MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

What if you had one mulligan for each of your drafts?

Let's assume that in this more forgiving fantasy landscape, injuries have been turned off all season -- the way you could remove them from the equation in NHL 95.

What would you go back and change?

Would you save it for a few more weeks in order to get a longer read on the player pool?

In an auction, maybe it was a player you were too aggressive with while price enforcing. Maybe it was a situation where you wanted to go the extra dollar, but decided not to. In a draft, maybe you felt that Domingo Santana vs. Joey Gallo was a toss-up, and you decided that the swing-and-miss risk of Gallo exceeded the playing time concerns facing Santana in a crowded Brewers outfield.

The early weeks of the season wreak havoc on our emotions.

As players' lines wildly fluctuate throughout March and April, our confidence can follow a similar pattern.

My 2018 regret is not being aggressive enough with Rafael Devers.

The early signs are pointing toward last year's skills being stable, and as a 21-year-old in a loaded Boston lineup, the rapid growth potential is nearly unmatched.

Have a draft-day decision you definitely want back? Share it in the comments section below.

Risers

Javier Baez, 2B/SS, CHC -- Baez hit three homers over the past week, lifting his season total to seven, while pushing his slash line to .292/.363/.736 (1.099) after wrapping up a weekend series against the Rockies at Coors Field. In parts of four seasons in the big leagues, Baez's swinging-and-miss tendencies and low walk rate often off-set his raw power, speed, and ability as a plus defender in the middle infield. The early signs are pointing to a breakout for the 25-year-old, as he's shown improved discipline with fewer strikeouts than ever (21.3%), along with his best walk rate (7.5%) and a higher flyball rate (39.6%) than each of his two full campaigns. The underlying adjustment has been a higher rate of swings on pitches inside the strike zone (career-high 80.2% Z-Swing%) paired with an increased rate of contact when he swings at pitches outside the zone (O-Contact% 60.0%). Baez's strong start has also helped him move up in the batting order, as he hit second in four straight games to close out the week after beginning the season as the Cubs' No. 8 hitter.

Franchy Cordero, OF, SD -- As high-risk, high-reward players go, Cordero is one of the most interesting in the player pool right now. Statcast data shows that his raw power -- based on exit velocity -- is elite, as he's already hit three balls at more than 115 mph this season (only Giancarlo Stanton has more with five). That power was on full display at Chase Field on Friday night when Cordero took a 90 mph pitch from Matt Koch and smacked it off the facing the center field scoreboard approximately 489 feet away.

In addition to the raw power, Cordero runs very well, rankings 15th overall on the Sprint Speed Leaderboard, and he's flashed the look of a well above average, and possibly elite defender. That final trait might be critically important, as the Padres will need a reason to keep him in the lineup regularly against righties in stretches when he's struggling to make contact. With a 41.0% K% through 139 career plate appearances at the big-league level (he's at 32.5% K% in 2018), concerns about Cordero's hit tool are warranted, but the Padres might be wise to see if he can become a 20-20 player in 2018 with 500 plate appearances, making him a regular part of the plan in left and center field (when Manny Margot gets a day off).

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, TOR -- Like Cordero, Hernandez has been a Statcast "darling" of sorts in his limited exposure to big-league pitching. Last season, Hernandez finished eighth in MLB in barrel rate (9.5%) among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. He's atop the barrel-rate leaderboard to begin 2018 (21.1%) as well. A productive late-season promotion in 2017 put him on the radar is a potential top-75 outfielder at the outset of draft season. As the Jays made moves to bolster the veteran depth in their outfield with the signing of Curtis Granderson and the trade for Randal Grichuk, Hernandez's path to playing time became longer. Injuries to Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales, along with an early slump from Grichuk have opened the door, at least for now, and Hernandez picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, swatting three homers in the first eight games he's spent with the Jays, giving him 11 in 123 plate appearances in a Toronto uniform. Hernandez has started eight straight games in left field entering play Monday, while he's hit second in the order in all of those contests. A Granderson-Grichuk platoon in right field appears to be in order now, leaving Steve Pearce to work on the small side of a platoon between first base and DH.

Mac Williamson, OF, SF -- After crushing his stint at rookie ball in 2012 and swatting 25 homers in the California League in 2013, Williamson emerged on some top-100 prospects lists the following winter. A third-round pick out of Wake Forest, Williamson was supposed to have enough raw power become a fixture in San Francisco in the years ahead, but he failed took a big step back with the move to Double-A in 2015, which included playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Richmond in the Eastern League. He's shuttled between San Francisco and Sacramento over the past two seasons, padding his career line in the PCL at .264/.339/.476 through 885 plate appearances. Williamson sought out the help of hitting coach Doug Latta over the winter, who helped transform Justin Turner's career after Turner was acquired by the Dodgers. After tearing the cover off the ball in spring training (1.061 OPS, four homers), Williamson did the same in his return to Sacramento (1.626 OPS, six homers in 50 plate appearances) before getting recalled by the Giants with Hunter Pence on the 10-day DL. He started each game of the team's series in Anaheim over the weekend, homering in his season debut Friday night, and should get every opportunity to prove himself as an upgrade over Pence in the coming weeks.

