The Z Files: In Defense of Being Bearish

Ultimately, it comes down to ranking. Admittedly, my rankings are numbers-driven. I project player's performance then convert that to a formulaic "value", though I am loathe to that term. Even though the result is static, it's considered a range as projections are obviously not 100 percent accurate and valuation theory, no matter the system, is flawed – though since the shortcomings apply to all players, relative rank is still useful.

Others take a more zen approach. They have a feel for how a player will perform and rank him over a player they feel won't perform as well. For the record, I'm not saying my way is better. The fact that many zen rankers have soundly kicked my tail over the years precludes judgment. I'm merely framing the process to help understand where I differ in some instances.

One of the common traits of zen players is their willingness to embrace upside. It's not universal, but someone using feel over a spreadsheet is far more likely to pay for the high side of a player's performance range while those scientifically-oriented will favor the mid-point of the range. Again, not judging.

With that as a backdrop, there are two batters with a first-round NFBC ADP too rich for my blood. One is Ronald Acuna, the other is Alex Bregman. Since I'm a numbers guy, I'll present an analytical argument. Your team, your call.

Ronald Acuna

In NFBC drafts finishing after February 1, Acuna's ADP is 6, ranging from 5 to 10. My ranking is around 23. Here's my projection and last season's stats:

My midpoint expectation is for a drop in power and a lower average. The plate skills are similar, even a tick better. There are questions about where Acuna hits in the order as he's currently slated for cleanup, though there are several moving parts. The primary repercussion could be to steals, as total runs and RBI would stay close anywhere in the top-four spots in the order as evidenced by this table from the final 2018 National League stats.

Of course, not many teams have someone as athletic as Acuna in the four hole, so it isn't a sure thing the Braves curtail his running, but it's fair to be concerned. As someone whose projection encompasses all plausible scenarios, an injury to Josh Donaldson and/or Ender Inciarte and Ozzie Albies slumping could propel Acuna back to the top. As such, I'm keeping the steals generous.

For Acuna to warrant the sixth pick, his projection would need to be more like this:

As can be seen by the SLG and ISO, this incorporates some power regression from last season. Prorating Acuna's 2018 homers to 2019 playing time renders 34 dingers. My projection regresses his 21.1% HR/FB mark a little stronger. Truth be told, I'm beginning to wonder if I'm denting it too much. Giving Acuna 30 homers gets him to the first-round wheel. I can live with that. This adjustment is supported by Statcast data, specifically his excellent average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He doesn't own these levels based on 487 MLB trips to the dish, but these marks stabilize sooner than other metrics so it's fair to suggest he'll continue to whack the ball wicked hard.

That same argument, in tandem with well above-average foot speed, also supports a high BABIP. However, I'm not as willing to soften my stance in this area. Based on the projection for a .300 average, Acuna needs to carry a .363 BABIP. Sure, this is within a plausible range of expectations. Last season, J.D. Martinez, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts and Mallex Smith all eclipsed .363. Martinez and Betts were aided by a venue raising hits more than any other in the league not situated a mile above sea level. Smith is buoyed by a bunch of infield and bunt hits. Yelich, well, Yelich had a season for the ages and the only reason he's not included as a subject in this discussion is I still have him as a first round player, just not as high as the market. The bottom line is I can't base a projection on a .363 BABIP, the upper end of the reasonable range.

Could the .339 BABIP I presently expect be low? Yeah, maybe. Splitting the difference lands us near last season's .352 mark. Making that adjustment yields:

This boosts Acuna to eighth overall, which is well within shouting distance of his ADP. The catch is if he steals fewer bases and ends up in the high teens, he drops to the wheel again.

The result of this dissection of Acuna is I'm strongly contemplating increasing his homers, but not as apt to massage his BABIP. He'll be ranked higher, but not enough for me to warrant consideration where he's currently being taken. Your mileage may vary.

Alex Bregman

Using the same timeframe as Acuna, Bregman's NFBC ADP is 15, with a range from 11 to 20. My current ranking is near the second/third round wheel. Here's my projection:

Using the same method as earlier, let's give Bregman 30 homers and determine the batting average necessary to be worthy of the 15th pick.

Considering Bregman finished as the 17th overall fantasy player last season, it's no surprise the necessary projection for the 15th pick is close to last season's final numbers. It's fair to say, all Bregman needs to do to be a first round wheel pick is repeat last season.

Before putting Bregman's numbers under the microscope, it's necessary to point out the 17-spot leap from 23 to 6 for Acuna is steeper than the 15-spot difference between my Bregman ranking and the market. In terms of auction prices, we're looking at $10 for Acuna and $7 for Bregman. The driving force is the delta between adjacent players is greatest at the top of the rankings and decreases on down.

Something that never even came up with Acuna is playing time. While it is obviously a factor, especially since the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year missed a large chunk of action, it's more apropos with Bregman since he missed just five games last season so it's unlikely he plays more. Not to mention, Bregman has minor elbow surgery in January, though it's not supposed to affect his Opening Day eligibility. Still, when accounting for all plausible scenarios, there's very few in which he exceeds 2018's 705 plate appearances, with far more finishing below. Therefore, barring improving, which is of course a possibility, the first thing Bregman needs to do to match last year is miss only a handful of games.

Since my 2019 expectation for Bregman isn't as rosy as his 2018 campaign, there are areas I see a decline: power and batting average. With Acuna, I didn't have much of a problem overriding my initial homer expectation since the adjustment still baked in some regression. This isn't the case with Bregman. Plus, Statcast data isn't as generous to Bregman. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are above average, but fall well short of those displayed by Acuna. I like Bregman's contact rate and fly ball lean. Minute Maid park continues to embellish righthanded power by around 10 percent. I just have my doubts he can maintain the modest gains in HR/FB enjoyed last season. Keep in mind my projection is for 27 long balls, not too far below 30.

The area I differ more is batting average and the resulting run production, to which homers also play a part. Here's where a latent park factor is influential. Minute Maid Park stealthily suppresses hits by 10 percent. Since homers are hits too, the exertion on batting average is around a seven percent decline, but still, that matters. In short, Bregman's batted ball profile is a bit above average, but when pulled down by his park, results in a .299 BABIP, right around league average as dictated by batted ball profile and park.

It's fair to note Bregman's adjusted BABIP to move him to the wheel is just six points, which is hardly anything – a seeing eye single and a Texas Leaguer falling in now and then. This speaks towards the scant difference in production between the end of the first and end of the second: three more homers, a bloop and a bleeder. That said, at least on paper, there are several players I rank higher than Bregman.

To be honest, it's not picking Bregman at the wheel that's causing me to cringe. As just demonstrated, there isn't much of a difference between 15th and 30th. However, the ADP only encompassed a handful of drafts, so we were looking at the latest trends. Bregman has cracked the Top 10 on many occasions. In fact, I was surprised the recent ADP was 15, I expected closer to 10. The difference between 8 or 10 and 15 is greater than 15 to 30.

Summing up, I'm going to adjust Acuna a bit, mostly a result of favorable Statcast data, even though it's over a small sample. He still won't be on any of my teams, but the difference now is more a matter of philosophy as I'm not willing to pay for the 90th> percentile when there are more established players on the board. On the other hand, I'm remaining obstinate with Bregman. I won't do it, but I can understand picking him at the wheel, especially since he has dual 3B/SS eligibility, which is worth something. I can't, however, invest in him as a Top 10 overall player. That entails improving over last season while managing to avoid the injury bug. Yes, it's possible. I'll pay for possible, just not in the first round.

Your team, your call.