Oak’s Corner: A Career Year for Grandal

The trade deadline has come and gone (and it sure was a wild one), and we now enter the home stretch of the baseball season as pennant races heat up and the fantasy races do as well. In the last couple of weeks, I have started to see some teams lose activity, and some of the teams grinding out every week have started to make their move up the standings. I have a couple of leagues where I have started to finally gain some traction, and I know I say it a lot, but the loss of focus to football drafts is a very real thing. Keep grinding and hopefully we can find some late gems here to help you get over that hump as we enter the stretch drive!

The Week That Was

It's amazing to think that for most of the offseason, Yasmani Grandal wasn't even the first catcher drafted on his own team. As the spring developed, he surpassed Austin Barnes in later drafts, but in 752 NFBC drafts over the course of the entire offseason, Barnes still snuck in with a lower ADP. Well, here we are at the start of August and Grandal has outhomered Barnes by only 18 taters, and he has an amazing 49 more RBI!

Grandal has been a beast at the catcher position, most impressively hitting .263 after hitting .228 and .247 the last two seasons. With 19 homers, he is also very likely to top his career high of 27 from 2016. He has been particularly hot as of late, hitting over .350 with eight homers since July 1. Grandal has cut his strikeout by 5.5 percent from 2017 to 21.5 percent while also bumping his hard hit rate to a career high 42.4 percent. There could be a very good argument that he has been the best catcher in fantasy leagues (it's him or Evan Gattis) and hitting in the middle of a surging Dodgers offense with the additions of Brian Dozier and Manny Machado, there's no other catcher for whom I would trade him. That is not something I would be saying in August, but he has just been that good and is surging at the exact right time.

There isn't much more about how good of a fantasy season Javier Baez is having, but every time I think he might go into a slump, he heats back up. After a great first three months of the season, all he's doing is hitting .350 with six homers and six steals since July 1. Baez was a huge prospect, but the concern was if he'd be able to hit for a good batting average with all his strikeouts. It's wild to look back on his rookie season in 2014 and see that obscene 41.5 percent strikeout rate in 229 pate appearances. Well, after back to back years hitting a solid .273, Baez is currently hitting .299 and has dropped the strikeout rate to 24 percent. He has also upped his hard hit rate to 39.7 percent and established a new career high line drive rate at 23.3 percent.

I know he has his moments where he comes off a bit cocky to some, and I might be biased since he's on my NFBC Main Event, but he's among the elite when considering which players are the most fun to watch. You obviously cannot trade for Baez right now, and I'm in no way looking to sell high on him with that sweet triple positional eligibility, but the interesting thing to think about is where he ends up getting drafted next year. Obviously, a slump sometime in the final two months could alter his price, but right now, he has to be a middle second rounder, especially considering he will again be eligible at second and shortstop, and could add third base, too, with another eight appearances. It might be tough to pull the trigger on him that early with the big power hitters who are usually in that range, but this end of the year stat line is certainly going to justify it, and as stolen bases become harder to find, those speed/power combos are pure gold.

Kole Calhoun is currently in the midst of one of the wackier seasons I can remember. He was the subject of jokes on Twitter about how truly awful his numbers were early in the season. Prior to hitting the DL at the start of June for a strained oblique, Calhoun was hitting an absurd .145 with one homer (one!) through 50 games and 185 plate appearances. His hard hit rate was actually respectable at 35.1 percent, but he was hitting 55.7 percent ground balls, and it all added up to an unfathomable .374 OPS.

After two plus weeks on the DL, he returned on June 18, and since then, he's hitting .302 with 13 homers in 144 plate appearances. Umm…okay? The stretch looks fully supported as he has a 46.9 percent hard hit rate and has returned to hitting fly balls at a 45.8 percent clip. Oh, and his OPS since he came back? Yea, it's only tied for 8th best in baseball (funny enough, with Grandal) for that time period at 1.051. So he has moved from maybe the worst player in baseball for the first two months to one of the best the last six weeks. I'm not sure I have ever seen quite an extreme swing. It's possible the oblique was injured early on and he was playing through it, but in a close look at the recent tear, I like everything I see and am a full hold on Calhoun right now. He has become someone I added just on spec when he looked good his first week back to an every-week guy for me.

FAAB Feelings

Jonathan Villar – Amidst all the big names being moved on trade deadline day, Villar might actually be the guy who benefits the most from the change of scenery. Villar's playing time had already been slipping away in the Milwaukee infield, but the when the Brewers acquired Mike Moustakas and announced Travis Shaw was switching to second base, that playing time was just gone. Villar was swapped to the Orioles as part of the Jonathan Schoop deal, which got done just under the wire, and he falls into a situation where he should have a free run of playing time and is even leading off for the Orioles on Thursday night.

