MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

I had a lot of great teachers in high school.

I didn't know it at that time, of course, but looking back, I wish I had made a point to thank them upon graduating instead of walking out of school the morning after graduation eager to forget most of the people I had seen over those four years.

When I was 15, I thought my World History teacher, Mr. Kaczmarek, was a complete hard-ass.

Looking back on it now, he was a damn good teacher.

In addition to teaching world history, "Kaz" was the golf coach at my high school, a school that lacked recent hardware in the trophy case. Most of the contents of that case were from an era when the city had only one public high school, and by the time I set foot at Waukesha South High School, the city had three. One of the most more recent state championship trophies was from the Boys' Golf team in 1989.

One day during my sophomore year, I took the liberty of putting my head down on my desk for a quick nap while Kaz was showing our class the film 'Tora! Tora! Tora!'. Being a know-it-all, I thought I had World War II all figured out, so dozing off for 30 minutes would be just fine.

A few minutes after closing my eyes, my desk rattled in the wake of a loud thud.

I looked up to see Kaz staring at me, with the most disapproving look I've ever seen.

If he said anything, I don't even remember the words, but he didn't have to. That was the last time I'd ever do anything less than pay full attention in his class.

I received word that Kaz passed away recently -- one day after playing a round of golf on his 75th birthday.

Rest In peace, Kaz.

And thank you for teaching me as much about life as you did about world history.

Risers

Brandon Belt, 1B, SF -- Belt is currently on pace for his first 30-homer season in the big leagues, along with excellent counting stats (90+ RBI and 90+ runs) as the most valuable piece of the Giants' offense. Lost in the wake of his fourth career concussion in 2017, Belt was among the players pushing toward a career-high home-run total a year ago, and the legitimate concern about his health, paired with having to play half of his games in the league's worst park for left-handed homers left him as something of an afterthought in most drafts this spring. Entering play Monday, Belt ranked fifth in MLB in Barrel Rate (Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Teoscar Hernandez and Joey Gallo are the hitters ahead of him; min 100 batted-ball events), despite ranking 109th among qualified hitters in the percentage of batted balls hit at 95+ mph. The home park and supporting cast will be limiting factors with regard to Belt's ceiling, but he has the potential to be a big difference-maker for those who drafted him on the cheap, as he's currently the second ranked first baseman in terms of dollars earned ($29) to this point.

Whit Merrifield, 2B, KC -- Maybe my skepticism about Merrifield power from last season's breakout will prove to be warranted (he's sitting with four homers in 52 games), but I overestimated the downturn in quality of the lineup around him, and did not expect Merrifield to double his walk rate (9.8%) from last season. With an increased OBP, Merrifield gets more chances to run, and he's in a near-optimal situation with manager Ned Yost willing to give him a lot of green lights. Even if the run production totals lag somewhat, Merrifield looks like a safe 10-12 homer, 30-35 steal player with a very good batting average -- easily a top-10 second baseman, and one of the players I misjudged the most this draft season.

Alex Reyes, SP, STL -- I was skeptical about targeting Reyes in redraft leagues this spring for a few reasons. First, I was concerned about the possibility of a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, nothing out of the ordinary, but just more of a kid gloves approach in the final stages of his rehab given his long-term importance to the organization. Second, the possibility that the Cards might limit his innings in a non-closer relief role throughout the first half of the season before a potential shift to the rotation in the second half. Finally, I was concerned that a pitcher whose career walk rate in the minors has been right around 4.5 BB/9 might struggle with command, and subsequently control, upon returning to game action. He cruised through a rehab assignment with a 34:7 K:BB over 23 innings, and will be without restrictions within each start when he joins the Cards' rotation Wednesday against the Brewers for his season debut. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Reyes made significant changes to his diet and workout routines while rehabbing, working in conjunction with the Cardinals' new department of performance during his 15-month absence from game action. Those changes might hasten Reyes' evolution from 'thrower' to 'pitcher' and the results could be extremely valuable for those who stashed him away.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR -- Vladito continues to break Double-A in a way that I've never really seen before. After another multi-hit effort Monday, his slash line sits at .433/.481/.713 with 10 homers, 50 RBI and an 18:20 BB:K (five intentional walks) through 46 games. The Jays might be playing the Super Two game, waiting until the middle of June before calling him up in hopes of reducing the chances that he'll be arbitration-eligible for four years instead of three. It's strange that they haven't give him in the nudge to Triple-A Buffalo, even if it's only going to be a 15-20 game stay, as he clearly has nothing left to prove in the Eastern League. In Yahoo! Leagues, Guerrero is 44 percent owned as of Monday evening (he's 36.5 percent owned in ESPN leagues) Even in very shallow mixed leagues, Guerrero's bat should play just fine as soon as the Jays deem Kendrys Morales a sunk cost or once an injury prompts them to give him the call.

Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, NYY -- We're spoiled again. The current crop of big-league rookies is loaded, and while I didn't expect Torres to be this good, this quickly, he started his ascent in the Yankees' batting order with a move to the No. 5 spot Monday afternoon (Didi Gregorius was the big faller, and it was a day off for Giancarlo Stanton). Nevertheless, the .317/.379/.606 line from Torres through 31 games has included nine homers as well, and he's quickly making his case to be considered a clear-cut top-10 player at second base, having already racked up $15 -- ranking him 12th among players at second base despite playing 15-20 fewer games than the players who have earned more to this point. Brett Gardner is hitting .240/.352/.331 and holding the leadoff spot every day, but it may not be long before Torres usurps him in that role.

