Oak's Corner: Bryce's BA Woes

The Week That Was

Eduardo Escobar broke out in 2017 with 21 homers and 73 RBI in 129 games, easily both career highs. Despite the 21 homers, Escobar had little to no buzz entering this draft season, as his playing time looked like a big issue with no set position, at least to start the season. Only with the March 18 announcement that Jorge Polanco would be suspended for 80 games and Escobar could play shortstop every day did his draft stock begin to rise a little bit. With 3B eligibility already established, he moved up a lot of drafts sheets with the thought that he would soon have shortstop eligibility, which would make him an interesting piece as someone who could cover both corner and middle infield for teams. His ADP in 25 Main Event drafts after the Polanco suspension was announced was still only 404.44, and he has absolutely crushed his draft price.

Escobar has already hit 11 homers to go with 36 RBI in his first 55 games as he looks to fly by the career highs he established last season. His strikeout rate has bumped up a little bit to 22.6 percent but is still in a manageable range, especially when you consider the big ISO jump from .195 in 2017 to .268 this year. He's also far above last year's batted ball numbers, as he currently sports a 40.1 percent hard hit rate after a career-high 31.4 percent last season. He's also hitting more fly balls at 48.1 percent, topping his 2017 rate, which was already a big bump up from his career norms. Perhaps most importantly, he has established himself in the middle of the Twins order and has hit in a prime lineup daily since the start of May. Polanco is set to return in early June, but there is now very little doubt that Escobar has earned a full-time role, and while he may move around a little bit, he's going to play every day and I'm holding on to him wherever I own him. For me, he has gone from a matchup play early in the year to someone I automatically slot in at one of his many eligible positions each and every week.

Oh, Bryce Harper. We have a tough past, as I have owned him in the NFBC Main Event during the down or injured years and have missed the good years, including the MVP season. I was happy to grab him at the 13 spot this season in my Main Event, but the results have certainly been a mixed bag so far. I'm not sure I have seen any elite player have the violent batting average swings of Harper in his last four years of batting: .330, .243, .319 and now .229. It's wild that he doesn't have anything mixed in the middle there, as all four seasons are either elite or bad.

Now, Harper has been far from poor in fantasy and real baseball as he has 18 homers to go with 40 RBI and five stolen bases and he also leads all of baseball with a 18.2 percent walk rate. He's hitting the ball harder than ever at a 44.9 percent hard hit rate, but even that hasn't helped him avoid an insanely low .217 BABIP. With how hard he's hitting the ball, some of that is going to turn around, but he's also being hurt by the shift. He's pulling the ball at a career-high 46.2 percent rate, and with nearly 40 percent of his balls in play on the ground, that's a lot of balls into the teeth of the defense, even if they are smoked. A recent June 5 article on BaseballInfoSolutions.com noted that as of that date, Harper was only four for 34 when hitting a grounder or line drive in situations where a full shift was employed, a batting average of only .118. Harper is too good not to figure this out, but he's pulling 10 percent more balls than last year, and while that may be helping the power when he does get one, it's killing his batting average. I still think Harper ends up fine for his draft price, but the two months of .229 is still very real and hurts from your first-round pick. I'm a full hold on Harper and am just hoping that this isn't another chapter in the "I Can't Time Bryce Harper" novel I started this offseason.

Jon Gray was a very tough guy for me to rank this March as I was prepping for drafts. The stuff and upside are obviously there, but his home park (I do know he was better at home in 2017) just brings a difficult item into the mix at his draft price. Gray ended up with an ADP in NFBC Main Events of 154, which puts him around the round 10/11 turn. At that point, he's likely your third or fourth starting pitcher and in any kind of deep league, it's frustrating to think that in many weeks, you might consider benching that guy because he has one home start that week. Well, Gray has been a huge disappointment so far with a massive 5.66 ERA to go with a 1.51 Whip through his first 13 starts. He has been pounded at home this time around with a 6.45 ERA in 37.2 Coors innings.

