Minor League Barometer: Second-Half Prospecting

The minor league season is already more than half over. Who are some of the phenoms that have burst onto the scene or improved their stock thus far in 2018? A couple of the most rapid risers are pitcher Jesus Luzardo of the Athletics and first baseman Peter Alonso of the Mets. Luzardo started the Futures Game for the World Team, and the 20-year-old could be on the fast track to the majors. He has emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, a quick turnaround since he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016.

Meanwhile, Alonso hit a titanic home run in the Futures Game to punctuate a superior first half of the season. Alonso's breakout campaign has the Mets rethinking their first base situation. Another notable breakout has come from hurler Chris Paddack of the Padres, who has returned from Tommy John surgery to post dominating strikeout numbers.

Who else is on the rise or perhaps down in the dumps? Let's dive deeper into the prospect scene in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Ian Anderson, P, ATL – Anderson has been lights-out of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight-straight starts. Anderson has been even more impressive over his last three outings, surrendering just one earned run while posting a 26:4 K:BB over a span of 17 innings. Anderson's statistics at High-A are remarkably similar from his statistics from Low-A, and perhaps even a bit better, as he has walked a few less batters and yielded a few more ground balls. The Braves have a stacked system in terms of pitching arms, but Anderson should be right near the top and climbing.

Michael Kopech, P, CWS – The 22-year-old flamethrower has all the physical tools, but has battled control problems which have caused him to stay at Triple-A since the end of last season. He leads the International League in strikeouts as well as walks in 2018. Kopech flashed his huge upside in his last start Saturday, though. He allowed one earned run in six innings, scattering four hits, walking just one batter while striking out 11. Kopech has massive strikeout stuff, and when he can locate, he is among the top pitching phenoms in all of baseball. Consistency and command will be the name of the game for Kopech, but a few more performances like this and the White Sox may elect to see him strut his stuff in the big leagues.

Cedric Mullins, OF, BAL – It has been a rough year for the Orioles, both in the majors as well as in the minors. Only the Kansas City Royals have a worse record than the O's, who have been dealing with Manny Machado drama since last season. The O's would likely be wise to deal Machado to boost the farm system before he leaves via free agency and they get nothing. In the minors, top prospect Austin Hays has had a horrific season, going from starting outfielder to struggling at Double-A and ultimately landing on the Disabled List. Mullins has been one of the few bright spots, though, as the toolsy 23-year-old outfielder raked at Double-A while the aforementioned Hays floundered. Mullins hit .313/.362/.512 with six home runs, 28 RBI and nine steals in 49 games. That resulted in a promotion to Triple-A, and Mullins is batting .356 over his last 10 games at this level. If the Orioles decide to sell off parts other than Machado, Mullins could even see the big leagues before 2018 is completed.

MacKenzie Gore, P, SD – Since coming off of the Disabled List on June 10th, Gore has been superb for Low-A Fort Wayne. The 19-year-old southpaw has a 2.25 ERA and 35:10 K:BB over a span of 28 innings. He fanned 10 batters in his last outing Sunday. Gore has the pitches, the pedigree and the control to become an elite starter one day. All he has to prove is that he can stay healthy and withstand the rigors of being a frontline starter in the bigs. Time will tell, but Gore appears to be on the right track for now.

CHECK STATUS

Corey Ray, OF, MIL – Ray continues to be a toolsy outfielder with a suspect contact rate. The 23-year-old outfielder is batting .245 for Double-A Biloxi, and he has fanned 112 times in 90 games for the Shuckers. However, Ray also has 16 home runs and 27 steals. He leads the Southern League in both categories. Ray had a three homerun game on July 11th, then stole four bases in a contest on July 15th. His physical gifts are difficult to ignore, and he is not afraid to take a walk either. Ray has never hit above .247 at any level since entering the minors in 2016, though, so it remains to be seen if he will be able to hit for a high enough average at the higher levels.

