The Z Files: Navigating the Home Stretch

We've got six months to talk about next year, so let's stay focused on 2018 for another week. Granted, what follows isn't going to be "Column of the Year" material, but I'll do what I can to offer tips for managing the final 10 days of the fantasy season.

Streaming pitchers is a season-long endeavor, in which you hope the good outweighs the bad. Over-analyzing a start at this point of the season is a futile effort. Trust the process that got you here and cross your fingers.

This doesn't mean you should avoid making decisions within the context of your team's needs, position in the standings, etc. That's obligatory. Just don't alter your evaluation process. If you're still positioned to care about the composition of your staff, you must be doing something right.

Along these lines, something I discussed a few weeks ago was the reliability of quality-of-opposition metrics in Streaming Pitchers for Fun and Profit. It's already difficult enough choosing the sample size that best estimates how a team is playing in terms of run production and proclivity for striking out. Now you need to factor in the transient nature of lineups over the last week or so. This is most apropos for those in leagues with daily moves. Hopefully, this has been part of your toolbox all season, but just in case, we have the daily lineups as soon as they're available as well as default batting orders with a seven-day look-back at the actual lineups.

This may seem trivial, but every little bit counts at this point of the season – again, this is most actionable in leagues with daily transactions. As teams clinch their playoff berths, they'll have what I call "hangover days" following their magic number reaching zero. Most clubs prefer to play their hung-over reserves instead of their perhaps still under the "alcofluence of incohol" regulars. This could yield a soft start for a streaming pitcher. Anticipating these and grabbing the hurler a day in advance often provides a nice edge. Or, you can go the other way and pick up a batter you expect to play the following day if a clinch is a strong possibility that day. This is especially useful on Monday and Thursday when you likely have some starters with an off day. Plus, it's a really cool feeling knowing half your league is rushing to the waivers only to see you snagged their target arm already.

Sticking with batters, teams in the postseason dance will give their regulars rest down the stretch. This doesn't mean you automatically sit someone like Francisco Lindor the final week, it just means you need to factor in a few less at-bats when analyzing the matchups. On the other hand, players on non-contending teams that haven't lost playing time yet will likely continue to play every day. There's no reason to reserve someone like Nick Castellanos or Eugenio Suarez, except for players nursing an injury, such as Asdrubal Cabrera or Jose Abreu.

Here's something for those in weekly leagues that count play-in games between teams tied for a playoff berth (as you should, since MLB considers them regular-season games). Check the available free agents on the Dodgers and Rockies since among the six divisions, they have the best chance to tie for the title. We'll know by Sunday if the Brewers have a chance to catch the Cubs. The same applies to teams jousting for the wild-card spots. Secure anyone you can from those teams, assuming you have reserve space and the ability to reset lineups for the extra games. For what it's worth, once the Pirates are mathematically eliminated, their makeup contest with the Marlins, scheduled for Monday, October 1 will almost assuredly be canceled.

Another tip for weekly leagues is reviewing last week's releases. Teams locked into a standings position in steals or saves may have dropped a speedster or a closer who can no longer benefit them. Who knows, someone like Mallex Smith or Jeremy Jeffress may be available for deployment the final week.

Here's another tip with respect to steals. While swiping a base involves opportunity and timing, it also entails desire. It's amazing what currently having 17, 18, 27 or 28 swipes will do for motivation. Ending the campaign on 20 or 30 (or any multiple of 10) just looks better. Players needing between one and four more bags to end on a "zero" include Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Villar, Mookie Betts, Lorenzo Cain, Ender Inciarte, Tim Anderson, Adalberto Mondesi, Cesar Hernandez and Jose Altuve.

Finishing atop a major category or being in the running for an award can also be a motivating factor. Obviously, Boston isn't going to push Chris Sale, other that to get him ready for the playoffs. However, aces like Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer will be afforded every opportunity to add to their Cy Young resumes. The Red Sox may go easy on Sale, but if J.D. Martinez is within shouting distance of the Triple Crown, they have the luxury of keeping him in the lineup at designated hitter. As an aside, imagine the narrative if Martinez passes Khris Davis for the lead in homers, needing only to catch teammate Mookie Betts in batting average. Currently, Betts is .003 points ahead. Does Alex Cora play or sit Betts, especially if he shows any lingering sign of the recent soreness he's felt in his left side? Ultimately, the objective is the World Series, but the scenario could be fantastic reporter fodder the final weekend.

Wrapping up with what's likely a "Duh, Lord Obvious, tell me something I don't know" tip, pitching rotations are even more subject to change than they've been all season. I'll rank and update probable pitchers one more time this weekend, but I'll be less warm and fuzzy about the results than usual. However, there is something to consider that may not be self-evident. If you're chasing wins, it's pretty well-known using relievers may be more prudent than starters, even those in line for a double dip since both may not come to fruition. With the increased use in September of the opener-follower combo even outside of Tampa Bay, trying to discern the likely "followers" could vulture a win or two. For example, Daniel Mengden has twice come in after Liam Hendriks tossed the first frame for Oakland. There's a chance this occurs again Sunday, but if the next time it happens is Monday, Mengen is akin to a two-start pitcher, with the possibility of picking up a win despite working fewer than the five stanzas required of a "real" starter.