Oak's Corner: Oaktown on Fire

Each week, I talk to a lot of friends who play fantasy baseball, and it feels like this week has been the worst week of the season for a lot of people. Between blown saves and injuries, this week has been one where checking the box scores or news is a scary proposition. This does happen in the dog days of the summer, but this week has been especially bad with big names like Stephen Strasburg, Aaron Judge, Blake Snell, Kris Bryant and Yoenis Cespedes going on the DL (or back on the DL), and then in a cruel twist of mother nature, fantasy owners lost home runs from Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi in the Red Sox rainout in Camden Yards rainout.

Standings are still moving a lot, and it's still July, but the talk in many places has definitely shifted to fantasy football, and I've started to notice a bit less activity in some of my leagues. I have said it before, but this is the exact time to refocus on your teams and find replacements for your injured guys and get it moving back in the right direction. There's a lot of season left, and it sure looks like the trade deadline this year could be a whirlwind of activity (even more so if the Nationals decide to sell depending on how their weekend goes), and this activity will lead to some lost jobs for your players (I own Soria and Britton in the NFBC Main Event; trust me, I feel your pain), but it's also going to open up opportunities.

While everyone will dissect the closer roles that open up, make sure to dig into who may get increased player time either from a lineup spot opening or a team looking at youngsters down the stretch. Similarly, if a starter gets moved, take a close look at the pitcher called up to take his rotation spot to see if it might be someone who could help you in a category you need to make up some ground. I've seen large leads lost and large comebacks made in September alone, so with more than nine weeks left, you have plenty of time to make your run with a little bit of work.

The Week That Was

Khris Davis is a fascinating guy to watch, and I end up watching him alot being that he plays for my favorite team. As a quick aside (I could do the whole column on this team right now!), how fun is this A's team right now? A team that no one picked to be good is currently tied for the fourth most wins in baseball with a starting rotation decimated by injuries. Crazy, I imagine at some point the starting pitching it going to catch up to them, but I'm hoping they add a starter or two before the trade deadline to try and help out the situation.

Anyway, back to KD, he's so interesting to watch as there are legitimately stretches where you are sure he's never going to get a hit again, and then he has runs where you're positive every fly ball he hits is going to go out. After a 29-game stretch where Davis homered only once, he has caught fire this week, with six homers in his last five games, including a two-out, two-strike, two-run bomb in the ninth inning on Wednesday night went into the upper tank in Arlington, to the opposite field! For all his streakiness within a season, Davis has quietly been one of the most consistent power hitters in baseball the last three seasons, with exactly a .247 in three straight seasons entering 2018, and 42 and 43 homers in the last two years. Davis is right in line with those number so far this year, and with his recent spree, he has a chance to reach the 40-homer level once again this year.

A closer look shows that this year is the best Davis has been, as while he always hits the ball hard, but he has ramped up his hard hit rate to 50 percent, good for third best in baseball. He still strikes out a lot, but has lowered his strikeout rate to 27 percent, down from his career high 29.9 percent last season. Further, he has significantly limited his soft contact rate down to 9.8 percent, the first time in his career that number has been under 10 percent. Someone asked me if I would sell high on KD right now, but I'm a strong hold on him, as we know the power will be there, and his secondary numbers look better than prior seasons. With the A's improved overall offense, the counting categories have a chance to be nice down the stretch.

I'm continuously stunned that the Cubs keep tossing Tyler Chatwood out there every five days. He only lasted 4.2 innings on Thursday, walking six more batters while allowing four runs. Chatwood has now made 19 starts for the Cubs in 2018 and it's almost impossible to believe that he has walked 85 batters in 94 innings. That is bonkers. He actually has more walks than strikeouts, so I'm guessing that K/BB ratio isn't exactly what we are looking for. Chatwood has finally been dropped in many leagues but is still owned in 41 percent of NFBC Main Event Leagues, and while I understand pitching is hard to find, a 1.78 Whip should be zero percent owned.

Max Kepler has been a disappointment so far in 2018, hitting an ugly .227 with only 13 homers, but I see a number of things that make him someone I'd pick up or trade for on the cheap for the remainder of the season. Kepler has dropped his strikeout rate by more than four percent this season to 15.8 percent, and has his walk rate is in double digits at 11.5 percent for the first time in his career. The drop in strikeouts coincides with a nice drop in his swinging strike rate to 7.3 percent. He has also significantly bumped up his hard hit rate to 38.7 percent while also hitting a career high 45.4 percent fly balls. The abundance of fly balls might be contributing to depressed .240 BABIP, but if Kepler continues to hit the ball hard, I think the BABIP is going to come up and bring his average with it. I have to believe the career low 10.1 percent HR/FB is also going to move up.

