Oak’s Corner: 2019 Targets

We have reached the final weekend of the season. Hopefully many of you are still competing for a league title this weekend, but either way, our lineups are in, and it's time to take an early look at 2019. I like to think about the next season a little bit in October, as the previous season is still fresh in my mine. Then I usually shut it down and don't think much about baseball until February. Last week, I took a look at some players whom I'll be fading at their likely price. This week I'll look for some players whom I will be targeting in 2019 at where I think their ADP lands.

Before that, I want to thank everyone for reading the column all year and hopefully some of the FAAB calls or trade targets or closer predictions helped you out, but if not, I hope you enjoyed it anyway! Thanks to RotoWire for giving me a spot to share my thoughts on the sport I love every week, and I look forward to an even better year in 2019!

Jameson Taillon – I love everything I see from Taillon, especially in the second half, and I won't be alone in that come March, but I'm willing to pay the elevated price. A year after he missed a chunk of time after surgery for testicular cancer, Taillon broke out in a big way, posting a 3.16 ERA in 185 innings over 31 starts. Taillon's strikeout rate stayed about the same at 8.37 K/9, but I really like that he bumped up his swinging strike rate from 82 percent in 2018 to 10.5 percent this season. It's also a nice positive that he dropped his walk rate from more than 3.00 walks per nine to 2.24 BB/9.

When looking at his batted ball profile, we see another positive, as he matched his 2017 hard hit rate at a mere 29.6 percent. In addition to suppressing hard contact, he also induces ground balls very well at 46.8 percent, a really sweet combo with the lack of hard hit balls. After throwing mostly fastballs and curveballs in 2017, Taillon added a slider this season, which he now throws 18 percent of the time, and it earned an 8.1 positive pitch value on Fangraphs. While I love most of his profile for the season, I really love how much better he got in the second half, compiling a 2.16 ERA over his last 79 innings. His strikeout rate did drop a bit in the second half, but he cut his walks under 2.00 BB/9 and managed to only allow 27.4 percent hard contact. In the Early Mocks drafts run by Justin Mason of Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Taillon has an ADP of 90, but I think he'll move up significantly in March, especially in the NFBC. I would definitely take Taillon in the fifth round of 15-teamers and, if I need to, I will probably be okay moving into the late fourth. If his ADP were to stick anywhere around 90 (it won't), I will own him across the board in 2019.

Dustin Fowler – Fowler famously had his 2017 season end when he ruptured a knee tendon in his first game in the Majors while playing for the Yankees. After being traded to the A's in the Sonny Gray trade at the 2017 trade deadline (Oh, Sonny, how your 2018 made me sad), Fowler was thought to be the A's center fielder of the future and was called up to the big club in May. After struggling in his first run of MLB play and not getting consistent playing time, he was sent back down the minors, and the emergence of Ramon Laureano in center field puts Fowler's 2018 position and playing time in question.

Fowler only hit .224 in 68 games with the A's and saw his strikeout rate elevate to 23.2 percent, a number higher than his usual rates under 20 percent in the minors. On the plus side, Fowler did hit the ball hard in his time with the A's, posting a 39.5 percent hard hit rate, and with that level of hard contact and his speed, I anticipate his .262 BABIP not repeating next year. Fowler has done really well in his time with Triple-A this season, hitting .341 in 239 plate appearances with 13 steals. That average came with a .400 BABIP to assist, but he also only stuck out 17.2 percent of the time, more in line with what I expect from him going forward. The A's outfield situation is a bit up in the air with Laureano's emergence (especially on defense, as that dude can flat out play center field!) and the solid debut of Nick Martini, but I would think that Fowler is significantly in their plans next season. A bit of playing time concern in March may help keep his price depressed. I plan on buying at the low price and expect a solid batting average with a lot of runs and a good chunk of stolen bases, all very late in drafts.

