The Z Files: Early Top 15 Pitchers

Last week, I reviewed my Early Top 15 Hitters. In the spirit of the midterm elections, both sides deserve to be heard, so today, I'll reveal my initial top 15 pitchers. In the words of Bill Parcells, I reserve the right to change my mind. A new team, reporting of an injury or simply a closer inspection under the hood may perpetuate a change. That said, to provide a jumping-off point for discussion, let's take a look.

15. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

Before thumb-nailing Buehler, it should be noted the Dodgers soon-to-be sophomore is mere pennies ahead of Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg and James Paxton in terms of auction pricing. Also keep in mind that the backbone of my rankings is converting projections to a dollar amount, so I'm not as prone to recency bias, at least on paper. Players like Buehler will incur a playoff bump as well as a shiny new toy tax. This doesn't mean I won't fall prey to the same influences come draft or auction time, but hopefully my objective rank keeps me grounded. That said, my sense is Buehler will be ranked higher than this by the market, enabling me to grab one of the other trio, likely Greinke, at a more favorable cost.

Hopefully you don't need convincing Buehler has ace skills, though last season's 2.62 ERA was buoyed by a low .248 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), and hurlers possessing a ground ball rate 50 percent or greater tend to carry a higher hit rate. However, even normalizing his BABIP, we're looking at a low 3's ERA with more than a whiff an inning. The only real concern is minor, that being workload. Including playoffs and time on the farm, Buehler tossed 177 innings in 2018. With that total under his belt, the 24-year-old righty should be able to hurl the 170-180 frames necessary to support this ranking.

14. Patrick Corbin, Free Agent

Free agents get projected assuming a neutral park and team context, so Corbin's ultimate rank is up in the air, depending on his landing point. There are a couple yellow flags to consider when evaluating Corbin. He's not a flamethrower, so some are concerned his fastball lost nearly 1.5 mph compared to the previous couple of seasons. However, he uses the fastball as a keep-you-honest pitch, relying on his sinker and especially slider to get outs. So while the loss in velocity isn't detrimental in that regard, relying on a high-torque slider adds some injury risk, especially for a Tommy John recoveree. Drafting Corbin should in theory entail getting a health discount, but it's not likely to manifest due to the current state of second-tier pitching.

13. Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians

Promise me Bauer eclipses 200, or even 190, innings and I'll jump him up into the top five. But, you can't, so I'm not. The highest innings total of Bauer's career is 190 back in 2016. The 27-year-old righty has reached at least 175 stanzas in the last four seasons, which is fine in today's climate, just not top-five worthy. Bauer is as cerebral as he talented, a dangerous combination in today's era of analytics. His Twitter battles aside, Bauer understands the benefits of spin rate on certain pitches and has mastered the ability to throw it as such. This bodes well for down the line, when his fastball loses a few ticks. However, his knowledge of mechanics is partly responsible for an increase of velocity each of the past three campaigns.

12. Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

There are a few things in play here, all revolving around walk rate. History has taught us that when a pitcher improves his control, they often give back some of the gains the following campaign. While it's fair to point out Snell demonstrated better control post-break in 2017, there's still a reason to be wary he'll maintain 2018's level. Like most pitchers, Snell is more effective without men on base, especially in scoring position. Last season, Snell posted a low .241 BABIP despite a hard contact rate a little above league average. This suggests some good fortune. The repercussion is fewer baserunners, hence better skills. That is, there's a cascade effect. Fewer hits results in fewer free passes. Come 2019, assuming a normalized hit rate, it's fair to expect a slight uptick in walks. More ducks on the pond obviously means more runs. Snell still projects to an outstanding ERA, in the neighborhood of the past year's 2.95 FIP and 3.16 xFIP.

11. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

Promise me Syndergaard will throw 190 innings and I'll… yeah, you're right, I've already uses that one. The point is, it's health, not skills, keeping Thor from a higher rank. It's encouraging Syndergaard threw 154.1 innings in 2018, coming off a campaign where he managed only 30.1 MLB frames with another three on the farm. Still, until he eclipses the 180 level, paying for that number is a risky proposition. From a performance perspective, Syndergaard's strikeout rate dropped 5.2 percentage points from 2016, despite only a tiny drop in swinging strike rate. This portends a bump in whiffs in the upcoming campaign. Usually, the market is more bullish than I on Syndergaard. Early trends suggest we're on a par heading into 2019, so my level of interest will depend on league context.