Weirdly, Kepler has struggled in a big way against righties this season, putting up a meager .213 average with a .700 OPS against them. Between 2016 and 2017, Kepler posted an OPS over .800 against righties so that's likely to turn around at some point this season. I like how Kepler's profile looks right now, and he could be acquired very cheaply in deep leagues and might even be found on the waiver wire in shallow leagues as he's owned in only 74 percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues. Kepler is an off-the-radar hitter who could really help you the last nine weeks. Grabbing him now is going to leave you with a nice run of stats the final two months.

FAAB Feelings

Derek Holland – I have avoided Holland for years, but the dearth of good starters in FAAB at the point of the season led me to take a closer look at him. After a brief stint in which he went to the bullpen when Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija came back, Holland is back in the rotation and is scheduled for two starts this week, one in San Diego against the Padres and one in Arizona versus the Diamondbacks. Impressively, in his last eight starts dating back to June 4, Holland has allowed three or fewer runs in each outing. In that stretch since June 4, Holland has posted a 2.72 ERA in 49.2 innings with a 11.1 K/9 strikeout rate and a walk rate under 3.00 BB/9. His hard hit rate is a bit high at 38.6 percent in that time, but we're talking a free agent pickup, so we aren't going to hit on everything.

You can grab Holland in deeper leagues, as he's only owned at 56 percent in the NFBC 15-team Main Event and is available almost everywhere in 12-teamers as he's owned at only eight percent. The Padres matchup is sweet. They rank last in MLB in OPS although they are a bit better against lefties. Arizona has been a below average offense overall, ranking in the bottom 10 with a .703 OPS, but they are also better against lefties, ranking ninth with a .744 OPS against southpaws. The matchups are pretty good (especially the Padres), but of course, I wish the starts were at AT&T park. It has been tough to find solid, two-start pitchers this year in deeper leagues, and I'm definitely taking a shot on Holland based on his recent form, but I admit his past failures while on my team do still reside in the back of my head, and I'll temper my bids a touch.

Kendrys Morales – After years of consistent offense, Morales has become a bit of an afterthought in fantasy leagues, owned in only 16 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. His utility-only eligibility hurt his price in drafts, but during the course of this season, he has gained first-base eligibility, which is obviously very helpful, especially in a season when first base has been quite weak. Morales has had a quiet season to date, hitting .259 with only 11 home runs, but he has been getting better as the season has gone along. He currently has a career high 43.4 percent hard hit rate, but that becomes even more impressive when you consider that his hard hit rate in March and April was 27.5 percent when he hit .160 over his first 50 at bats. Since June 1, Morales is hitting .306 with seven homers in 42 games. He's 35 now, and the Blue Jays lineup is nowhere near what it was in years' past, but he's still a guy who hit 58 homers over the past two seasons. With his strong batted ball profile as of late, I like his chances to be a sneaky help over the final 10 weeks and is readily available in 12-team leagues.

Chad Pinder – Pinder is more of a play in daily leagues or deeper leagues where you have bi-weekly moves, but it needs to be pointed out how good he's been against left-handed pitching this year. When the A's face a lefty, Pinder often finds himself in the two hole of a good offense, and he has delivered with a .856 OPS with five homers in 103 at bats against lefties. Those are good numbers, especially for a guy not highly owned, but a closer look reveals an absurd 58.3 percent hard hit rate (trails only Giancarlo Stanton!) against lefties, which makes him someone I want in my lineup whenever the A's face a lefty. In a deep daily league, he's a prime add, as you can use him only when a lefty is starting. Even in a weekly leagues with 15 teams where you can play him when the A's face two or more lefties in a series, I think he will provide nice value, especially when you consider he's eligible at second base, shortstop and outfield.

The closer position continues to be a headache between solid closers going on the DL (Doolittle, Morrow and Vizcaino recently) and other closers getting traded out of their roles. Joakim Soria, Zach Britton and Brad Hand have been dealt, and there promises to be more movement at the position before the trade deadline on Tuesday afternoon. There could always be surprises, but some current closers who have been rumored to be on the block are Keone Kela, Kirby Yates, Shane Greene, Bud Norris and even the recently acquired Kelvin Herrera.