Tommy Pham – Pham was a popular player in March this year and ended the NFBC Main Event drafts with an ADP of 60 coming off his 23-homer/25-steal 2017 campaign. Pham has had a bit of an up and down 2018, but he's finishing it with a flourish, hitting .360 over his last 33 games with seven homers, three steals and 29 runs scored with his new team in Tampa Bay. After hitting .306 in 2017, Pham sits at .274 this season while seeing his walk rate drop two percent to 11.4, and his strikeout rate rise two percent to 24.5.

Pham has hit the ball hard all year despite the ups and downs, posting a 48.6 percent hard hit rate, which bodes well for a return to his 2017 batting average next year. With a 28 percent fly ball rate, Pham likely isn't going to be a massive home run threat, but if his average goes back up, he's likely to steal more bases just from being on base more often, as his OBP dropped down to .364 this season after sitting over .400 last season. I think Pham's ADP will likely start out in the 75 to 80 range but will trickle down in the draft season to the mid-60s but maybe not fully to his 2018 price. That puts him in the middle of the fifth round in 15-teamers, a spot at which I will be very anxious to grab him.

Travis Shaw – Shaw broke out in 2017 in his first season with the Brewers, hitting .273 while mashing 31 homers and driving in 101 runs, and he saw his ADP rise to 91.7 in NFBC Main Event drafts. While he has still displayed power this year with another 31 homers, his 30-point drop in batting average to .242 has made his season disappointing, which should drop his price a round or two next year. Assuming that occurs, I will definitely be there to grab Shaw, as I see very little different from last year besides his depressed BABIP. BABIP can sometimes be treated as the, "be all end all," but with a career .287 BABIP, his current .243 really sticks out, especially when considering he currently sports a career high 39.5 percent hard hit rate.

Shaw's fly ball rate has jumped to 44.8 percent, which could explain some of the batting average drop, but he has been around there in prior years without a BABIP anywhere near .243. Shaw really feels like he has hit into some bad luck this season, and with his likely return to Milwaukee (he will be in his first year of arbitration this season), I love the dynamic, both with the park and the lineup, of which he will hit in the middle. Further adding to my optimism, with the increase in hard contact, he has actually dropped his strikeout rate more than four percent to 18.2 while also dropping his swinging strike rate down to eight percent. I think Shaw falls into the 100s in ADP next season and that is a price I plan to pay often, especially when considering that Shaw will not only have eligibility at third base next season, but at second base also, and I love guys who can cover both the corner and middle infield positions.

Nick Pivetta – Pivetta has been frustrating to own in fantasy leagues this year, flashing great stuff and solid upside at times, but then often falling apart midstart. He has ended up with a 4.77 ERA in 32 starts and 164 innings. Blow-up starts have really been an issue for him, as he has posted seven different starts this season in which he allowed five earned runs or more, and in four of those seven starts, he lasted less than five innings. However, lost in some ugly numbers and some disastrous outings, there's a lot of good stuff that can be pulled out of his season, too.

Pivetta has upped his strikeout rate to 10.3 K/9 while also nicely dropping his walk rate under 3.00 BB/9. The increased strikeout rate is nicely supported with a large bump in his swinging strikeout rate from 8.7 percent to 12. In addition, he has dropped his hard hit rate down three percent to 32.1 percent, a solid rate in this era of hard contact. The homers have definitely been an issue for Pivetta, allowing 24, and his strand rate has also hurt him at 69 percent. Pivetta's FIP of 3.79 shows some of the upside he possesses if he can just avoid those big innings and home runs. He throws plenty hard, with an average fastball at 94.8 mph, but the next step he needs to take to fulfill his potential is to obtain better results with his heater, as it has been a significantly negative pitch for him in each of the past two seasons.

You can really see the possibility with Pivetta when you watch him pitch, and he will be a serviceable fantasy pitcher with a couple of tweaks with the chance to be a significant asset with a couple more tweaks after that. Finding those pitchers on the cusp who finally figure it out is a great way to find value in the draft. Pivetta will carry a small price tag and is a guy I'd like to get on many teams hoping for that step up in 2019.

