The Z Files: Chasing Aces

Actually? No, you don't.

Truly, you don't. This isn't one of those cliché, "It's better to zig while everyone else is zagging," pieces. This isn't click bait or an effort to draw attention. It's a research-based counter to the notion it's necessary to draft aces to anchor ratios and provide strikeouts.

In today's fantasy environment, you can't have everything. Both the hitting and pitching pools are top-heavy. Focusing on one leads to deficiencies in the other. Getting a little of each could result in falling short in both.

There's a fantasy baseball mantra that has disappeared over the past few seasons. It's time to bring it back.

Bully hitting, manage pitching.

Four of the five hitting categories are counting stats, dependent on quality (batter's skills) and quantity (volume of playing time). Beyond a hitter's skills, factors such as spot in the batting order and team run-scoring potential bully counting stats.

Only three of the pitching categories are of the counting variety, and wins are fickle. Sure, better pitchers on better teams have a better chance at a victory, but the variance associated with a win exceeds that of any of the batting counting stats. Saves are concentrated in a small subset of the pitching pool and are also highly variant. Not only that, on a percentage basis, more saves emerge from the free agent pool or waiver wire than any hitting counting stat. Strikeouts are the only pitching category where bullying is assured to be effective.

Pitching ratios (ERA and WHIP) can be managed. Depending on the league context, streaming of two-start pitchers or single-start hurlers in a favorable matchup help keep ratios in check. The pitching inventory has an entire class of arms without a corresponding hitting group. Dominant middle relievers can be deployed to control ratios while offering some whiffs. Roster management entailing sage spot-starting supplemented with prudent middle relievers only sacrifices strikeouts. Even then, when done judiciously, punchouts can be bullied.

Hitting is devoid of this ability, save for perhaps using backstops with limited playing time. However, this requires ample counting stats from the non-catchers to mitigate the loss of those derived from the position.

Narrative is well and good. This is a numbers game so let's look at some data.

One of the tenets of bullying hitting is drafting players with more plate appearance (PA) and at-bats (AB). Production wise, runs (R) and steals (SB) are amplified by PA while homers (HR) and runs batted in (RBI) are embellished by AB. Here's the five-year PA and AB trend. Each is broken into 100 unit segments with the number of players totaling each listed, first for non-catchers, then for catchers. Also included is the number of players projected to fall within each range for the 2019 season. The projected totals are the average of the amounts from Rotowire, Baseball HQ and Mastersball.

Non-catcher Plate Appearances

Non-catcher At-Bats

Ignoring the 400-pound gorilla for a moment, an argument can be tendered that fewer hitters have ended up in the top tier the past couple of seasons, offering credence to the notion if you want one, draft them early. The assumption is not only will these hitters offer volume, they're likely better hitters on better teams. Alcides Escobar types are the exception.

The caveat with this is predictability. The 2017 and 2018 results are like those in 2014. Maybe it's injuries driving the disparities and 2019 will see a big bump in players within the top level.

That segues nicely into the colossal ape. The projected number of players expected to end up in the top tier is significantly fewer than recent seasons. Furthermore, the level anticipated to fall in the next two levels far exceeds recent history.

There are many possible avenues to analyze as relates to this data. The one most apropos to this discussion is if you want to draft a player most expect to finish in the top tier, it's imperative to take him early.

Based on this data, viable reasoning for taking pitchers early is batters with top-level PA or AB will emanate from lower rounds, so they don't have to be drafted. Yes, they will. However, they'll also emerge for those drafting hitting early, further adding to their already greater PA and AB total. Not to mention, do you want to base a draft plan on happening to get lucky with some hitters gaining more playing time than projected?

The catcher data is presented more to satisfy curiosity than affect early-round drafting, since the position isn't in play until later in the draft. That said, the data will be revisited later in the offseason in a catcher-centric strategy piece.

Catcher Plate Appearances

Catcher At-Bats

With scarcity factored in, a catcher doesn't need as many chances to be ranked among players with more PA. However, the quality of the current receiving corps is such they're absent from the first five rounds conversation.

While the above data certainly aids the ploy for not drafting an ace, it's hardly conclusive. The following table provides far more actionable proof. It incorporates the same array of projections referenced earlier with the current National Fantasy Baseball Championship Average Draft Position (NFBC ADP). These are 15-team draft and hold leagues. The ADP for the leagues with reserve and FAAB generally line up well with the draft and hold format.

