MLB Barometer: Surprise, Surprise

I thought he was done.

As April turned into May, Matt Carpenter's month-long slump to begin the season, paired with a recent history of back and shoulder problems made me believe that he wasn't going to become the old, boring, bounce-back candidate I had expected him to be during draft season.

I've never been victory lap guy, but I'm ready to take the L when I'm wrong.

Carpenter's patient eye at the plate and long track record of a 20-homer floor despite nagging injuries suggested that he might be a cheap source of 30-homer pop if he could shake the injury bug as part of an improved St. Louis lineup in 2018. Through 25 games, he's hit .155/.305/.274, with two homers and 10 RBI along with a career-high 24.8% K%. With that, he's also carried an average exit velocity (88.57 mph) below the league average mark (89.11 mph). After receiving just one break from the starting lineup over the Cards' first 22 games, Carpenter sat twice in the span of five games (both times against a lefty) last week. The usage doesn't hint at the possibility of a lingering injury, but nearly all of the underlying metrics suggest that something is very wrong. The most dangerous thing about waiting for a player potentially injured player with a proven track record to return to form is the risk of getting stuck with an Old Maid card and missing out on significantly better production from a critical lineup spot along the way.

Hopefully, everybody who read that assessment of Carpenter was in a deep enough league to keep him around despite my advice.

Somehow, I've taken two L's with Carpenter this season.

Since May 16, he's hit .349/.441/.761 with 22 homers, 40 RBI and 52 runs scored, looking the part of an NL MVP candidate. The strikeout rate has fallen back under 20 percent during that span, and he's still drawing walks at an elevated clip (over 13 percent) while ranking among the league leaders in barrel rate for the 2018 season as a whole, thanks to a career-high 48.0 percent hard-hit rate (percentage of batted balls hit with an exit velocity of 95+ mph).

Carpenter tops this week's list of risers, in the wake of a huge series against the Cubs over the weekend, highlighted by a 5-for-5 effort with five extra-base hits Friday afternoon.

Here's a look at some of the other biggest risers and fallers in recent weeks.

Risers

Jose Peraza, SS, CIN -- Through 95 games, Peraza's line (.293/.340/.392) is within reach of his career mark (.283/.322/.365). Since I last wrote about him -- and suggested that he might be a utility player miscast as a regular by the Reds -- he's become more secure in his starting role thanks to a season-ending injury for top prospect Nick Senzel. Aside from the Senzel injury, Peraza has shown skills growth, posting the lowest K% of his career (10.7%) while drawing walks at a new career-best mark (5.6%). For the second straight year, he's grading out as an above-average defender, perhaps showing enough to make the Reds reconsider their plans for Senzel's regular defensive position (or that of Eugenio Suarez) for 2019 and beyond. With a 17-for-19 mark on the basepaths, Peraza is on the short list of players with a shot at reaching the 30-steals mark in 2018. Since the start of June, he's posted a 139 wRC+ -- ranking him in the top-50 overall among qualified hitters during that span. He's done everything that fantasy owners were hoping to receive from Delino DeShields Jr. this season, at a similar (and often lower) draft-day price, and with little hype.

Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX -- It's hard to believe, but Odor's numbers since the start of June are nearly identical to the output of Christian Yelich, which is particularly surprising in the plate discipline department. Odor is still striking out a lot -- 25.2% K% over 159 plate appearances during that span -- but he's walking enough (8.8%) to be encouraged about the return of his power and speed combo, which has yielded six homers (including the one he Sunday) and six stolen bases in that period. Just two months ago, Odor looked like he was flailing toward becoming a pre-arbitration contract extension failure for the Rangers' front office, and now he looks like a key piece in their rebuilding effort -- a core member of their roster capable of holding down a prominent place in the order on an everyday basis again. Odor narrowly missed posting consecutive 30-homer, 15-steal seasons in 2016 and 2017, and his career-high walk rate stands out as meaningful long-term growth in his age-24 campaign.

Brian Goodwin, OF, KC -- Goodwin is on the list of players that may have inadvertently blocked Juan Soto from a first-half callup from the Nats if he had been healthy when Howie Kendrick and Victor Robles went down earlier this season, while Adam Eaton was already on the shelf. With Soto's outstanding production and Eaton's return to health, Goodwin went back to spare-part status on the depth chart in D.C., which prompted the Nats to flip him to Kansas City on Sunday as part of a minor trade. He's always been an afterthought in the long-term play for the Nats, despite being a supplemental first-round pick back in 2011. An above-average runner, Goodwin also has a nice amount of a pop (16 homers in 401 career MLB plate appearances), and as a left-handed hitter, he has a chance to play on the large side of a platoon for a rebuilding Kansas City club. He's toolsy enough to speculate on in 15-team mixed leagues on the cheap, and it's worth keeping an eye on his role and lineup placement for manager Ned Yost in the coming days to see if he might actually provide some value in more shallow formats down the stretch, especially if he's given constant green lights on the basepaths (9-for-10 in 144 career games with Washington).

Danny Duffy, SP, KC -- Duffy failed to strike out a batter in a June 4 start against the Angels, generating just eight swinging strikes while throwing 99 pitches over five innings. He began tinkering with his arsenal after that start, gradually working his curveball back into the mix -- a pitch that he tabled after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in 2012, according to Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star. Since that donut against the Halos in early June, Duffy has reeled off a 53:22 K:BB over eight starts (51 innings), picking up four wins while pitching to a 2.47 ERA, offering hope that he'll look more like the pitcher he was over the last two seasons when he carried sub-4.00 ERA and good WHIP results (including a tidy 1.14 in 2016). With the curveball at his disposal, Duffy has three pitches that are generating whiff rates above 25 percent this season, and the extra breaking ball has seemingly made his sinker more effective.