Some trade deadlines end up being much ado about nothing, but, especially in the closer market, this one feels like it could be one that really shakes up saves for the final two months. This weekend is your last chance to speculate on possible replacements, but a lot of the situations are murky even if the incumbent is dealt to a contender. Regarding Kela, we discussed Texas a couple of weeks ago, but it's worth noting that with Kela unavailable against the A's Wednesday, Jose Leclerc got the call to close out a one-run game. He blew it (oh Khris Davis!), but my money is still on Leclerc to close in Texas if they move Kela.

The White Sox jumped the trade deadline a few days by shipping their surprisingly effective closer Joakim Soria to the Brewers. Someone has to close games for the Sox, and they could employ a committee, but this weekend I'll bid on Jace Fry in that bullpen. Fry's ERA on the season only sits at 3.85, but a 2.27 FIP and a low 57.4 percent strand shows that better times might be ahead. He has shown an ability to strike out guys since he moved to reliever in 2017. His strikeout rate this year is 11.03 K/9 as his swinging strike rate has climbed to 13.9 percent this season. Fry is a lefty, which can sometimes cause a manager to leave him in his current role, especially since he has absolutely dominated lefties to the tune of a .146 wOBA with only five hits allowed through 59 lefties faced this year. Fry is only 25, and the White Sox would be best served to give him a shot in the role to see how he deals this year rather than turning to veterans Luis Avilan or the one and only Jeanmar Gomez. I'll watch this weekend to see what the Sox do with a save opp this weekend, but I was less than pleased to see Fry throw the seventh inning on Thursday.

Series of the Weekend

Dodgers at Braves – This is a matchup of two teams who could be in the playoffs, as the Dodgers lead the NL West by 1.5 games and the Braves hold a half-game lead on the second wild card. Of course, the Braves are also very much in the mix in their division as they trail the Phillies by a mere 2.5 games. The Dodgers took the first game of this four-game series on Thursday night, as Rich Hill continues to deal post-Super Blister (trademark Rotowire's Jeff Erickson) with a 2.20 ERA over his last 32.2 innings. The rest of this important series should be very fun, as it's highlighted by a couple of great pitching matchups on Friday and Saturday.

Friday night sees Braves' All Star Mike Foltynewicz taking on three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw. Folty has been huge for the Braves as they have become a surprise contender this season, compiling a 2.85 ERA over 107.1 innings. He has massively boosted his strikeouts to 10.48 K/9 from 2017's 8.36 K/9, while his swinging strike rate has also increased to 10.5 percent. However, the recent going hasn't gone well for the Braves righty, as after a stretch of nine starts in which he allowed a total of five runs, he has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts while giving up 21 hits in only 18.2 innings. A little blip was due for Foltynewicz, but if the Braves are going to stay in the race, they need him to get back to his first half self as he faces a tough task against this Dodgers offense.

Clayton Kershaw has been effective when on the mound this season with a 2.64 ERA in 81.2 innings, but there are a few items that concern me as I start to think about where he falls in my 2019 rankings. Obviously, he's still really damn good, but it's hard not to be a little bit concerned about the pretty sizeable velocity drop. After sitting around 93 mph for most of his career, Kershaw's average fastball is currently 90.9 mph. Some of that may be him dealing with injuries and trying to get back to normal, but it clearly has affected him, as his swinging strike rate is down three percent to 11.1 percent, and his strikeout rate is at 9.15 K/9, his lowest number since 2013. Don't get me wrong, a 2.64 ERA is still great, but he hasn't been vintage Kershaw and it's really hard to count on a full slate of innings in 2019. I plan on watching him closely on Friday night against these young Braves as I start to think about my pitching rankings for next season.

Saturday night should also be a fun matchup, as two lefties face off in Sean Newcomb and Alex Wood. Like Folty, Newcomb has fallen on some harder times recently, allowing 14 earned runs in only 18 July innings through four starts. His walks have been his lingering issue, but they have really jumped up in July with 16 walks in those 18 innings. He pitched well at Miami in his last outing, allowing only one run in six innings but he still walked four Marlins. Wood hasn't been quite the beast he was in 2017 when he posted a 2.72 ERA in 152.1 innings but he still has been solid for the Dodgers with an ERA of 3.87 in 111.2 innings, and his 3.47 FIP shows that it could have been even better. Wood has gotten his walks under 2.00 BB/9 for the first time in his career, but it has come with a drop in his strikeout rate to 7.90 K/9. This matchup of lefties should be a fun one as these teams battle all weekend to keep their spot in the tight National playoff race.