Oak's Corner: This Aguilar’s On Fire

The Week That Was

On Thursday I discussed on Twitter how hard it has been to find power in the free agent pool this year after a 2017 season that saw five of the top 10 hitters drafted after pick 340: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Logan Morrison, Joey Gallo and Justin Smoak. While that tough-to-find power narrative is very much in play, and 10 of the top 15 home run hitters so far this year were drafted in the top 23 overall, Jesus Aguilar has certainly been one of the outliers in that story. Aguilar mashed his 19th homer on Thursday night against the Reds and now has a .313 average to go with his power numbers. The 19 homers are particularly impressive when you consider that he exited April with only one homer on his stat line.

Aguilar had significant playing time issues entering the season, which contributed to his 478 ADP in NFBC drafts, and he was actually only drafted in one of the 34 Main Event drafts. With the acquisitions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich in the offseason, Aguilar's looked to be on the short side of a platoon at best, with Eric Thames, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana ahead of him on the depth chart. Of course, Thames got hurt, Santana was bad and eventually demoted, and Braun has his usual tweaks, and here we are with Aguilar. Aguilar showed some pop in 2017 with 16 homers in 311 plate appearances, but he has passed that number already in only 241 plate appearances this season.

Aguilar had significant strikeout issues late year with a strikeout rate of more than 30 percent, but he has dropped that number to just under 25 percent this season. His hard hit rate was exceptional last year at 45.2 percent, and he has nudged that up a bit to 46.4 percent, but the real key to his power surge is a big boost in fly balls from 37.8 percent to 46.4 percent. If he can maintain the fly balls, the homers are going to keep coming with his hard hit rate, and if he can also keep the K rate where it is now, the average should be solid, too. Clearly, you can't trade for Aguilar right now, but if I own him, I'm holding him and enjoying the ride in a very good hitter's park and not looking to sell him high without a Godfather offer sent my way.

We talked last week about some draft darling pitchers who have struggled, but one pitcher who was popular in drafts and has delivered on the hype is lefty Blake Snell. Through his first 17 starts, Snell has a sparkling 2.31 ERA while striking out a career-high 10.04 batters per nine. The issue that plagued Snell during his first two trips through the big leagues was his walk rate, and while it's not great yet, he has lowered it to a manageable 3.55 BB/9. While Snell has been great and I love watching him shove, he has received some good fortune with a .228 BABIP to go with an 86.1 strand rate, which explains his 3.49 FIP.

Snell's hard hit rate is also a bit elevated from his prior two seasons at 34.3 percent, and while it's not high enough to be concerning, it's not anything that makes you excited. On the plus side, Snell has significantly ramped up his swinging swing rate to a career-high 13.5 percent, which supports the career-high strikeout rate. He has been particularly on fire lately, allowing one run or fewer in six of his last starts with zero runs in four of those outings. I do really like Snell, but I think he's a nice guy to shop if someone in your league is a believer in the current ERA breakout and looking to overpay, which I think is very possible with how many people love Snell right now. It would take the right deal, but I'd love to cash in on his first half as I think a few hiccups are on their way in the second half.

On the flip side to Snell's fantastic first half, we have 2017 darling Luis Castillo and his horrendous 5.85 ERA through his first 17 starts. Castillo was a revelation for the Reds last season after his call up, posting a 3.12 ERA in 89.1 major league innings. He had some good BABIP fortune last season, but nothing that would come close to predicting the absolute worst ERA in all of baseball among the 86 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 80 innings. Castillo's strikeout rate has dipped to 8.73 K/9, but the number that really sticks out is how often batters are squaring up Castillo compared to last year. After pitching to a hard hit rate of under 30 percent in 2017, he is giving up 38.5 percent hard contact, and his line drive allowed rate has jumped from 12.2 percent to 20.9 percent. Further, his elite 58.8 percent ground ball rate from last season has dropped to 45 percent.

Perhaps the most concerning number in Castillo's profile is the velocity drop. He's dropped more than two miles per hour on his fastball from last season; it's down to 95.3 mph. That velocity drop becomes more concerning when a closer look at his fastball shows a -15.1 pitch value on Fangraphs after it was about a neutral pitch for his last season. Hitters are pounding his slower fastball and bumping all his batted ball stats the wrong direction. His BABIP isn't especially high at .299, and while his strand rate is due for some correction at 65.5 percent, it certainly doesn't account for a 5.85 ERA. Castillo is clearly talented, but the velocity drop and ugly numbers on the fastball, which he throws more than 60 percent of the time keep from jumping on him as a buy low. If he were to be dropped in my league, as we have seen that happening over the last couple of weeks in some shallow leagues, I'd definitely add him and maybe look for some progress while he sat on my bench, but I'm not looking to actively trade for him.

