Oak's Corner: Overcoming the Injury Blues

I wrote prior to the season about how important it was to not get too low in the bad parts of the season or too high in the good parts of the season, but boy have I been tested on that this week. With Robinson Cano's broken hand and drug suspension two days later on one of my NFBC Main Event teams and A.J. Pollock on the other one team that had started very well, this was a rough week. I know, no one wants to hear about your injury luck (by the way, my wife really doesn't want to hear about it if you're wondering), but this makes a good time to point out that the season is long, and you just have to find a way to manage through them. My chances at an overall prize took a huge shot with the Pollock injury, but I have also made a number of self-induced mistakes with my pitching that has hurt me just as much.

The injuries don't necessarily even out over the season, and while I may have hit a bad run early on, everyone is going to go through some bad injury stretches, especially in this season when it seems like everyone is getting drilled by pitches in the wrist. Now that I'm over the initial cursing my luck stage of the week, I'm looking forward to the challenge of trying to fix my team in the next couple of weeks and get it headed back in the right direction. That challenge is one of the most fun and rewarding parts of season-long fantasy baseball, and while significant injuries are insanely frustrating, the best part of fantasy baseball is that they can be dealt with using strong free agent bidding and weekly lineup management. I hope we all dodge the injury bug the rest of the way, but make sure to meet the challenge head on when needed!

The Week That Was

It feels like we have been waiting forever for the Brandon Belt breakout. Even though he has had some great stretches, a combination of his home park and injuries leaves us with the amazing fact that Belt has never topped 18 homers in any season. Assuming any sort of decent health the rest of the way, Belt looks poised to fly by that mark this season. The Giants first baseman slugged his 10th homer on Thursday night and already has 25 runs scored and 25 RBI to go with his .302 average. Belt has had a solid hard hit rate in the high 30s in the last three years but has ramped up that number this season which currently sits at 48.1 percent.

Belt has increased his line drive rate from 2017, and he's also hitting 51 percent fly balls through the first quarter of the season. The average is being boosted by a .361 BABIP, which will falls a bit as the season goes on, but if he can maintain some of the hard hit gains, I think he can settle in at .275-.280 when it's all said and done. He looks as locked in as he ever has in his career, and it's fun to see it finally all come together. If he stays healthy, I see him not only hitting 20 homers for the first time but also making a strong run at 30. He's a full hold for me at the moment, hitting in the middle of the Giants order, and I'm not looking to sell high on him.

Speaking of selling high, I'm doing everything I can to sell Tyler Chatwood high if I own him right now. Chatwood had some draft helium this season as he was moving out of Coors Field to the Cubs, especially when drafters noticed his 3.49 ERA away from Coors in 2017. So far this season, Chatwood has looked good on the surface, posting a 3.14 ERA through his first eight starts with the Cubs and also posting a career-high 8.38 K/9 strikeout rate. He had a big problem last year with walks, issuing 4.69 walks per nine, but that problem has exploded this year at a 7.12 BB/9 walk rate. He has incredibly walked five or more batters in five of eight starts so far this season. That's a crazy number and has greatly impacted his ugly 1.49 Whip that does come along with the nice ERA.

Chatwood's BABIP is currently 33 points below his career average, and it's not like he is suppressing hard contract especially well with a hard hit rate of 32.7 percent, the second highest number of his career. His HR/FB rate is an absurdly lucky three percent and while his strength is getting ground balls, that number is still going to go significantly up. Once he starts allowing some homers with the guys on base he walked, the ERA is going to join the Whip as the do not want section of the pitcher's market. I'm a hard as possible sell on Chatwood right now and would deal him to anyone who is any kind of believer in the ERA and wins with the Cubs.

FAAB Feelings

Jeremy Hellickson: After a 2016 that saw Hellickson post a solid 12-win, 3.71 ERA campaign, he had a rough 2017, sporting a 5.43 ERA, as he gave up 35 homers (tied for the third most in baseball) and saw his strikeout rate dip to a career low 5.27 K/9. Since being inserted into the Nationals rotation in mid-April, Hellickson has been solid, compiling a 2.20 ERA through six starts and 32.2 innings. He hasn't gone deep in many games and has only completed six innings once, but he also hasn't allowed more than three runs in any outing and has only allowed one run total in his last three starts combined.

The strikeouts are never going to be big, but he is back over 7.00 strikeouts per nine, more in line with his career norms, and his swinging strike rate is also back to 10 percent, up from only 8.2 percent last year. Hellickson has also managed to avoid hard contact well so far this year at 27.8 percent, which was a calling card of his during the strong years in his career. The stat I like the most so far this season is how well he has induced ground balls, currently checking in at 48.3 percent, which would be the highest rate of his career and substantially up from 34.9 percent last year. The prime value for Hellickson as a free agent this weekend is his schedule. He's currently tabbed to make two starts next week, one at home against the Padres followed by a road start against the Marlins, easily the two worst OPS teams in all of baseball. Hellickson is owned in only 43 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues despite the strong start and I'll bid on him for sure where available with his current form plus the insanely good schedule on paper next week.

