Mound Musings: The 2018 Season Pitching Awards Issue

It seems like just a few days ago I was chatting about the events of Spring Training. I would have to say that 2018 gave us even more surprises than usual. Injuries opened so many doors that might have otherwise never materialized. Fantasy baseball in general, and the pitching aspects of the game specifically, is rapidly evolving, and becoming more and more of a challenge. "Openers" have had a huge impact – making quality starts far more difficult to accumulate and innings more unpredictable. If that trend catches on, fantasy scoring may need to adjust, but for now, it's quite enough to just determine which pitchers will benefit, and which will suffer, from the growing swing hard and hope you hit it approach at the plate.

That said, let's get to my list of the 2018 award winners:

Newcomer Award – Miles Mikolas: The Cardinals have some incredibly talented starting pitchers, but most of them spent much of this season on the disabled list or otherwise struggling. The exception to that has been Mikolas. Technically, I suppose, he's not really a "newcomer," as he had a cup of coffee in the major leagues before spending a few seasons in Japan, remaking himself into a very competent pitcher. Back now, he is fairly new to the fantasy world, and those who jumped on his train this spring have to be thrilled with his 16-4 record, complemented by rock solid peripherals. He has a strong arm, but pitches to contact relying on exceptional command of his entire repertoire so his strikeout totals are modest, but even that side of his game has shown a gradual uptick as the season progressed. Welcome back to MLB, Mr. Mikolas!

Biggest (Pleasant) Surprise – Blake Snell: I'm reasonably certain most analysts (and fantasy owners) were predicting a potentially productive future for Snell. The raw talent was obvious. However, young lefties often have difficulties locking in their release points, so development can be an exercise in patience. On average, he was the 60th starting pitcher off the board in drafts this spring. That qualifies him as a fifth or sixth starter in most leagues. A modest investment with a lot of hope for good things. All he has done is go 20-5 with a microscopic 0.97 WHIP and 1.97 ERA, while piling up 200 strikeouts in just 169 innings. By any measuring stick, that's a top-five season, and he's still getting better as his command gets better, which will allow him to pitch deeper into games.

Biggest Disappointment – Luis Castillo: Castillo represents the flip side of the coin. One of the biggest "hype" pitchers this spring after posting some flashy numbers after being called up last year (1.07 WHIP, 3.12 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 89 innings), he sported an average draft slot of 26th among starting pitchers. That equates to a No. 2, or high No. 3, in most fantasy rotations. Unfortunately, inconsistency in his secondary pitches, and hitters building a book on his arsenal have led to a lackluster season. A strong September has helped him improve on the 1.31 WHIP and 5.07 ERA he owned at the end of August, but he gave us a lesson in looking beyond the numbers when formulating expectations. Don't get me wrong, Castillo could still be a very good pitcher if he continues to develop, but 2018 was not a value year for him.

From the Ashes Award – Clay Buchholz: His season included some pretty improbable innings but also found him on the disabled list with yet another elbow injury. Buchholz has a checkered history of injuries and equally depressing stats. He underwent surgery on a pronator mass in his elbow in April 2017. He then signed in the offseason with Kansas City, but was sent to the minors and eventually released in May. The Diamondbacks took a flyer and signed the 34-year-old to a minor league deal. Injuries to their rotation prompted a call-up for presumably a spot start in late May, but Buchholz decided to pitch his way into the regular rotation. His season came to an end earlier this month with the same elbow injury, but he will not require surgery. Ending 2018 with a solid 7-2 record and an eye-popping 2.01 ERA, his resurgence since pitching exclusively out of the stretch continues, and he'll hope for better health next spring.

The Stars Come Out Award – Trevor Bauer: This is a tough award to earn because it requires a significant move upward in my pitching tiers ranking. I have liked Bauer since he came out of UCLA in 2011, but he never seemed to pitch up to his raw ability. Lapses in focus and stretches of inefficiency haunted him, and led to mediocre peripherals. It was frustrating for fantasy owners who could see the potential and would start feeling very good about owning him after a string of dominant outings, only to see the gremlins arise again. I think, at long last, I'm ready to endorse Bauer as a pitcher to roster on your fantasy team. He typically gets deep into games, and missing more bats (11.6 K/9) with a tendency to deny homeruns has led to a 1.09 WHIP and 2.22 ERA. I'll take that.