Villar is only two years off his monstrous 19 homer/62 stolen base 2016 campaign, and while that is clearly an extreme outlier for Villar, with stolen bases almost impossible to find this year, this is the best opportunity you will get in free agency the rest of the way to grab a chunk of steals. Villar was held in many leagues because of that stolen base upside, but he's available in 29 percent of NFBC 15-team leagues and 32 percent of the 12-teamers, so definitely check your league, as it's very possible his owner finally got frustrated and dropped him.

Villar has struggled so far this year, hitting only six homers while hitting .261, but he has still managed to swipe 14 bags in 279 plate appearances. His fly ball rate has dropped to 16.2 percent, so it's no surprise that those 19 homers haven't come back, but he still has a line drive rate over 20 percent, so he should at least find some hits. This is strictly a stolen base play, and I know Buck Showalter usually limits the running game, but with the Orioles as out of it as out of it can be, Villar still has a shot at double-digit bags the rest of the way with everyday playing time. That would be a significant amount in league standings with how bunched up stolen bases are in many fantasy leagues. He's a slam dunk bid for anyone with points to gain in steals.

Clay Buchholz – Since coming off the DL after the All Star break after missing nearly a month with an oblique injury, Buchholz has made two starts, allowing four runs over 12.1 innings and racking up wins in both starts. After missing almost the entire 2017 season, Buchholz has pitched well for the D'Backs this year, posting a 2.65 ERA over nine starts. His strikeouts are up from 2016 to 7.59 K/9, and he has dropped him walk rate nicely to 2.12 BB/9. We all know and have likely experienced the ups and downs over his career, but the downs tend to be when he gets in trouble with the free passes.

The concern that does come up with looking at Buchholz is that his velocity is at a career low 90.3 percent although he's throwing his fastball only 41.6 percent of the time, but he has managed a positive pitch value with his fastball so far. After watched Buchholz in his last couple of starts, it looks like he is mixing pitches well, but it has to be noted that his hard hit rate on the season is elevated at 36.9 percent and his BABIP has helped a lot at only .255. I currently see Buchholz as a matchup play and am planning to use him when he's in a good spot. This upcoming week he gets the Reds, who traded Adam Duvall and have two other starting outfielders on the DL. I'd be willing to risk him despite the offensive ballpark in which Cincy plays. The 2.65 ERA clearly isn't going to stand, but in a deep league where streaming pitchers have been very difficult to find this year, I think he's worth a roster spot and that he'll have an ERA under 4.00 the rest of the way.

A Closer Look

The Blue Jays shipped out the soon-to-be activated yet controversial Roberto Osuna, opening up their closer role for the final two months of the season. Tyler Clippard and Ryan Tepera haven't done a lot to lock down the role during Osuna's suspension, which makes the return of Ken Giles in the Osuna deal very interesting. Giles has suffered from a few blowups this season, including punching himself in the face after one outing and most recently cursing at his manager coming off the mound, which led to a demotion to Triple-A on July 11. Giles' ugly 4.99 ERA so far in 2018 does stick out, but a closer look at his numbers offers a lot of positives. Giles' strikeouts are down a bit from his elevated levels of the past, but his extreme decrease in walks puts his K-BB rate at 10.33, which is a career high. He has been victimized by a high BABIP at .366 and a depressed 60.8 percent strand rate, both of which help to explain his 2.28 FIP.

Giles is coming off a 2017 when he posted a 2.30 ERA with 34 saves and 83 strikeouts in 62.2 innings, and one would think with the options the Jays have in house that he has an excellent chance to close for them at some point in the final two months. After his demotion to AAA, Giles was dropped in most leagues and is currently owned in only 27 percent of NFBC 15-team Main Event leagues and 38 percent (higher number maybe due to more teams that aren't as active in the 12-team game) of the 12-team contests. While discussing the trade initially, Jays manager John Gibbons indicated that Giles would get the chance to close out some games for the Jays, and I would imagine it will be more than some, as they want to do a trial run this year to see if he's going to be their guy entering 2019. This is still a very talented pitcher drafted as a top-10 closer this season with an ADP of 93. If you need saves and he's available, among guys who fell into a closer role due to the trade deadline, he easily the highest upside and highest likelihood to keep the role.

