Baseball Draft Kit: Gaining an Edge in the NFBC

For my money, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is the ultimate challenge in the fantasy baseball industry. The contests are run exceptionally well, pay out quickly and the live drafts are an absolute blast. The NFBC has many different contests with varying price points and league size, but the signature event is the 15-team Main Event that holds drafts in New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and online. It is the event that really put the NFBC on the map and attracts the best fantasy baseball players in the country. Trying to win your league is a true challenge, but the contest also features an overall prize that now sits at $150,000. In a contest that features so many great players, the question becomes, how do you find those small edges to win your league and compete for the big prize?

The biggest development in the last 10 years that has altered the landscape of the competition across season-long fantasy sports is the exponential increase in the amount of great information available. There used to be some really good sources and some that were not so good and it made finding good information a real skill. Now, there is a plethora of really smart baseball websites to read articles and find advanced stats on, and also a lot of really smart fantasy players that have a forum to talk baseball, whether on Twitter or on podcasts. This glut of good information has made finding those advantages to win your league tougher, but they still exist.

DRAFTING SMARTER AND USING ADP CORRECTLY

The biggest tool that has affected fantasy drafts is the growth of easily available and useable average draft position (ADP) lists. I can remember compiling ADPs myself, built among the drafts I participated in during the offseason as those were still better than the available ADPs that were built from people doing mock drafts. But now, the NFBC ADP containing data from hundreds of paid drafts is readily available and searchable by date and/or type of draft. I still maintain a great drafter will out-draft a bad one every day no matter what data is out there, but the access to this data certainly makes the margin smaller.

The biggest part of drafting smarter to me comes from not deciding which players will be good (we all do that anyway), but in piecing together how the player pool comes together each particular season. I obviously spend time ranking and projecting players and finding targets and fades during my prep, but the key with drafting smarter is finding pockets in the draft. I always put together my own personal rankings by position each offseason as it allows to me to identify where those pockets lie.

By ranking by position and also referencing ADP, I am able to notice not only where certain positions fall off, but also where there may be groups of players later in a draft that I like at their current prices. For example, if I realize there are six middle infielders in the back half of the draft that I consider really good buys, that can greatly help me when I am on the clock deciding between a couple of players in the eighth round as I know what positions I am happy grabbing later on. This is epecially important with starting pitchers as every season, I end up with a certain tier of pitchers that I don't like at all and I know not only that I need to focus on getting pitchers before that tier, but also to focus my prep on the hitters in those rounds.

The search for pockets also extends to categories. Saves is an obvious example as you can use ADP and your rankings to figure out when you need to jump for closers, but beware in the NFBC Main Event as those closer runs occur quicker than the earlier drafts and you will need to adjust to that, something I failed to do last year and it stung me. I also locate pockets of power and speed later in the draft, which helps me know whether I can wait on a category or if I need to make sure to jump on a category no matter what in the first 10 rounds of the draft. These pockets are different every year, but have helped me tremendously in trying to build the puzzle of my draft.

STRIVE FOR BALANCE EARLY, ATTACK CATEGORIES LATE

Where the NFBC varies most from your typical fantasy league is in the absolute need for balance, both because there are overall prizes and it is nearly impossible to tank a category and compete in the overall and the fact that there is no trading allowed. I am not a fan of trying to hit any sort of specific target numbers during a draft as so much changes during the year. However, I do set a ballpark target number for each category and input my players as I am drafting to make sure I am keeping a rough idea of where I stand during the draft. If I am 10 steals short at the end, who cares, but if I am 60 steals short, then I am very likely going to have an issue filling that gap all year long. By keeping track during the draft (and knowing where to locate categories in different areas of the draft), I make sure to always know if I am significantly lacking something at any point and can adjust on the fly.