Ken Giles – Giles has had a bit of a wacky season, with a demotion and a self-face punch, but has settled in nicely as the closer for the Blue Jays after being shipped there in the controversial Roberto Osuna trade. On the surface, Giles' numbers are very disappointing for his draft price tag, with a 4.74 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and only 25 saves, but looking into his profile finds a good amount to be interested in for 2019.

The strikeout drop is certainly a concern, falling to 9.30 K/9 after a rate of 11.92 K/9 in 2017, but with that has come a huge improvement in command with a 1.28 BB/9. Giles still throws really hard at 97.3 mph, and although his swinging strike rate had dropped a bit, it's still very good at 15.4 percent, and I expect the strikeouts will bounce back next year. His 62.7 percent strand rate has hurt him a lot, and his 3.16 FIP paints a much nicer picture than his ERA does.

Closers are going to be tricky in 2019, as the number of teams who are experimenting with committees and not naming a set closer or throwing their best guys in high leverage spots is increasing, and finding saves anchors will be difficult. Giles is team controlled for two more years, and looking at the Jays depth chart, the job should certainly be his in 2019, and that's a big part of the battle with closers. He will be priced down after his tumultuous 2018, but I think he has a good chance to be a strong second-tier closer at a third-tier price.

Joey Votto – If you drafted Votto in the middle of the second round of your fantasy league, you are likely not very pleased, as other second rounders this year include Francisco Lindor, J.D. Martinez, Jose Ramirez and Jacob deGrom. Votto is hitting .285, which is a step down from what you expected, but the counting stats are really the concerning aspect of Votto's season, as he only has 12 homers to go with 66 runs and 67 RBI. He has had some issues with his knee, but getting 12 homers in the second round for a guy who has played in 142 games is a really tough obstacle to overcome. Votto has maintained his elite strikeout to walk profile as he has more walks than strikeouts, and while his strikeout rate has jumped up nearly five percent to 16.3, it's still an excellent number.

Votto is still hitting the ball hard with a 41.5 percent hard hit rate, and his line drive rate trails only Freddie Freeman at 31.2 percent, but the lack of fly balls has really hurt his fantasy stats this year, and he has also suffered some misfortune with those fly balls. After bumping his fly ball rate up to 38 percent in 2017 in route to 36 homers, he has dropped back to 30 percent, and his HR/FB rate has dropped off in a huge way. His HR/FB rate is currently 9.8 percent, which is about half of his career average of 18.4 percent (and that number includes this year) and is also the lowest of his career. It's wild to think that rate comes in a year with the highest hard hit rate of his career, but it's also a number I expect to bounce back nicely in 2019. With all the young talent in the league moving up in drafts next year, Votto is going to slip to the third and maybe even the fourth round, and if I could get him late in the third, I'm going to jump every single time.

Hunter Renfroe – Renfroe really struggled early on. On July 31, he was hitting .232 with only eight homers in 62 games, which included about a month on the DL with an elbow injury. It was looking like a lost year for Renfroe in a crowded Padres outfield, but some injuries freed up playing time and Renfroe finally kicked down that door in the last two months of the season. Since August 1, Renfroe has taken advantage of his regular playing time to hit .264 with 17 homes and 40 RBI in only 49 games. Renfroe has dropped his strikeout rate four percent to 25.1, but even more impressively he has dropped that number to 22.5 percent over the last two months.

After posting a 34.6 percent hard hit rate in 2017, Renfroe has ramped up that number in a huge way to 47.1 percent this season, good for 10th best in baseball for anyone with at least 400 plate appearances. With all the young talent the Padres have, they likely will have a crowded outfield again in 2019, but Renfroe's last two months give him a huge leg up on the competition for a starting gig to begin the season, and while the power has always been real, he appears to have really figured something out in the second half. With a price tag likely in the middle rounds in 15-teamers, he presents a nice power upside guy for the price.

Thanks again for reading all year and for all the nice comments here and on Twitter all year long. Definitely hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk some baseball in the offseason, and I look forward to seeing everyone in the draft rooms in March! Have a great off-season and Go A's!