I didn't want to pay his price in drafts, but I'm a full buy low on him now, even with the Coors factor always lingering, I think he's someone you can actually get for a pretty decent discount off his draft day price, as his owners have to be frustrated with his first two months. Among all qualified starters, Gray has not only the third lowest strand rate at 64.2 percent, but also the highest BABIP by nearly 30 points at .379. Now some of that is pitching poorly and some of that is Coors, but with his pure stuff, both of those numbers are going to correct, and he's going to go on a run, hell, his FIP is incredibly 3.13 at the moment. His velocity is still strong at 95.3 mph, and his swinging strike rate is actually up this year to 12.7 percent, which has fueled his career high 10.41 K/9 strikeout rate. His walks are a bit higher but still fine at under 3.00 BB/9, and aside from an elevated hard hit rate of 35.3 percent, he really looks like the same pitcher he was coming into the season and maybe even a touch better with the increased strikeouts. Coors does get tougher in the summer as the temperatures rise, but I absolutely love his chances to go on a nice run for fantasy teams and I'd love to acquire him now and am going to try and do so this weekend.

FAAB Feelings

Clay Buchholz – My good friend and great NFBC player Vlad Sedler often says that you can't hold grudges in fantasy baseball, and while I try my best not to, there are times when I have been burned by a player too many times to go back for more even when it looks pretty good. That is the case for Clay Buchholz and me, as I feel like I have managed to time much of his inconsistency in the past very poorly. Buchholz has jumped into the Diamondbacks rotation with both feet and has been very effective over his first four starts. He has allowed only five total runs through his first four starts spanning 24 innings and has even shown a strikeout pitch in the last two games. After only five punch outs in the first two starts, he has struck out nine and seven batters in the last two outings while only walking two.

His velocity on his fastball has only averaged 90.3 mph so far, which is a concern as he sat around 92 mph in his prime Red Sox years. On the plus side, he's getting swings and misses as his swinging strike rate is more than 10 percent for only the third time in his career. If this was a young guy with these four starts, I'd likely be all over him, but at 33 and with decreased velocity, and the fact he's Clay Buchholz, I'm a bit more cautious than I'd normally be. I think he has shown enough where I would definitely take a stab in a deeper league, but he was likely added in many of those last week as shown by his 88 percent ownership in NFBC Main Event leagues. However, he's only owned in 17 percent of the 12-team leagues, but that will go up this week with a scheduled two-start week both games at home, facing Pittsburgh and the Mets. Much has been made of the depressed offense this season at Chase Field, and with two starts and those matchups, I'll bid in 12s, but not super aggressively due to the past scars.

Jake Bauers – The Rays have called up Bauers, their fifth best prospect according to James Anderson's rankings on RotoWire, and he made his debut at first base on Thursday night, hitting sixth in the lineup. The Rays solved the potential playing time log jam by designating veteran Brad Miller for assignment, so we should see Bauers play nearly every day, at least initially. Bauers is an interesting player considering the position, as he has been more of a speed/power combo guy in the minors than a pure power guy that we usually see from a first baseman. In 2017, in 132 Triple-A games, Bauer went deep only 13 times, but he also tossed in 20 stolen bases to go with his .263 average. So far this year, he has continued that trend with only five homers in 52 games but 10 stolen bases. He walks a solid amount (13.6 percent last year), and while his strikeout rate this year so far is a career-high at 21.2 percent, he has been under 20 percent at every step in his career, a good combo for a guy who is only 22.

At his young age, it's possible he's growing into more power, and we have seen a number of players develop their power in the majors in the last few years. It's always possible the MLB ball will aide that process. First base has been a very tough position so far this year and I have found myself needed a 1B or a corner infielder in many leagues, and with Bauers' hit tool to go with some steals and hopefully growing into his power, I will be fairly aggressive about bidding on him over the weekend.

A Closer Look

I won't bother with too much on Kyle Barraclough, as he was likely picked up in your league last weekend after being named the new closer for the Marlins last weekend. If he somehow snuck through last week, he's obviously a must add with the job, but I would be very concerned about his walks. He has been great so far this year with a 1.37 ERA, but his BABIP is absurd at .117, and his strand rate is also very high at 90.5 percent. He's walking 5.13 batters per nine, right in line with his 2017 rate, and while his strikeouts at over 9.00 per nine and was 10.36 K/9 last year, he isn't a top end strikeout reliever where maybe one could overlook the walks. If you need saves, you have to bid, but I'm not optimistic on him thriving in the role with his walk issues, a trait I truly hate to see with closers.