Jordan Lyles: Lyles made a big splash on Tuesday, taking a perfect game into the eighth inning against the Rockies before finally allowing a hit and a walk after retiring the first 22 batters. The Padres pitcher previously has spent time with the Astros and Rockies, and he hasn't had a lot of success and always possessed a middling strikeout rate. He has only pitched 32 innings this year and has only made two starts, but he's showing a lot of good stuff so far. His strikeout rate is sitting at 9.00 K/9, but the most interesting stat is that his velocity is currently at a career-high 94.1 mph. In addition, he has changed his pitch mix significantly, throwing less fastballs than ever at only 44.1 percent and he has increased use of his changeup and curve ball. The increased velocity and change in pitch has not only agreed with his strikeout rate, but his swinging strike rate is also easily the highest of his career at 11.3 percent.

Of course, he has only thrown 32 innings with these new stats, and there are many years of mediocre stats in his past, but I'm willing to place a small bid on him this week to see if the changes stick and his performance is for real, especially due the velocity uptick. As is the case in the current state of fantasy baseball, free agency is competitive, and you can't wait around a watch any more starts, as he'll be bid on this week after that gem on Tuesday. Further, if he can stick in the rotation, he also gets the benefit of half his starts in Petco Park. He does head on the road next week to face the Nationals, and depending on how the Padres set their rotation, he should have a second start in L.A. against the Dodgers. He's a risky guy but has shown enough early on for me to grab him and see if the gains stick.

A Closer Look

The Phillies closer situation landed in the news this weekend, as it was revealed that Hector Neris did not have the full time job anymore, and the Phillies could go with a committee. Edubray Ramos entered the ninth inning on Sunday with a two-run lead and delivered a save. Many fantasy players added him into their bids and he was picked up in a lot of leagues. And then it got even weirder. Ramos was called upon again in the ninth on Tuesday with a three-run lead, and after striking out Jonathan Schoop and Mark Trumbo, he was lifted with two outs and no one on for Hector Neris with a lefty (Chris Davis) coming up. Granted, Neris is better against lefties, but with a three run lead and no one out, it seemed crazy to not let Ramos finish the job rather than having Neris come in for one out.

Manager Gabe Kapler noted after the game that it was a big boost for Neris to get a huge out, but I could counter that by saying it feels more like Kapler didn't rest Neris enough to let him pitch the whole inning with a three run lead, and I also question how huge an out is with a three-run lead and no one on base. It's possible Kapler is just trolling us all, but he also has a little bit of a feel of a guy who wants everyone to see his moves and seem like he is pulling all the right strings, but in this case, it just felt like good ole over-managing. It's possible this situation is a headache all year, but generally teams end up moving to one guy at some point, and the Phillies are very good so far, so with the potential that it's not going to be Neris (who is already owned everywhere anyway), who might it be?

The first guy to look at is Ramos, as he has already been in the ninth inning mix in the last couple of games. Ramos was added in a lot of 15-team leagues after his save on Sunday, but is still only owned in 29 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. Ramos' issue, much like Neris, is the walk rate. Neris has already walked eight batters in 16.2 innings and this comes on the heels of a 4.37 BB/9 walk rate in 57.2 innings in 2017. The strikeouts have been great so far this year, as he has punched out 11.9 batters per nine, right in line with his 2017 rate. The swinging strike rate is a positive as it has jumped, moving to 11.9 percent after a 10.8 percent mark last year. He has a sparkling 1.08 ERA so far this inning, although that has been helped by a crazy 98.75 strand rate and a .238 BABIP.

The other concern so far this year on Ramos has been the increased fly ball rate, as he's allowing 46.9 percent, up more than 10 percent from last year, and that has bit him a bit as he has already allowed a couple of homers. Ramos is an intriguing arm due to the strikeouts and could be a really nice closer candidate, but he has to find a way to limit the walk rate first. I'm bidding him in leagues where I need saves but acknowledge there will be some hiccups and frustration with Kapler's decision making for a while. Ramos entered the game Thursday night with a four-run lead, but it looked like the ninth was going to be a save opportunity and then the Phillies scored two to extend the lead to four. He struggled and loaded the bases but managed to find a way out of it, so who knows how Kapler will view that outing.

