesting to see what happens when teams in the division get multiple looks at him (even though the Rockies didn't seem to figure it out the second time around, in back-to-back turns). The Steamer projection system has updated to yield a 3.64 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 for Lucchesi's rookie campaign -- considerably better than system's current ratios output for Pivetta (4.29 ERA, 1.33 WHIP -- 9.3 K/9) -- and numbers that would make Lucchesi a league-altering early pickup if he delivers upon them in the months ahead.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, NYM -- For years, I thought the Mets made a big mistake in the draft by taking Nimmo is a first-rounder out of high school in Wyoming. Nothing ever stood out in his profile as he advanced through the minors, but he often showed a good approach at the plate while proving to be a capable option in center field. Even with Michael Conforto back from his shoulder injury, Nimmo led off for the Mets on Monday night, although Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes were given a night off as Juan Lagares also made a start. Although he's started just five games this season, every time he's started he's been in the leadoff spot, and it helps his cause that he does two things particularly well -- play good defense in center and get on base at a high clip -- that most of the alternatives struggle with. Keep in mind, the Mets can play Bruce at first base, bail on Adrian Gonzalez, shift Conforto to right, and lean on Nimmo as their regular in center field if they desire.

Adam Ottavino, RP, COL -- Ottavino won't close out games for the Rockies unless Wade Davis lands on the DL at some point. Still, he was one of the most-added players over the weekend as teams shuffled their rosters in hopes of finding a viable source of good ratios and strikeouts. Ottavino tacked on two more strikeouts in a scoreless frame Monday night, bumping his season strikeout rate to an impressive 64.7% K% (he's fanned 22 of the first 34 batters he's faced). Ottavino has always had an excellent slider, and he's opened 2018 throwing it more than ever before (more than 53 percent of the time prior to Monday's appearance). I wish I had him on the rosters where I used Emilio Pagan as an early-season staff filler.

Fallers

Luis Castillo, SP, CIN -- My colleague Todd Zola considered the explanations for Castillo's sluggish start in last week's Z Files column, and while I believe it's still anyone's guess as to why he hasn't been himself yet, the underlying numbers are a mixed bag. Castillo's fastball velocity is down two mph from his rookie season (from 97.5 to 95.5 mph), and he's thrown more changeups while slightly reducing the use of his fastball and slider. Despite the changes, Castillo's swinging-strike rate is up (from 12.6 to 14.6%), as he's getting more swings outside the strike zone and avoiding contact more frequently when hitters chase those pitches. After watching his start Monday against the Brewers, nothing appears to be wrong. In fact, I came away very impressed by the effectiveness of his changeup, which may have been an under-discussed aspect of his arsenal during his rookie season. Opponents hit .138 with a .207 slugging percentage against Castillo's changeup last season, while the offering generated whiffs at a 23.3% rate. Don't be fooled by the final line from his start against Milwaukee -- Castillo had a nine-run lead as he eclipsed 100 pitches with six scoreless innings under his belt before a two-out double from reliever Jorge Lopez drove in a pair of runs. Cody Reed took over with two runners in scoring position, and he allowed them both to score, putting four on Castillo's ledger. The concerns/flaws with his supporting cast are unchanged, but I would happily deal for Castillo right now if there is a willing seller.

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS -- When a surprise performer from the previous year slumps to begin the current one, we often panic. I have a few teams with Zimmerman holding the first base or corner-infield spot, and most of the teams are disappointing because he's one of a few slow starters on those rosters. The early batted-ball profile is nearly identical to last season, as he's making hard contact more than 40 percent of the time in 2018, and limiting soft contact to fewer than 15 percent of his batted balls. He's also cut his ground ball rate while increasing the number of line drives he's hit. In terms of selectivity, he's not chasing pitches outside the strike zone at an increased rate, but he is making contact less frequently when he chases, which has nudged up his swinging-strike rate slightly (from 10.0% last season to 10.8% entering play Monday night). The concern if he doesn't begin to wake up at the plate comes from the presence of Matt Adams, whose short-term outlet has been collecting time in left field with Adam Eaton on the DL and Brian Goodwin hobbled by a major injury. While this early slump may cost him playing time, or lead him to a lower spot in the order, it doesn't appear as though anything is really broken for him at the moment.

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, CHC -- I had an opportunity to deal for Happ while I was putting this column together, the prevailing feeling about adding him to a team in need of an offensive boost was that I didn't feel comfortable buying in since the Cubs have the luxury of depth on the big-league roster. With an alarming 45.8% K% through 12 games, Happ's home run on the first pitch of the 2018 season has mostly been forgotten. The Cubs have been using him as their leadoff man when he plays, and he'll lose that role soon enough if a bad couple weeks turn into a bad first month. Additionally, the Cubs can option him back to Triple-A if desired -- it's happened with Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras in recent years too. In keeper leagues, he makes sense as a buy-target for owners choosing a future lean at the present time. In redraft settings, it's difficult to imagine getting a deal done at a discount that buyer and seller can agree upon.

Michael Wacha, SP, STL -- A postponement Monday allowed the Cards to shuffle their rotation for the upcoming week, giving Wacha a few extra days before his next start at home against the Reds (he was previously lined up to take on the Cubs at Wrigley). Wacha became a regular target for my rotations this draft season thanks to his availability outside the Top-200 overall, and his improved skills from last season (career-high 8.6 K/9, 48.0% GB%). Through his first three starts, Wacha has lost at least a full mile-per-hour from each of his offerings, including a fastball velocity drop from 95.1 mph last season to 92.9. Not surprisingly, his swinging-strike rate has bottomed out at a career-worst 7.6%, and the early signs are pointing toward another frustrating season -- perhaps in line with his 2016 numbers: 5.09 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 138 IP.

Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR -- Grichuk has struggled with fastballs early this season, which is not typically a flaw in his skill set, and he's been hitting a ton of fly balls with less hard contact than ever. It's fair to wonder if he might be hiding an injury, given shifting batted-ball profile, but he's also pulling the ball less than ever, which makes me wonder if there is something he's trying to change mechanically with his swing. Typically, the free-swinging Grichuk generates a lot of power at the expense of an inflated K% and a lower walk rate and OBP that teams covet from their sources of pop. This season, Grichuk has chased pitches out of the strike zone less than ever (30.6 O-Swing%), but he's making less contact on swings in and out of the zone. The Jays called up Teoscar Hernandez over the weekend when Josh Donaldson was placed on the 10-day DL, and it will be interesting to see how the roster is adjusted once Donaldson is ready to be activated, as Hernandez and Grichuk don't fit particularly well on the same roster as long as Kevin Pillar, Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce are all in the mix for center and left field. Don't be surprised if he becomes available in 12-team mixed leagues in the near future, and be prepared to scoop him up if that happens.

Lewis Brinson, OF, MIA — The Marlins gave Brinson an opportunity to begin the season in the leadoff role, but he's hit sixth or seventh since April 8 while opening the year with a .131/.185/.131 line through 15 games. Last season, the Brewers played Brinson sporadically during his stints on the 25-man roster, which makes it difficult to put too much stock into his slow start as a big-league player. He'll turn 24 in May, and while he'll likely spend most of the season in center field in Miami, it's very easy to see a path back to Triple-A for a few weeks if the struggles persist, which would also give the Marlins an opportunity to limit his service time and potentially prevent him from accruing a full year of service time in 2018. If that demotion happens, it might pave the way for Cameron Maybin to see an uptick in playing time.