Sean Manaea, SP, OAK -- Throwing a no-hitter is a pretty easy path into the 'Risers' section of this piece. Manaea was having a nice opening month before he took his place in history Saturday night against the Red Sox. Looking at the ratios (and BABIP) of a pitcher with a no-no steeped into the first five starts will typically yield some gaudy numbers (1.23 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, .130 BABIP). There are two particular areas in which Manaea has shown improvement early -- his walk rate (currently at a career-low 4.6%, 1.5 BB/9) and his groundball rate (a career-high 48.4%). Considering that he's missed bats at a near league-average clip throughout his time in Oakland, the ceiling might be similar to Jose Quintana's 2015 and 2016 campaigns with the White Sox, which makes Manaea's value hinge on his ability to remain efficient in his starts and healthy throughout the season. He's topped 160 innings across all levels in each of the last two seasons, so 185-190 is probably a reasonable ceiling.

Fallers

Sonny Gray, SP, NYY -- Google 'Sonny Gray' at your leisure and click on the news tab. You'll find an assortment of negative headlines, most of which you would expect for a Yankees starting pitcher with an ERA north of 8.00 through four starts. Among those links, there is of course the notion that Gray is cut from the same cloth as Javier Vasquez, A.J. Burnett and Carl Pavano, which probably oversimplifies the individual flaws of all parties involved, while further building upon some vague notion that players can experience uniquely insurmountable pressure trying to perform in New York. Sonny Gray probably isn't George Costanza. Most of his struggles seem to stem from the early surge on his walk rate (6.1 BB/9; career 3.0) In terms of velocity, nothing has changed since last season, which is a very encouraging sign for those waiting and hoping for a turnaround. If there is an owner in your league panicking about the swollen ratios, there's still plenty here to like.

Evan Gattis, C, HOU -- It may be difficult to think of a player who has been in the lineup for the Astros in 19 of the first 24 games as a faller, but with Yulieski Gurriel back from the disabled list, things are slightly more crowded now in Houston. Gattis has made one appearance at catcher in 2018, logging just two innings behind the plate, and making all 19 of his starts as the team's DH. After hitting a career-low 12 homers in 325 plate appearances in 2017, Gattis entered play Monday night with a .333 SLG and six extra-base hits (one homer) through 78 plate appearances. Perhaps even more troubling, is that his strikeout rate has spiked to a career-worst 28.2%, after he cut that mark to a career-best 15.4% mark last season. While it hasn't started happening yet, the Astros have the depth necessary to replace him with ease, as top prospect Kyle Tucker could be added to the outfield mix if he heats up in the coming weeks, allowing manager A.J. Hinch to displace Gattis in the DH spot with a rotation of the team's outfielders and super utility option Marwin Gonzalez.


Neil Walker, INF, NYY -- A surge in groundballs has been a driving force behind Walker's quiet start to his time in the Bronx (.183/.246/.217). Gleyber Torres was called up by the Yankees on Sunday, and Miguel Andujar has been heating up at the plate, which could leave Walker in a bind once Brandon Drury (migraines) is back from the DL or when Greg Bird returns from his ankle injury in May. Walker was on the bench for the fourth time in the last seven games Monday, which is making it difficult to roster him even in mid-sized mixed leagues. The case against dropping him is the potential interest that other clubs might have in using him as a regular if the Yankees opt to deal him elsewhere as their crowded infield gets healthier over the course of the next month.

Devon Travis, 2B, TOR -- Admittedly, I thought Travis had the potential to be a useful endgame solution at second base with a path to begin the season as the Blue Jays' leadoff hitter and everyday option at the keystone. Instead, he's struck out at an alarming 29.1% rate (a career-high; his career mark is 20.0%) while checking in as one of the worst regulars in the league in terms of WAR (-0.5 according to FanGraphs). Lourdes Gurriel was called up by the Jays for the weekend series against the Yankees, and Travis enters play Tuesday having started just two of the team's last six games. The early-season struggles dropped him from the leadoff spot after just five starts, and he's hit eighth or ninth in every game he's started since April 6.

Gerardo Parra, OF, COL -- The Rockies left the door open for Parra to take on a meaningful role as a placeholder for David Dahl to begin the season. Through 21 games, he's delivered a .217/.280/.290 line, doing nothing to ensure that he'll be given his job back upon returning from a four-game suspension Friday. Dahl was called up by the Rockies on Sunday after he was slowed by an illness at Triple-A Albuquerque to begin the season. Between Parra and Carlos Gonzalez (.235/.264/.426 before hitting the DL with a hamstring injury), the Rockies have two easy paths to use Dahl against righties, and both veterans are only under contract through the end of the 2018 season, unlike Ian Desmond, who is likely entrenched at first base for 2018 as he's in Year 2 of a five-year pact with $38 million guaranteed from 2019-2021.

Matt Harvey, RP, NYM -- The Mets dropped Harvey from their rotation over the weekend after he allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. With an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP at 1.43, the Mets will give Harvey an opportunity to contribute out of the bullpen, where he should pick up a few ticks on his fastball, which has checked in at an average velocity of 92.5 mph thus far (a career-low mark). Jason Vargas' upcoming return from the DL prompted the move, but Zack Wheeler is also staying in the rotation ahead of Harvey after he made a brief stop at Triple-A to begin the season. Last season, Harvey's fastball graded out as his worst offering by a wide margin. If he can generate more whiffs with that pitch while working out of the bullpen, he may have a chance to emerge as a useful staff filler. Baseball was more fun when #HarveyDay was a good thing.