A few weeks ago, we discussed the possible value of Jose Leclerc after a Keone Kela trade, and the Rangers helped clarify the situation even more by also shipping off Jake Diekman. Leclerc looks very likely to get the first shot at closing for the Rangers, and he has enough interesting stuff going on to make him someone I would like to grab for the final two months. Leclerc's big issue right now is the walks, as his walk rate is currently 4.31 BB/9 through 39.2 innings, but believe it or not, that's actually a vast improvement from his 7.88 BB/9 number in 2017. Leclerc certainly has the punch out numbers to succeed in the ninth inning with a current 12.71 K/9 strikeout rate to go with a sweet 15.5 percent swinging strike rate. I think Leclerc is going to get the shot to be the guy for the Rangers,, and if like many teams, you need some saves for the stretch run, Leclerc is a definite bid this weekend where available, even pitching for a last place team.

Series of the Weekend

Cardinals at Pirates – There are two bigtime and sexy series this weekend with the Yankees visiting Fenway Park and a World Series rematch in Los Angeles, but I have discussed those four teams a lot this year, so I'm highlighting a series with a lot of importance in the National Wild Card race that could start to decide the fates of the two teams. It doesn't hurt that one of the big name acquisitions of the trade deadline is making his debut in the series on Friday.

The Cardinals and Pirates head into this weekend's tilt with identical 56-53 records, and they are both attempting to hang in the NL Wild Card race. The Cubs and Brewers have put a bit of distance between them in the NL Central, but the Cardinals and Pirates are each only four games out in the NL Wild Card chase, but with four teams ahead of them in that race, both squads need to hit the gas right about now.

New acquisition Chris Archer will take the hill for the Buccs on Friday night in his first start for the squad. Archer has been frustrating in fantasy leagues over the past three seasons as he often shows flashes of brilliance, but there's no way the fact that his ERA has been over 4.00 in each of those seasons. The biggest concern for me on Archer is the newfound elevated hard hit rate in the last two seasons. After sitting around 32 percent early in his career, Archer's hard hit rate jumped to 39.4 percent in 2017 and has climbed just over 40 percent this season, which is 12th worst in baseball among pitchers who have thrown more than 90 innings. The move from the AL East to the NL Central will certainly help, and Rotowire's Jason Collette pointed out on Twitter this week that Archer's ERA against the AL East in his career is 4.02 and only 3.40 against the rest of the league with 88 percent of his pitches thrown versus the Al East.

After some heavy offseason hype spurred by some impressive workout pictures, Gregory Polanco had a really rough start to the season, hitting .198 through the first month. He has turned it on in a big way as of late, hitting .296 with 11 homers and 34 RBI over 183 plate appearances since June 1. His hot streak has been big for the Pirates, as they have climbed back into the race and became big buyers at the deadline adding Archer and Kela. After three years of increasing his hard contact from 2014 to 2016, Polanco dropped all the way down to a 25.9 percent hard hit rate in 2017, and it felt like he was never truly healthy at any point. That number is back to 36.9 percent, which is a bit higher than his career high set in 2016. Even better, he sits at over 40 percent in hard contact since he started his better play the last two months. If the Pirates are going to continue their streaking ways, Polanco hitting really well is a huge key to their offense.

The Cardinals were riding the buyer/seller fence as the deadline approached, and despite a lot of rumors that they would trade closer Bud Norris and maybe others, they surprised everyone by trading Tommy Pham, a player on whom they had three more years of control. When looking at the Cardinals outfield without Pham, it opens up playing time for two interesting guys, Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill. It was announced that the two would likely platoon in center, but there's the chance that they could also take away some playing time from the .176 hitting Dexter Fowler at times and with Marcell Ozuna suffering a toe injury Thursday, so it's possible playing time in left field could open up, too, but Ozuna has said that he will be ready to go as soon as Friday.

From a fantasy perspective, O'Neill is particularly interesting as he has destroyed Triple-A this year to the tune of a ridiculous 26 homers in only 61 games – yes, you read that correctly. O'Neill struck out a ton (41.2 percent) in his short time with the Cardinals, but his recent minor league numbers have been in the mid-20s so I don't see that being a long term issue. O'Neill was dropped in almost all leagues (nine percent owned in the NFBC Main Event) when he quickly lost playing time with the Cardinals and then went back to Triple-A, but he's someone with actual upside who could be a legit contributor to your offense. The one qualifier is the playing time needs to get sorted out, but I have to think O'Neill gets a real look here in the final two months. Guys with a chance to produce at this level aren't easy to find in free agency, especially this late in the season, so he's a must bid for me this weekend in the hope the Cardinals find a way to get him in the lineup most days.