Kevin Gregg Award – Cody Allen: This award is the ultimate smoke and mirrors honor. Named after one of the most famous (infamous?) mock closers in the history of the game, every year some guy zigs and zags through the season, somehow collecting a few saves. I gave the award to Allen because he maintained his closer status longer (or more consistently) than other contenders like Blake Parker, Brad Ziegler and all the Phillies' relievers not named Seranthony Dominguez. It's not all Allen's fault. He's better suited to a set-up roll, but the Indians' approach focuses on getting their best relievers (like Brad Hand and Andrew Miller) in the game earlier. Fantasy owners will take his 27 saves, but there was a downside with a 1.31 WHIP and 4.06 ERA.

Closer of the Year – Edwin Diaz: The AL West was a great place to watch the ninth inning in 2018. Diaz had arguably one of the best seasons in history for a late-inning reliever. He's at 56 saves and counting, he's posted a microscopic 0.79 WHIP with a nifty 2.02 ERA, and his 120 strikeouts (in 71 innings) isn't far behind many back-of-the-rotation starters. For most of the season he was literally untouchable, and the Mariners' tendency to play close games provided him with a steady flow of chances. He might have been the easiest pick for this year's awards. That said, the A's Blake Treinen may have been the most pleasant surprise among closers, and Texas' Jose Leclerc has stood out as the most impressive newcomer to the ninth inning gig.

Pitcher of the Year – Jacob deGrom: Here's the fantasy difference maker. Some readers might prefer someone else, but I think it would be difficult to find too much fault with my rationale. Obviously there are several other pitchers with a legitimate claim to this award, but there are a couple things that stand out about deGrom in my eyes. I will underscore consistency. Yes, he has just eight wins, but I can't blame him for playing on a poor team. He takes the ball every five days, and his reliability is almost unbelievable. The man has 26 quality starts. Some entire fantasy teams don't have that many. The last time he didn't log a quality start was in May (and the game was delayed more than an hour by rain). Obviously he is efficient. A 0.95 WHIP with a jaw-dropping 1.78 ERA and 251 strikeouts makes up for a lot of less productive innings from your other pitchers.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• There were a lot of contenders for the Biggest Disappointment awarded garnered by Castillo, but Dylan Bundy was definitely a frontrunner. Bundy again displayed incredible inconsistency as he defined the Orioles season – one in which they cashed in their chips at the trade deadline and moved into a full rebuild mode.

• I gave the From the Ashes award to Buchholz, but Atlanta's Anibal Sanchez received serious consideration. The only thing that held the oft-injured righty back was – you guessed it – injuries. He's been limited to 22 starts (125 innings), but he's given the Braves a chance to win in most of those outings.

• Minnesota's Jake Odorizzi was a consideration for the Disappointment award, but he has shown some movement in the right direction recently. Like so many pitchers, it's all about command for Odorizzi who has good, but not overwhelming, stuff. He's been throwing strikes, and the results have been encouraging.

• The Padres have just confirmed reports that southpaw Matt Strahm will be competing for a rotation spot next spring. He has an excellent fastball with a devastating slider and developing off-speed stuff. He will have to throw it all for strikes, but I like his upside. Add him to your 2019 pre-draft watch list.

• I'm going to mention Toronto's Ryan Borucki one more time before the season comes to a close. He's not overpowering, and I will admit eight shutout innings against the Orioles is not necessarily a harbinger of future stardom, but watching him, I continue to be impressed with his mound presence. He's a 2019 sleeper.

• One more sleeper (loosely defined) is Chris Archer. His performance since moving to Pittsburgh has been generally uninspiring, but the Pirates paid an exorbitant price for him, which makes me believe they are confident they can find the magic formula. The tools are there, and he may come at a discount.
  

The teams headed to the playoffs will manage bullpen workloads, but they will also focus on finalizing any role question marks. Case in point, the Yankees will plan to use their primary closer, Aroldis Chapman, in October so look for him to pitch the ninth as often as possible now that he's back off the disabled list. Conversely, the Cubs need to find a reliable end-gamer with Brandon Morrow ruled out for the rest of the season, and his caddy, Pedro Strop, out with a hamstring injury. My guess would be Steve Cishek, although Carl Edwards Jr. is an intriguing option. After struggling over much of the season, Brewers' 2017 All-Star Corey Knebel lost his closer's job. Jeremy Jeffress stepped in, allowing Josh Hader to return to the super-reliever role he has thrived in, however Knebel has been lights out recently, so he could possibly reclaim the gig.