Kirby Yates, RP, SD -- The Padres flipped Brad Hand (and Adam Cimber) to Cleveland during the All-Star break, giving the Indians a much-needed boost to their relief corps, and opening the door for a new closer to emerge in San Diego. Yates was owned in plenty of leagues prior to the trade, thanks to his excellent ratios (1.43 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) and high strikeout rate (32.4%, 11.5 K/9). Not surprisingly, there are a number of changes that Yates has made during his time in San Diego, which have led to the increase in whiffs and a surge in groundball rate (see this excellent piece from Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs for the full details.) The breakout slightly resembles that of Blake Parker a year ago, and it's easy to lose sight of the fact that Yates is already 31 years old. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time in his career this winter, but his age and three remaining years of control could make him another trade pieces for the Padres heading into the July 31 non-waiver deadline. If he stays in San Diego, he should finish the season as the preferred ninth-inning option with a path to top-15 closer status entering 2019.

Fallers

George Springer, OF, HOU -- Springer is well on his way to finishing with a sub-20 percent strikeout rate for the second straight season, and that's something I never expected to see from him when he first broke into the league with a 33 percent strikeout rate in 2014. Thanks to a career-low .275 BABIP, Springer's average sits at .249 -- the lowest mark he's posted since that whiff-heavy rookie season. The Statcast xAVG and xWOBA points to a small amount of bad luck on balls in play, specifically with fastballs and off-speed pitches, and the underlying numbers otherwise don't show anything that fully explains why he's getting so much less mileage on balls in play in 2018 compared to his career-year in 2017. A career-low 14.5% HR/FB (career 20.4%) has Springer trending toward a low-to-mid 20s home-run total, but his overall counting stats are still very good thanks to the quality of the lineup around him. The "second half" could change the tune, but this might be a case where 2017 is as good as it gets.

Jose Abreu, 1B, CHW -- Abreu has become a heavily discounted DFS option in recent weeks, regularly carrying a sub-$3K price on FanDuel and dropping into the mid-$3K range on DraftKings. He's produced with a lackluster supporting cast for most of his time on the south side of Chicago, consistently providing above-average contributions in power, run production, and batting average. He's been a replacement-level player for the White Sox in 2018, and his batting average dropped 44 points below his career average (.294), while his power output is lagging just under a 25-homer pace. Month-by-month, his average exit velocity has tumbled, which makes it easy to wonder if he's playing through an injury, or if he's struggling to square up pitches because he's making contact on pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (68.1%).

Eric Hosmer, 1B, SD -- Hosmer is striking out more than ever (22.6%) while hitting ground balls at the highest rate of his career (61.3% GB%). It's a terrible combination for any player, but it's particularly problematic for one who is playing half of his games in one of the most difficult home parks for left-handed power. A .245/.313/.392 line with 10 homers, 41 RBI and 41 runs scored through 95 games doesn't play in leagues with fewer than 15 teams, despite his stranglehold on everyday playing time and a place in the heart of the San Diego lineup. With seven years left on the eight-year, $144 million contract he signed during the winter, he'll likely get to see the full transformation of the lineup around him, while easing his way into the bottom-third of the batting order by the end of 2020, if not sooner.

Jon Lester, SP, CHC -- An eight-run outing at home against the Cardinals on Friday added more than a half-run to Lester's season ERA, the first big step of regression that many Lester owners have been expecting for weeks. The Cubs have graded out as the league's best defense to this point in the season, which can help the team's pitchers fly by with ERAs below their indicators, but Lester's FIP (4.66) is still miles from his current ERA (3.14). The strikeouts are going away (7.0 K/9, 18.5% K% -- his lowest rates since 2008), and they seem unlikely to return (8.2% swinging-strike rate). His value comes almost entirely from his team context and durability, as he'll get plenty of run support, while reaping the benefits of a bullpen that should effectively protect his leads. Imagine 2017 Cole Hamels on a better team. That's probably a fair expectation for Lester here on out.

Sean Newcomb, SP, ATL -- Newcomb hit a very rough patch before the All-Star break, posting a 7:12 K:BB in 12 innings (three starts) against the Yankees, Brewers and D-backs to lift his season ERA from 2.71 to 3.51. Since the start of June, Newcomb has a 7.0 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9 -- peripherals that leave nothing to get excited about -- giving him a 5.61 FIP (194th among 216 qualified pitcher, 20+ IP) during that span. Moreover, his average fastball velocity is down from 93.8 mph in his rookie season to 92.8 mph in Year 2, and eight of his 11 homers allowed this season have come over his last seven starts. Control has been an issue for Newcomb throughout his career, as he's carried a walk rate above 4.0 BB/9 at every full-season stop as a professional, and while he's improved his walk rate in 2018 from 5.1 BB/9 to 4.5, he's going to be a WHIP liability even if he maintains a steady strikeout rate.

Brad Hand, RP, CLE -- The move to Cleveland provides a temporary blow to the saves total for Hand owners, as the presence of Cody Allen in the ninth-inning role leaves Hand on the outside looking in at the bulk of those chances -- for now. Manager Terry Francona suggested that Allen will yield some opportunities based on matchups to Hand, who has an outside shot at reaching 100 strikeouts as a reliever for the third consecutive season. In many leagues, Hand is still good enough to use as a staff filler, and Allen's recent struggles have ballooned his season ERA to 4.95, which may leave the door open for Hand to take on a larger role. In keeper formats, there is still a lot to like long term, as Hand is under contract through 2020 with an option for 2021, and the Indians will likely allow Allen and Andrew Miller to walk this offseason as free agents.