The White Sox closer situation is a mess right now, as Nate Jones had a few recent hiccups, allowing nine runs total in his last 12 outings to balloon his ERA over 4.00 on the season. After a 2016 where he only walked 1.91 batters per nine, Jones' walk rate is at 4.70 BB/9 so far this year, and while he's still striking out more than 10 batters per nine, the walks are just too high right now to trust him as a closer. Joakim Soria got the most recent save for the Sox, and while it's hard to buy in on the 34-year-old vet, he has actually been pretty strong this season with a 10.72 K/9 strikeout rate combined with a 1.59 BB/9 walk rate. His ERA is 3.57, but he has pitched better than that as a .338 BABIP has hurt him and his FIP is actually 2.54. While his hard hit rate is the highest of his career at 29.9 percent, it's still pretty solid under 30 percent. The situation is a mess, but if someone in your league dropped Soria after he lost his grip on the closer role, I think I would add him now and hope he slides back into the role for a bit, as maybe the White Sox showcase him in the role for a trade to a contender in July.

Series of the Weekend

Giants at Nationals. The Giants have suffered injuries to their top three starters but have managed to get themselves to .500 through 62 games, which puts them right in the mix in the competitive, but so far mediocre, NL West. This weekend they travel to Washington for a big test against the Nationals, who, after winning seven of their last 10, seem to be hitting their stride, as they sit atop the NL East, tied with the upstart Braves. To add to the Giants test this weekend, the Nats will be sending Steven Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer to the mound in the three game series.

We all know how great Max and Stras are, but Gonzalez is very quietly putting up a second straight excellent season for the Nationals. Gonzalez posted a 2.96 ERA in 2017, but his secondary stats didn't support that level of elite pitching, and he definitely wasn't drafted as a guy who had under a 3.00 ERA, but it has been more of the same for Gio so far in 2018. Through his first eight starts, he has a 2.27 ERA, while pushing his strikeout rate back over 9.00 K/9 for the first time since 2014. His swinging strike rate also has jumped to 10 percent for the first time since 2014, so there is some backing the strikeout jump early having some merit. The real key so far in Gio's season has been the avoidance of home runs, as he had giving up nearly 1.00 HR/9 over the past two seasons, and he's currently at 0.50 HR/9, allowing only four homers so far in 71.1 innings.

Despite a -31 run differential and their aforementioned pitching staff injuries, the Giants have grinded their way to 31-31 and find themselves only 1.5 games out of first place. Brandon Belt carried them for a while on offense, but he's now on the DL, and a different Brandon is their best hitter at the moment. After a brutal start to the season where he hit .189 through the first month of the season that saw him get dropped in many fantasy leagues, Brandon Crawford has been on fire, hitting .423 in 33 games since May 1 with five homers and 24 RBI. Crawford currently is sporting career-highs in line drive rate at 28.9 percent and hard hit rate at 38.1 percent.

I noted above that Gray is the pitcher I'd love to buy low, and on the hitting side, the player that fits that mold for me is Andrew McCutchen. In his first season in black and orange, Cutch is only hitting .253 with five homers as he tries to get used to his first professional season outside of Pittsburgh. Hidden in the poor start is a massive hard hit rate of 47.9 percent, which puts him in the top 10 in all of baseball. His FB rate of 40.5 percent is actually higher than last year when he hit 28 homers, but his HR/FB has killed him at only 7.6 percent. His HR/FB rate was 16.4 percent last year and hasn't been under 10 percent since 2010. I realize he plays in a brutal home park, but with his fly ball rate and how hard he's hitting the ball, he's big trade target for me right now, and I think a flurry of stats is coming very soon.

I wish Madison Bumgarner was pitching this weekend, but with Scherzer and Strasburg pitching, this should be a very fun series and a good test to see where the Giants really stand.