The other arm worth watching in the Phillies pen, perhaps more for the second half of the season, is the 23-year-old Seranthony Dominguez. His 2017 issue was also walks, as he posted a walk rate of 4.33 BB/9 in 62.1 Single-A innings. After dominating through 13 innings in Double-A this season with a 2.08 ERA and large strikeout numbers (12.46 K/9) in 13 innings, he was promoted to Triple-A and then soon got the call up to the Phillies. He has only thrown 4.2 innings in the majors so far, but it has been solid with five strikeouts and most importantly, no walks or hits allowed. He's probably only an add now in very deep leagues but he's definitely someone to toss on your watch list to see if he can avoid the walks and continue to pitch well.

The other interesting closer note this week comes from Atlanta where manager Brian Snitker noted that a third reliever, Dan Winkler, could factor into the closer equation along with Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter. Vizcaino has received the lion's share of save opportunities to date, but both he and Minter are struggling with free passes. Vizcaino has only allowed multiple runs in one outing and has a 2.61 ERA, but the 4.35 BB.9 is a concern for a guy trying to close out games in the ninth. Minter has been even worse with the ground balls with a 6.00 BB/9 walk rate in his 18 innings. Oddly, Minter owned a gigantic 15.6 K/9 strikeout rate in 2017 but sits at only 8.00 K/9 so far in 2018, but he does still possess an elite swinging strike rate of 15 percent.

As those two guys have shown some struggles with walks, Winkler has been the best reliever in the pen so far with a 0.98 ERA and a crazy 0.65 Whip. He also has an excellent K:BB ratio, currently sitting at 27:5. Winkler was a starter in the Rockies organization early in his career and underwent two elbow surgeries that caused him to miss almost all of 2015 and 2016 and a good chunk of 2017 as well. I think Vizcaino still has a bit of a leash, but if the walks linger, it will get short quickly, and while Minter may come around, Winkler is probably worth a look in deeper leagues, as even if he doesn't register any saves soon, the ratios in themselves could prove helpful.

Series of the Weekend

Phillies at Cardinals. With all the early National League buzz with the young, fun Braves and the early Diamondbacks success, the Phillies are quietly nine games over .500 and only a half-game behind the Braves in the NL East. This weekend, they head to Busch for a four-game set against the Cardinals, another squad right in the mix in their division; only two games behind the division-leading Brewers. The Phillies are sending their two aces, Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta (both with ERAs under 2.60 so far in 2018) to the mound this weekend, while the Cardinals will counter with the hot Michael Wacha (one earned run allowed in four of his last five starts) and the interesting rookie Jack Flaherty.

The Phillies are currently led by the gigantic start to the season of Odubel Herrera. Herrera has finally started to receive some attention this week, as his consecutive games reaching base streak reached 43 on Thursday night. After a huge 2016 in whichHerrera hit 15 homers and stole 25 bases with a .286 average, he was a draft disappointment in 2017 with 14 homers and only eight stolen bases. With another multihit game on Thursday night, Herrera now sits at a .363 average, which leads the National League by 30 points. He has cut his strikeouts by nearly eight percent to 14.5 percent while upping his walks to 10.2 percent. His hard hit rate has dropped a bit to 26.7 percent, but his line drive rate has increased to 24.2 percent. The stolen bases haven't surfaced yet, with only two swipes on the year, but with six homers already, he's looking extremely likely to fly by his career high of 15 homers.

On the Cardinals side of things, they have managed to hang in there due to a 3.42 team ERA that puts them in the top five in baseball and has helped make up for their struggling offense, which sits in the bottom five in OPS and the bottom 10 in runs scored. The two most obvious items to point to as a reason for the Cardinals struggle on offense are the brutal seasons being posted by two guys that figured to be stalwarts in the top half of the lineup, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter. Amazingly, we have just passed the first quarter of the season, and both guys currently are not only residing under the Mendoza line, but they are both hitting under .165! Fowler is hitting the ball less hard this year (down to 32.4 percent), but his strikeout and walk rates are about the same as 2017, but his BABIP has crashed to .165 after a 2018 mark of .305.

Carpenter's stat line is really interesting as well, as he's still walking a ton and his 15.9 percent walk rate has him tied for 10th best in baseball, but his strikeouts are way up. Carpenter has sat right at about a 20 percent strikeout rate over the past three seasons, but through 36 games this year, he's currently at 27.7 percent. His hard hit rate, his calling card at more than 40 percent the last two seasons, is still excellent at exactly 40 percent, and he's hitting a ton of line drives at 26.5 percent, which makes his .208 BABIP really hard to believe. Two weeks ago, I liked both of these guys as buy lows, but at this point, my concern on both of them is that they have started to lose some playing time as their struggles have lingered, especially when the Cardinals face a lefty. The good thing is that as they have continued to hit poorly, their fantasy owners are likely nearly over them, and they're both players you can truly buy low. I traded for Carpenter in one league last week, and I'd definitely toss a couple of offers for each guy as they should be available at a pretty sizeable discount from draft day.