Chad Spanberger, 1B, COL – As if the Rockies needed another hitting prospect, Spanberger has been raking all season at Low-A Asheville. Taking full advantage of his home park, Spanberger is slashing .319/.361/.595 with 22 home runs, 73 RBI and 16 steals through 85 games. He has been especially hot of late, batting .421 over his last 10 tilts. Spanberger is not the most patient batter, though, and his home and road splits are worth noting. Still, he would get to play half of his games in the hitter's paradise known as Coors Field, so perhaps they do not matter as much as other boppers in other systems. He will have some competition in this system as well, but suffice to say Spanberger's professional career has gotten off to a superior start since being drafted in the sixth round of last year's draft.

Triston McKenzie, P, CLE – It would be foolish to forget about McKenzie just because he has been injury-prone recently. His stuff remains electric, and, when healthy, few hurlers in the minors can match his potency. Still just 20 years of age as well, McKenzie is already at Double-A and has a 2.86 ERA through 44 innings. Opposing batters are hitting an anemic .182 against him. The 6-foot-5 righty fanned 186 batters in 143 innings a season ago, and while he has seen a drop in his strikeout rate from a season ago overall, he does appear to be getting his act together of late. McKenzie has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts, posting a 16:6 K:BB over that span. As long as McKenzie's lanky frame can hold up, he is still on the path to frontline starter status.

Darwinzon Hernandez, P, BOS – Control remains a concern for Hernandez, who may end up better suited for a bullpen role. Nevertheless, he has been a strikeout machine for High-A Salem this season. The burly southpaw has 87 strikeouts in 75.2 innings. That includes at least six strikeouts in seven of his last eight outings, and a 10-strikeout, no-hit performance on July 8th. He also walked five batters in that same game, though, so even he may not know where the ball is going all the time. Still the, 21-year-old has seen his ERA drop from almost a run and a half since the middle of June, and as a result his upside is tantalizing. Still, Hernandez has some kinks to work out before becoming a surefire part of the future for the Red Sox rotation.

DOWNGRADE

Austin Beck, OF, OAK – Beck is still just 19 years of age and has plenty of time to develop, but thus far his professional statistics have not matched his physical profile. Beck is surprisingly holding his own in terms of batting average for Low-A Beloit, hitting .292 through 80 games for the Snappers. However, he is hitting just .227 over his last 10 contests. In addition, on the season he has just one home run and five stolen bases. He was thought to have tremendous raw power and speed, so the lack of production in those categories is particularly puzzling. Once again, Beck is just a teenager and has plenty of time to mature. He has lots of upside, but the results have been rather curious thus far for the 2017 first round pick.

David Peterson, P, NYM – Peterson made quick work of the opposition in nine starts to begin the year at Low-A, but the tables have turned since a bump up to High-A. Arguably the top pitching prospect for the Mets entering the 2018 campaign, the 22-year-old has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.93 ERA in five outings sine being promoted. In 27.1 innings, Peterson has almost as many walks (13) as strikeouts (14). Opposing batters are hitting a crisp .315 against him. The sample size is small, but the level up in competition has certainly provided a rude awakening for Peterson, who cruised through Low-A with a 1.82 ERA and 57:11 K:BB in 59.1 innings previously.

Jeren Kendall, OF, LAD – Kendall has struggled with strikeouts since becoming a professional, perhaps a bit more than expected considering his supposed polish as a collegian at Vanderbilt. The 22-year-old has fanned 107 times in just 75 games at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, including 15 times over his last 10 outings. Kendall has superior speed and an excellent glove/arm combo in centerfield, but questions regarding his ability to make consistent contact will only continue to grow at this rate. Add in that the Dodgers have a bevy of outfield prospects in their system, and Kendall is a high-risk, high-reward type of prospect. He is physically gifted but batting just .228 overall in 2018.

Bo Bichette, SS, TOR – Perhaps Bichette misses the presence of infield mate Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. in the lineup for Double-A New Hampshire? The 20-year-old shortstop is hitting just .182 over his last 10 games at this level, having fanned 10 times while drawing just one walk over that span. Bichette still leads the Eastern League in stolen bases by a comfortable margin, though his batting average has fallen to .272. Bichette hadn't hit below .323 at any level since entering the minors in 2016. Bichette will get his teammate back soon enough, which should only help to boost his numbers back up and allow him some better pitches to hit. That being said, Bichette's jaunt to the big leagues may not be quite as direct as Vladdy Jr.'s.