Max Muncy, 1B/3B/OF, LAD -- The Dodgers have been moving pieces around since losing Corey Seager to season-ending elbow surgery, with Chris Taylor taking over as the primary shortstop, and Cody Bellinger getting time in center field during the second half of May. Within that series of adjustments, Muncy has started for the Dodgers every time they have faced a right-handed starter since April 30. He's moved up in the order recently, hitting first or second in six of the Dodgers' last nine games entering play Tuesday, while hitting .241/.354/.518 with six homers and 17 RBI through 32 contests this season. Older scouting reports on Muncy when he was an A's prospect focused on his plate discipline ahead of his power, which pretty much disappeared after a 21-homer binge in 93 games in the hitter-friendly California League as a 22-year-old in 2013. In the years since, he's maintained the good eye that initially put him on the map as a prospect, but with an increase in flyballs at Triple-A (48.1%) and with the Dodgers (46.6%) to begin 2018, he might be a versatile late bloomer finally tapping into his potential. If he continues to make hard contact as frequently as he has thus far (48.3% of his batted balls have been hit at 95+ mph, ranking him 31st out of 327 hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events), an additional 15-18 homers might be on the horizon, and the recent lineup promotion will provide a nice boost to his counting stats if the arrangement holds.

Fallers

Didi Gregorius, SS, NYY -- Mired in a 4-for-70 slump, Gregorious was dropped to seventh in the order for Monday's series opener against the Astros. At the end of April, he was worth $50 according to the RotoWire in-season earn values. With four days remaining in May, Gregorius has been worth $24 -- ranking him ninth among shortstops in 2018. For the season, he's hitting .230/.312/.489 with 11 homers, 33 runs, 34 RBI and three steals -- if he had simply split that production evenly over the first two months, he'd be a very productive player in a loaded lineup, and he'd probably still be somewhat undervalued or under the radar. The concern going forward is the return of Greg Bird, which offers up an alternative source of left-handed power to place in the heart of the order for manager Aaron Boone.

Eduardo Nunez, 2B, BOS -- Dustin Pedroia returned from the disabled list Friday, bumping Nunez into a utility role for the Red Sox. Even if Pedroia were still sidelined, Nunez's hold on everyday playing time might have been loosening anyway thanks to a 243/.260/.357 line through 54 games (-0.5 WAR). In addition to giving Pedroia the occasional day off, Nunez figures to take some starts at third base from Rafael Devers against tough lefties, though the Red Sox have generally been content to let Devers face southpaws to this point. Nunez turns 31 in June, and not surprisingly, his speed continues to dwindle with age, but the lack of stolen-base attempts (he's 2-for-3 this season) might be a sign that his knee issues from 2017 aren't completely gone.

Alex Colome, RP, SEA -- The Mariners acquired Colome (along with Denard Span) from the Rays on Friday, adding another useful arm to their late-inning bridge to closer Edwin Diaz. The high likelihood of a trade was one deterrent for me with Colome during draft season, but the skills decline from 2016 to 2017 included a drop in strikeout rate (from 31.4% to 20.6%) and an elevated walk rate (from 6.6% to 8.2%). Unless Diaz ends up on the disabled list, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which Colome records more than the occasional save on a day in which Diaz is unavailable to pitch. Even in AL-only leagues, Colome can be dropped as he doesn't have the top-end skills necessary to be an above-average staff filler.

Tyler Chatwood, SP, CHC -- I thought Chatwood was going to be good for the Cubs. I saw what I wanted to see -- good movement on his pitches, favorable road splits during his time in Colorado, and a stretch of sub 4.0 BB/9 marks from 2013-2016 -- and wrongly compared the situation to the Astros' free-agent pursuit of Charlie Morton in the previous offseason, wherein a "smart" front office went against the grain and chose a second-tier free agent they preferred to the more expensive alternatives. Through 10 starts with the Cubs, Chatwood has walked more batters (45) than he's struck out (44). With Yu Darvish (triceps) currently on the disabled list, Chatwood is getting an opportunity to stay in the rotation for now, but he may be on the brink of a temporary demotion if Mike Montgomery outperforms him as Darvish's temporary replacement.

Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX -- Calhoun was supposed to be in the Rangers' lineup by now, but he's hitting .270/.322/.393 with four homers and 17 RBI in 51 games at Triple-A Round Rock. He was removed from a game over the weekend after failing to run out a soft grounder, but he was back in the lineup the following day. The recent success of Ronald Guzman, the upcoming return of Adrian Beltre, and the current healthy of Joey Gallo means that Calhoun needs to force the issue with his bat if the Rangers don't suffer an injury in the left field/DH mix. Most mixed leagues owners have probably cut bait by now, and rightfully so, but those who missed out in keeper formats may want to float an offer to the current Calhoun owner, who might be willing to part ways at a slight discount for a prospect still sitting inside the top-50 on most lists.

Michael Taylor, OF, WAS -- If Juan Soto hits enough to stay with the Nationals for the rest of the season, the eventual return of Adam Eaton could push Taylor into a fourth outfielder role. During his time in the big leagues, Eaton has been used mostly as a center fielder, and while it's fair to question whether he's the same player defensively that he was before suffering a torn ACL last season, it may be the only way for the Nats' outfield to optimize productivity at the plate. Taylor has been an excellent source of steals through the first two months with 11 through 52 games despite a .199/.264/.354 line. Eaton is expected to be sidelined until late June, which gives the situation a month to play out, but Taylor's opportunities to play for the Nats in the second half of the season could be significantly limited, even if Victor Robles is unable to return to the mix before September.

Note: I'm on the road this week, and it may take slightly longer than usual for me to reply to questions.