MLB Barometer: One-Year Risers: Hitters

For the next two weeks, I'm focusing on changes over a greater period of time.

This week, it's all about hitters on the rise. Next week, I will focus on pitchers.

Most specifically, I'm using the FanGraphs Past Calendar Year Leaderboards to uncover some of the biggest risers in value since the middle of last season (last July 1).

Each player's overall NFBC average draft position, and positional ADP rank are included beneath the position headings.

Plenty of other players have increased significantly in value since this time last year, and since draft day, including several that were not in the big leagues until 2018 (i.e. Juan Soto and Max Muncy).

The goal is to develop a better understanding of what has caused these shifts in value and how sustainable the increased production might be going forward.

Catchers

- J.T. Realmuto (ADP: 108.74, 5th)
- Kurt Suzuki (ADP: 386.56, 29th)
- Max Stassi (ADP: 485.34, 89th)

Unless your league uses OBP in place of batting average, J.T. Realmuto is no worse than the third-best catcher in the pool over the past calendar year. Thanks to an increase in HR/FB (from 11.6% to 16.1% in 2018), Realmuto is currently on pace for his first 20-homer season, with slightly better run production than his output with a much better supporting cast in Miami last season. He may end up in a better lineup and a more hitter-friendly environment at some point during the next month, as the Marlins continue re-shaping their roster for the future. Relative to other catchers, he wasn't grossly underpriced during draft season, but with Evan Gattis on track to lose his eligibility behind the plate, Realmuto versus Willson Contreras might be a toss-up for those considering a backstop in the first 65-80 picks in 2019.

Suzuki has maintained the altered approach we saw during his surprising 2017 resurgence, avoiding grounders, and making a lot of hard contact. He's made those changes without bringing a barrage of whiffs into his profile, and entering play Monday, he's struck out 9.9% of the time -- his lowest mark since 2014. Last season, the 19 homers he hit in just 276 plate appearances were backed by a 17.1% HR/FB, which has tumbled to 11.1% in 2018. Even with that, he's on track for 15-plus homers thanks to an early-season run as the Braves' primary catcher while Tyler Flowers was on the disabled list. Turning 35 in October, the prices will likely remain low heading into 2019 as teams might be hesitant to put a heavy workload on his shoulders. As a pending free agent, a lot will change depending on where he ends up signing this winter, but Suzuki is well on his way toward another top-12 finish behind the plate.

Stassi played sparingly in 2017, but he's carrying a .242/.333/.479 line with nine homers in fewer than 200 plate appearances over the past calendar year. Brian McCann is a free agent this offseason, and barring the acquisition of a workhorse to play in front of him, Stassi could see a heavier workload in Houston next season. In keeper leagues where he can be retained cheaply, Stassi is a nice target for those looking to the future for a potential bump in value behind the plate. In order for the increased opportunity to materialize, Stassi needs to improve against right-handed pitching (33.3% K% in 2018, .734 OPS), otherwise he may be stuck on the small side of a platoon (.316/.368/.556, 27.9% K%) as he continues to crush southpaws.

First Base

- Jose Martinez (ADP: 251.31, 27th)
- Jesus Aguilar (ADP: 477.90, 66th)

Martinez was a Statcast darling in 2017, with plenty of "sleeper" hype/ink in February and March, but even with that, the price was reasonable, as he did a lot of his damage last season against left-handed pitching, but the Cardinals' crowded depth chart made him vulnerable to losing playing time if he failed to replicate last season's success at the plate (.309/.379/.518). He's been similarly productive in the first half of 2018, with a .299/.367/.496 line, an improved K% (14.7%), and 13 homers through 76 games. Defense is still an issue, however, as he didn't transition particularly well to first base, and the Cards' crowded outfield isn't an ideal fit either. A move to the American League would be ideal, but he appears to be a legitimate 25-30 HR bat with the plate skills to support a .300 average.

The Brewers' addition of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain washed out the early-winter buzz about Aguilar's success in a part-time role in 2017, as he -- along with Domingo Santana -- appeared to be an odd-man out in the team's 2018 plans. An Eric Thames thumb injury opened the door for an extended look in May, and Aguilar continued to rake, bringing his past-year line up to .284/.346/.567 with 28 homers, 81 RBI, and 59 runs scored over 396 plate appearances. The approach has reasonable downside, thanks to a 27.8% K% during that span, but the improvement from 30.2% in 2017 to 25.6% in 2018, especially with more regular exposure to big-league pitching, as encouraging. Like Martinez, Aguilar could see his playing time dry up quickly if he slumps for a prolonged stretcher, since the Brewers have a few alternatives when their entire 25-man roster is healthy -- to make matters worse, Eric Thames is struggling in the outfield -- but Aguilar has more than offset disappointing production from Ryan Braun (95 wRC+) and Domingo Santana (79 wRC+ now at Triple-A) thus far.

Second Base

- Javier Baez (ADP: 104.89, 11th)
- Scooter Gennett (ADP: 205.46, 21st)

Is this the peak Baez we have been waiting for? The early-season surge in walk rates has proven to be a small-sample mirage, but he's cut his K% down from 28.3% in 2017 to 24.6% in 2018, and while the low walk rate hurts him in OBP formats, Baez hits the ball hard on a regular basis, and he runs extremely well. Players with the tools and green lights necessary to reach the 30-30 club are increasingly rare. According to the RotoWire in-season earned auction values, Baez has been the sixth-most valuable hitter in the entire league in 2018 (Trout, J.D., Jose Ramirez, Betts, Lindor). If he sustain 80-85 percent of his current pace, Baez might be a top-35-40 overall pick in 2019.