To help understand the data, number of hitters drafted in each round is included, with their average projections. The last two columns are important. The first is PA/R, the second AB/RBI. The smaller the number, the more productive the hitter.

The primary argument is it's not obligatory to take one, or even two, of the 20 starting pitchers drafted in the first four rounds. This means as many as five teams could have two pitchers by this point in the draft while you, and perhaps others, don't have any. The reason for doing this is loading up on batter counting stats before there's a significant decline in availability, preventing the ability to bully them.

Focusing simply on the PA and AB of the first two rounds is a great place to start. Look at the drop to Round 3. It's by far the biggest in the first 10 rounds. Grabbing a hitter capable of bullying counting stats by both quality and quantity requires expending a pick, or picks, in the first two rounds. Doing so puts you on a pace for 50-100 more PA or AB than those picking one of the eight arms in that range. Catching up in ratios can be managed. Catching up in counting stats takes a lot more work.

To me, the most compelling basis for taking more bats early is the number of runs and RBI piggybacked far exceeds those of later picks. The conventional thinking is, "I can easily find power late." Yes, you can. However, fewer RBI come along for the ride. The last column demonstrates this. If it were strictly volume-based, the PA/R and AB/RBI would be the same throughout each round, but they aren't. Hitters drafted later play for lower-scoring teams or hit lower in the order, sometimes both. The effect is the same number of homers from an earlier drafted player produces more runs and RBI than from one taken later.

Perhaps the biggest mistake is those drafting two starters early feel they can wait a long time before addressing pitching again. The data shows they're not catching up in counting stats and often give back the early edge in pitching.

Conventional wisdom is finishing with 11 or 12 points in each category will win a 15-team league. Amassing that many points across the board in hitting is difficult without a couple top-30 hitters. Waiting on supplementing two early aces puts ratios in jeopardy, especially since more than 11 or 12 points are likely needed to make up the shortcomings in hitting.

Continuing with the concept of finishing fourth or fifth in each category wins the league, one of the underlying principles of pounding hitting early is you end up higher in the counting stats while managing the pitching ratios adroitly enough to win. Part of this is playing matchups and using dominant middle relievers. Another aspect is drafting better back-end starters than those opting for pitching early. As the above table demonstrates, the delta between playing time in adjacent rounds often is very small. Therefore, drafting pitching in these rounds will not cost hitting volume. That is, someone drafting pitching early can't contend they'll make up playing time while others are drafting pitching. Not only will they fail to cut into the early playing time deficit, they're taking batters with a less production per PA or AB.

Cherry-picking players to make this case isn't the best evidence, but in this instance, it provides solid support. Here's the group of players projected to swat between 29 and 31 homers:

You can take a pitcher instead of Charlie Blackmon, confident Hunter Renfroe will be available. You get your 30 homers but fall over 50 combined runs and RBI short of what Blackmon is expected to generate. The same can be said for eschewing Paul Goldschmidt for Justin Smoak, and Eugenio Suarez for Mike Moustakas (though, to be fair, where Moustakas plays could change things).

Keep in mind, this is strictly considering runs and RBI. Chances are, more steals and especially batting average dovetail with the hitters drafted sooner.

Let's lower the home run target. Here's the list of batters projected for 24-26 long balls:

Once again, it's possible to supplement power later. However, the associated run production is almost always a marked decrease from those drafted in the first 75 picks. Taking pitching early affords a huge bump in strikeouts, but it forces you to chase runs and RBI. The problem is, you're chasing a shadow because you can't catch up.

The bottom line is, there's no one-size-fits-all pathway to winning. Focusing on hitting early is a plausible means, despite some saying it's imperative to draft pitching. Managing pitching is hard, labor-intensive and risky. It's not for everyone. It's also league contextual. Remember, the NFBC is a no-trading format. In home leagues, especially of the keeper variety, trading from strength (hitting) to improve weakness (pitching) has likely been a staple strategy even as no-trading leagues began to emphasize arms. Still, in the NFBC, eschewing pitching can, and does work.

To be honest, a lot more can be written on this topic, but there's a significant amount to be digested already so let's stop here and open the floor up for questions and comments.