FAAB Feelings

Zack Wheeler – Wheeler was the sixth overall pick by the Giants in 2009 and was used by Giants GM Brian Sabean to obtain Carlos Beltran for the Giants' stretch run in 2011 and instantly became one the better prospects for the Mets. He made it to the big leagues in 2013 and threw an excellent 185.1 innings with a 3.54 ERA for the Mets in 2014, staking his claim as one of the more intriguing young arms in baseball. Wheeler missed all of 2015 and almost all of 2016 after Tommy John surgery and only managed 86.1 innings in Triple-A in 2017. Coming into 2018, most drafters were wary of trusting Wheeler to stay healthy, but he has now made 15 starts and has really turned it on as of late.

After a bumpy May that featured starts where he allowed six and eight earned runs, Wheeler has had a strong June, posting a 3.26 ERA even with a six earned run outing at Atlanta mixed in there. Wheeler's arm finally looks healthy, with a 95.4 average velocity on his fastball that is the highest of his career leading to a 10.8 percent swinging strike rate, also a career-high. Wheeler's ERA is a touch high at 4.47, but a 69.2 percent strand rate has hurt that a bit, which has also kept his ownership down.He's currently still only at only 53 percent in NFBC 12-team leagues. Wheeler has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, and he has racked up at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts.

The Mets play only five games this week, but with injuries in their rotation, it's possible that they skip their fifth starter this week and that would give Wheeler two starts this week, one at the Jays and a second home against the Rays. The start in Toronto is a bit of a concern, as the Jays are much better at home (.760 OPS at home and a .701 OPS on the road), but the home start against the Rays is nice on paper, as the Rays are a bottom-10 scoring offense so far this year. Wheeler is likely to have hiccups and consistency will be an issue, but I like what I see when watching his starts, especially recently, and this is likely the last chance to jump on a pitcher with upside, something that has been tough to find in free agency so far this season.

Nick Kingham – Kingham was a popular add in free agency, earning a lot of big bids upon his first call up, but he was dropped in many leagues as he headed back to the minors once the Pirates rotation got healthy. Since Chad Kuhl left Tuesday's start against the Mets, it's widely assumed that Kingham will get the call to replace him Monday in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers, and then he could get a second start home vs. the Phillies. Kingham has made six starts for the Pirates so far in 2018 and has impressed in those starts, allowing more than three earned runs only once, while compiling a 3.82 ERA.

Kingham has shown excellent command of the strike zone, only walking seven batters in 35.1 innings, while striking out 35. In his three minor league starts since his most recent demotion, Kingham has been excellent, allowing only five runs total in three starts with 21 strikeouts in 19.2 innings. He isn't readily available in deeper leagues (85 percent owned in NFBC 15 teamers), but was dropped in many NFBC 12-teamers and is currently available in 71 percent of those leagues. There's no definitive word on Kuhl's status yet, but forearm discomfort is rarely good, and there are indications he will be placed on the DL Friday. Kingham is someone who could stick in the rotation long-term and be a strong asset for fantasy teams needing to solidify their rotation.

Jesse Winker – After recent news that Winker would be the Reds fourth outfielder, he was dropped in a lot of leagues and is currently only owned in 25 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. Playing time could still be an issue, but at only 24, Winker is such a good hitter that the full-time at-bats have to be in his near future as the Reds will spend the second half of the season looking to 2019. Through 262 plate appearances this year, Winker has exhibited an elite contact rate, striking out only 14.1 percent of the time while bumping his walk rate up to 14.9 percent.

The knock on Winker coming into this season was that he wouldn't hit enough homers to contribute in fantasy leagues, but the power bat looks to be coming around a little bit as he mashed his sixth homer on Thursday night and now has hit five of his six homers in June. His hard hit rate was a solid 35.7 percent in his 47 games as a rookie in 2017 and he has ramped that up to 41.3 percent this season and has also increased his fly ball rate to 34.4 percent. His HR/FB rate is only 8.1 percent so far this year but that has begun to correct already in June. I really like Winker's approach at the plate and love the fact that he gets half his games in Cincy. I'm looking to add Winker with the thought that the playing time is close to working itself out (Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall are both hitting under .220. Winker has a better OPS than either of them) and I'm going to fall into a really solid full-time bat very soon.

Gorkys Hernandez – Amid all the NL West hype about the insane breakout season of Max Muncy (thanks for showing none of that in Oakland Max!), the breakout of Gorkys Hernandez has been a bit overlooked. Hernandez has been a completely different hitter and has now hit 10 homers in 70 games after not homering once in 128 games in 2017. He has clearly changed his approach at the plate, striking out in 28 percent of his plate appearances after only 21 percent of them in 2017. However, with the increased strikeouts has been an a significant increased in his hard hit rate, moving from a 25.3 percent rate in 2017 to his current 38.5 percent. His .359 BABIP has helped boost his average to .284 after he hit only .255 last year, and the increased strikeouts do put that average at risk.