I wrote about Gennett a few weeks back. His power production has cooled over the last 30 games (three homers), but he's still driven in 17 runs and scored 21 while hitting .318 with a .364 OBP during that span. Among second basemen, only Jose Ramirez, Brian Dozier and Javier Baez have more homers than Gennett over the past calendar year (28). It's worth noting that the four-home game that Gennett posted last June is no longer captured by his rolling one-year stats. Since his arrival in Cincinnati, Gennett has hit 23 of his 40 homers at Great American Ball Park. For the second straight season, he's maintaining a hard-hit rate above 35 percent after failing to reach 25 percent during his final two seasons with the Brewers. If his baseline is .280+, 25 HR, and a good number of runs and RBI depending on his place in the lineup, Gennett might still be undervalued by some owners this season, and again during the spring.

Shortstop

- Francisco Lindor (ADP: 20.72, 3rd)
- Didi Gregorius (ADP: 120.41, 11th)

Prior to his two-homer game Monday night, Lindor had 40 homers to his name since July 1 of last season. His development as a power hitter is among the more surprising things that have happened over the past decade, and he's maintained plenty of speed (22 steals) while keeping his strikeout rate low (15.6%) during that span. Somehow, both Lindor and teammate Jose Ramirez have been high-end bargains to this point.

Gregorius has taken a very unusual path to a $23 earn value through the first half -- a mark that matches Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz to this point. The past calendar year has been very good in terms of counting stats -- 31 homers, 99 RBI, 94 runs, 11 steals -- despite a seemingly modest .263/.316/.474 line. During that span, 19 of the 31 homers have been hit at Yankee Stadium, and it's reasonable to think that he's still a 20-homer player in a neutral home park. Although he's returned top-40 overall value to this point, it seems unlikely that he's got another level to reach as he's already carrying a very low 12.4% K% since last July 1, and he would need to get even more flyball-happy with his approach to unlock more power, which could come at the expense of a lower batting average.

Third Base

- Jose Ramirez (ADP: 20.46, 4th)
- Eugenio Suarez (ADP: 186.58, 19th)

What's left to say with Ramirez? He was one of the players I was content to pass on at the Round 1-2 turn during draft season, and that has turned out to be a colossal mistake. In addition to drawing more walks in 2018, Ramirez is hitting the ball in the air more than ever (45.3%) while getting better results on flyballs than ever before (20.0% HR/FB). He's already hit 24 homers entering play Monday night, while going 14-for-16 as a basestealer. Ramirez is shaping up to a be a top-five pick in 2019, and the past-calendar year numbers near the midpoint of the season include a .305/.386/.608 line, 41 homers, 102 RBI, 112 runs, and 22 steals. It's amazing that the Indians have two infielders playing at an elite, MVP level.

Suarez has been a cheaper Nick Castellanos in 2018, while their past calendar year marks are very similar. Despite missing time earlier this season with a wrist injury, Suarez is hitting .284/.382/.514 with 30 homers, 101 RBI and 80 runs scored since last July 1 (145 games). For the second straight season, Suarez is drawing walks at a double-digit clip (11.3%), and for the first time as a big-leaguer, he's striking out less than 20 percent of the time (18.4%). Suarez turns 27 later this month, and he looks primed for an easy finish among the league's top 60-75 players, with a great chance of pushing his ADP close to the top-100 in 2019.

Outfield

- Eddie Rosario (ADP: 125.13, 34th)
- Mitch Haniger (ADP: 219.58, 53rd)
- Brandon Nimmo (ADP: 463.01, 182nd)

There were plenty of things to like about Rosario's 2017 breakout, but I bailed pretty quickly when a triceps injury became an issue for him during spring training. Since last July 1, Rosario has more homers (35) than Mookie Betts, as many runs scored as Andrew Benintendi (102), and one fewer RBI than Aaron Judge (106), along with 13 steals for good measure. After significantly cutting down his strikeouts in 2017, Rosario has maintained that skill in 2018, while pushing his flyball rate to a career-high 45.3% (2017: 37.4%). Other than Ramirez and Lindor, Rosario might be the most valuable player in this piece going forward.

Haniger will jump approximately 100 spots in ADP if he remains healthy and produces at his current pace the rest of the way. The power is legitimate, and his top-40 barrel rate (8.1%) points toward a 30-homer upside along with a better slash line than the .272/.355/.497 he's put together so far. Over the last two seasons, he's 9-for-15 as a basestealer, so fewer green lights might be on the horizon.

Nimmo was written up a couple weeks back after being a key piece in a trade I made in mixed Tout Wars, but it's interesting that he's tied for 10th in wRC+ among outfielders since July 1 of last season (135). Like many players who made the cut this week, Nimmo's surge in flyballs, paired with better results on his flyballs thanks to an increase in hard contact has been the driving force behind his breakout, which tilts more heavily toward 2018 as he's altered his approach and found regular playing time since early May. A top-50 overall finish is within reach thanks to his combination of on-base skills, power and speed.