For the first six weeks of the season, I am playing my best lineup each period, but at some point, in mid-May, I will take an initial deeper look at the standings to see if there are any categories I am severely lacking in and whether that is due to slow starts for players I counted on in those areas or if I have a real roster-construction issue or maybe an injury has altered my perceived balance. I will make sure to place special attention to that category when doing FAAB, but that early I am hoping to just make some small tweaks to try and ride my way back to strong balance.

Around Aug. 1, I sit down and take a deep dive into the standings and decide how I am going to attack the rest of the season. If I am in overall contention and know I need to maintain balance while improving in some spots, I will make sure to do so, but I am very realistic at this point of the season about my overall chances, and if not in the mix there, I take a very hard look at my league and figure out how I am going to gain points or protect my lead. As opposed to the overall, I can win a league without balance and this deep dive could reveal that a category can't be rescued by this point and I am better off maintaining the few points I have there, rather than hurting the rest of my categories in a fruitless attempt to gain a couple of points.

I am looking to strongly attack the categories I can gain in and shift focus away from the ones where there is not likely to be lot ton of movement. I have seen several leagues won or lost because teams are just playing their "best" lineup down the stretch rather than fully focusing on where exactly points can be gained or lost. There are often categories so bunched up that a lineup tweak or freeagent addition in the last three weeks can make the difference while the guy with a 10-save lead keeps tossing three closers out there every week.

OUTWORK EVERYONE IN-SEASON

Clearly, drafting well is important, but I strongly believe hard work in-season is what separates the good teams in the standings come October. You may just think this is just free-agent bidding, but there is a lot more to it than that, especially in the NFBC as you are allowed to make switches on offense on Fridays. The NFBC has a short bench with only seven spots (23 starters), so how you structure that bench is quite important. I like to carry three playable hitters, ideally one outfielder, one middle infielder and one corner infielder (key note: good multi-position guys are pure gold) to try and take advantage of the half-weeks.

With all my non-obvious players on offense, I make sure to chart exactly where they play their games each half-week, which starting pitchers they are scheduled to face (especially key with platoon players) and also, what their status is for the first game of the week. With how good lineup reporting is now, you have to take advantage of knowing whether fringe players are starting or not on Monday or Friday before those respective deadlines. I also want a minimum of two healthy starting pitchers on my bench. Finding nine pitchers you like every week is hard enough without a couple of extra options and I never want to be forced into a terrible matchup because I don't have enough choices to pick from on Monday morning.

Free-agent bidding is clearly a huge factor in your in-season performance too. Part of the reason I enjoy the 15-team format is that I believe it has the perfect depth of the free-agent pool. It isn't so thin like an AL- or NL-only league where you are just looking for any player with a pulse, but it also takes more craft than a 10- or 12-teamer where you can always find a decent replacement pretty easily at most positions. My initial sweep of the free-agent pool is looking for significant contributors (rookie callups, surging pitchers, new closers), but those are usually obvious week-to-week.

Finding the edge for me in free agency comes from the next level, and that next level is a focus on the upcoming two weeks. I am looking deeper for guys with upcoming series in great hitter parks, platoon guys who have a nice streak of starters that throw from the correct side or someone filling in short term for an injury. These are playable guys that I can use in the next four half-periods to react to injuries or bad matchups or something like my American League DH having to play games in a National League park. The key is to have options on your bench that are currently useable as there will always be situations during the year where you will end up slotting them into your lineup. It sounds cliché, but every counting stat really does matter, as I can attest as my Main Event league in
2018 came down to one mere strikeout.

Except for extreme cases, I am strongly against stashing prospects on your bench. They
clog up a spot, it is hard to know when they will get promoted and with young players, there is no guarantee they contribute when they do get the call. Injuries should also be treated very harshly when considering drops. This may sting you a few times, but with so many injuries that linger, I lean heavily to being aggressive with injury drops. You clearly aren't dropping Mike Trout because he is out six weeks, but if a middle rounder is out four-to-six weeks, I tend to make the cut and move on and grab someone I can use at the moment.

This article appears in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.