I grabbed Hernandez in a 15-team last week just to see if the hot streak would continue, but 12-team owners still are not buying in as he is only owned at a 26 percent rate there. Sometimes you just don't know on breakout seasons, and while I am a bit pessimistic on this, I would gamble on him in 12-teamers if you have an easy drop or need some outfield depth. He and Winker are owned at about the same rate, and I'll have Winker above Gorkys on my bid lists this weekend.

A Closer Look

The Detroit Tigers have now lost nine games in a row, and their once interesting prospects of hanging around .500 have fallen by the wayside. Much like the Royals, the Tigers could and should be looking to sell their closer, Shane Greene, to a team in contention that could use him. Greene has 19 saves, and while his ERA is a bit high at 4.14, he currently sports a 10.22 K/9 strikeouts rate while only walking 2.68 batters per nine. His homers have been an issue, but one would think a contender could use him as a setup guy, and the Tigers would be smart to try and get a prospect for him.

Unlike the Royals, the Tigers do have an interesting setup guy who would likely move right into the closer role if Greene is dealt. Joe Jimenez has been excellent for most of the season, sporting a 2.58 ERA in 38.1 innings so far in 2018. In those 38.1 innings, he has shown a nice K/BB ratio with 43 strikeouts against only nine walks. The 23-year-old has shown excellent strikeout numbers across the minors, and his swinging strikeout rate of 13.8 percent supports those strikeouts. He throws hard (95.5 mph) and the Tigers would likely like to see him in the closer's role for a couple of months if they can find a deal for Greene to see if Jimenez is their guy to start 2018. Jimenez has already started to get snapped up in deeper leagues as he is currently owned in 82 percent of NFBC 15-team Main Event Leagues, but is still under 50 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues. The window to grab him is closing, and I recommend doing so now and then hope the recent losing streak pushes the Tigers to trade Greene sooner rather than later.

In discussing the Royals closer situation last week, I discussed a few names, but left out Wily Peralta. That is looking like an error, as Peralta earned two saves for the Royals so far this week, throwing a scoreless inning on each occasion. Peralta was recently called up by the Royals after 35 innings of a 4.37 ERA in Triple-A and he has been good so far in KC, allowing only one run through his first five appearances. Peralta, a converted starter, has shown strong strikeout numbers so far in 2018 both in the minors and in his short stint in MLB, but the walks are a major issue, just as they were in 2017. He has already walked four batters in 4.2 MLB innings after walking 5.40 batters per nine in 45 Triple-A innings, a year after walking more than five batters per nine last season in 57.1 innings. The increased velocity (nearly at 97 mph this season) and strikeouts are a good sign, but if he can't limit the walks, he's going to have a big issue locking down games in the ninth. If you're desperate for saves, he looks like the current top option in KC, but I will certainly not be bidding any decent amount of money on him and am very pessimistic about him locking down the job for any real length of time.

Series of the Weekend

Red Sox @ Yankees. There's no way to get away from this series, as it not only matches huge rivals against each other, but the Yankees and Red Sox find themselves separated by only one game in the standings and currently maintain the two best winning percentages in all of baseball. The teams face off in New York in what is sure to be a spirited series, as both teams try to build some sort of small lead heading into the second half. This series features the top two offenses by OPS and the two teams also lead all of baseball in home runs. The Yankees already have seven players with double digit home runs, and the Red Sox feature six such players and are the only team with two players with 20-plus homers. Offense clearly is going to be on display in this series, but who will be on the mound to try and keeps these offenses at bay?

The Red Sox are sending three lefties to the hill against the Yankees, including their ace, Chris Sale, on Saturday. Sale has been a true ace all season long, leading the American League in strikeouts while compiling a 2.56 ERA over 109 innings. On Sunday, they will send David Price to the mound, who may be the key to how deep the Red Sox go in the playoffs as they become a true monster of a team, if he can step up as a second ace behind Sale. After a bit of a blip in late April and early May when he allowed 16 runs over a three-start stretch, he has been on a huge roll, allowing three runs or fewer in his last nine starts. He's scheduled to match up against Luis Severino on Sunday which should be a fantastic game with Severino entering with a 2.10 ERA, good for second best in the AL.

The Yankees will send Sonny Gray to the mound on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see how he fairs against the Sox, as he's finally in his first good stretch of the season. After the first two months left him with an ERA around 6.00, Gray has thrown 30.2 innings in June to the tune of a 3.23 ERA. He has found his control and is only walking 1.76 batters per nine in June after walks were an issue for him early on. In Gray's only start against Boston this year, an April tilt in Fenway Park, he had a rough outing, lasting only three innings while allowing six earned runs. He will be facing Sale on Saturday, so he will need to be way better than that for the Yankees to hang around in that game. This matchup is always fun, but the intensity should be ramped up this weekend with the success to date for these two squads.