10. Luis Severino, New York Yankees

Severino is a great example of how sometimes a difference in first-half and second-half performance is more happenstance and less skills-driven. To wit, Severino posted a sparkling 2.31 ERA in 128.1 pre-break innings as compared to a 5.57 mark in his final 63 frames. However, Severino's K rate minus BB rate was an identical 22.3 percent over both halves. The primary difference was a spike in BABIP and HR/FB (home run per fly ball). His BABIP rose from .278 to .379 while Severino's HR/FB ballooned from 9.3 percent to 15.3 percent. It's unfair to chalk up the second-half woes exclusively to bad luck, as there was some bad pitching contributing to the swoon. With another year under his belt, expect Severino to display more consistency, with results resembling the earlier surface stats.

9. Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros

Much of Cole's success with the Astros was predictable. The park was a sneaky upgrade, and the Houston organization's recognition of Cole's need to take advantage of his ability to spin the ball led to changes to his approach and sequencing. Cole abandoned his sinker, throwing more four-seam fastballs and curves. This, combined with the organic improvement from the park upgrade, resulted in a career year, fully supported by underlying metrics and corroborated with the various expected ERAs. There's nothing to highlight as an obvious candidate for regression. However, keep in mind skills aren't static. Cole essentially pitched to the high side of all his skills in concert last season. He could be the same guy but pitch to the lower side of his range, with a resultant regression in surface stats.

8. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

Carrasco was 2018's poster boy for ignoring surface stats and focusing on skills. After working on July 6, Carrasco was sporting a disappointing 4.28 ERA. However, his WHIP was a tidy 1.18 and he fanned 103 in 96.2 innings. His 3.62 FIP and 3.49 xFIP screamed for patience; better days lay ahead. After posting a 2.45 ERA the rest of the year, Carrasco concluded the campaign with a respectable 3.38 mark. His 2.94 FIP and 2.90 xFIP were predictably better, as he couldn't mitigate all the misfortune incurred to open the season. After amassing 200 and 192 innings the past two seasons, I'm relieving Carrasco of the injury-prone label. There's little indication the other teams in the AL Central will be appreciably better next summer, so he'll enjoy another soft schedule. While the market respects Carrasco, I have him slotted about five starters earlier than the early drafters. If I don't land on one of the other aces, I'll be thrilled to "settle" for Carrasco at a discount.

7. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

If you're looking to sacrifice a little ceiling for a solid floor, Nola is your man. There's really no downside to his game. The worst thing one can say is his strikeout rate falls a tad short of elite. Part of that is Citizens Bank Park has the stealth distinction of generating more foul pop outs than any other venue, and Nola takes advantage by inducing a healthy number of infield flies. As such, a few more batters are retired before Nola has a chance to fan them as compared to other pitchers. In 2018, Nola posted a low .251 BABIP, which is a strong candidate to regress. If it does, Nola's 2.37 ERA over this past season will climb towards its corresponding 3.01 FIP and 3.21 xFIP, still an excellent neighborhood in which to reside.

6. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

By the time you're reading this, Kershaw's 2019 home will likely be decided as he has an opt-out clause he can exercise. Dodgers Stadium is one of the best pitching venues in MLB, so if he leaves for a more hitter-friendly park, his rank could drop a spot or two. That said, Kershaw is the trickiest arm to peg on this list, as his plausible range of outcomes is wide. His loss of velocity and ongoing health concerns are well documented. If it were anyone but the best pitcher on the planet for the past 10 or so years, the ranking would suffer much more. As is, I may not be docking Kershaw enough for a possible skills decline. Projection theory expects improvement off down seasons and some give-back after stellar campaigns. Kershaw isn't old enough for standard aging algorithms to kick in, thus it becomes a subjective decision. Truth be told, no rank should be completely objective. However, more seasoning is necessary in a case like Kershaw. My gut says to ignore the numbers, you'll just know when the time is right to take the chance. You'll look at the available players and it will be clear you simply can't let him fall any further.

5. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Like Cole, Verlander quietly benefits from an under-appreciated pitcher's park. The usual tact when evaluating a pitcher approaching his 36th birthday is to get out a year too early as opposed to a year too late. Feel free to go down that road, but realize that Verlander shattered his career bests in both K rate and BB rate in 2018. He's showing no signs of slowing down, with a velocity commensurate with his salad days. At least early on, the market is a little bearish, giving Verlander a senior citizens discount. He's still being ranked in the top 10, just in the back half.

4. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

After Kershaw, Kluber is the next most worrisome potential ace. The yellow flags are a dip in velocity along with a second-half slide at a time when Kluber historically makes a push for the Cy Young. Let's look at the velocity first. His average mph has dipped each of the last four seasons, falling to a career low 92.4 in 2018. His other pitches, especially the changeup, saw a similar decline, so at least the delta between pitches is still there, helping to upset timing. Still, sitting 92 renders Kluber more susceptible, even with his plus secondary offerings. Checking how the drop affected swinging strikes, his 12.0 percent 2018 mark was in line with his 2014-2016 numbers but fell short of 2017's robust 15.6 percent level. It may just be 2017 will go down with 2014 as Kluber's best campaigns, so coming off that 2017 season, 2018 expectations were heightened. As for an uncharacteristically sluggish second half, it also appears to be a figment of being compared to lofty standards. Kluber's pre-break ERA was 2.76 in contrast to a still superb 3.10 afterwards. He fanned more over the second half but was victimized by a .321 BABIP. His post-break FIP and xFIP were actually better than his first half. If you want to drop Kluber down a couple notches due to losing a tick off his fastball, that's your prerogative. Personally, I don't think it's deserved, and neither does the early market as Kluber remains a top-five starter.

3. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Oh goody, I have another chance to share one of my favorite factoids, as deGrom is just two years and two months younger than Felix Hernandez. This speaks to both deGrom being a little older than you may believe as well as Hernandez dropping off at such a young age, albeit after logging an inordinate number of pitches, but that's a story for another day. Now the focus is deGrom and his ability to maintain such an elevated skills level, in particular his career-best 96 mph heater. There's a good chance this velocity has always been there but took a few more years to manifest as injuries curtailed his development. I suppose there's also the chance deGrom's tongue-in-cheek claim he'd increase his velocity by two mph after shedding his flowing locks was indeed prescient, but my money is on the former. Now healthy with continued short hair, I don't foresee a significant drop in velocity, so carrying over career-best strikeout numbers is plausible. The one area not likely to repeat is the paucity of homers. Sure, Citi Field helps in that regard, as does a low fly ball rate. However, a 6.3 percent HR/FB mark is likely unsustainable, even after accounting for park factors. Keeping in mind xFIP regresses homers, so his 2.60 mark is more indicative of what to expect than his 1.99 FIP and especially his actual 1.70 ERA.

2. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

As is evident by this confident ranking, I'm not worried about how Sale closed the season, missing time in September with a sore shoulder followed by lowered velocity and kid-glove treatment in the playoffs, most notable being bypassed in the potential series-clinching Game 5, where the lanky lefty ultimately worked the final inning. Perhaps I'm jaded by Alex Cora pushing all the right buttons while saying all the right things, but he explained David Price starting the deciding game was matchup-based, feeling Price was better suited for Dodgers Stadium and Sale the better option, if necessary, for Fenway Park. If there was anything wrong with Sale, he wouldn't have taken the hill with a seemingly safe four-run lead as there was no need to risk a long-term injury. So, while I'm not pegging Sale for 32 starts and 200 innings, I'm expecting an ample workload to justify this placement, as Sale possesses the top pure skillset in the game.

1. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Simply put, no one else owns the combination of skills and durability that Scherzer does, as he's notched six straight seasons hurling at least 200 frames. In five of those, he's surpassed 214 stanzas, averaging just under 219 in this span. He's coming off a career year in terms of strikeouts, buoyed by his highest average velocity. At 34, he's no spring chicken, but like Verlander, Scherzer is showing zero signs of slowing down. He's literally in a tier by himself, worthy of early first-round status.