This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
The premise for bold predictions remains the same: they need to be grounded in some form of reality. When I am looking at the numbers behind bold predictions, I am looking at something that is the 10 percent area of likely outcomes for that batter or pitcher. They've either had to do the performance before, or have the hidden metrics in their profile that point to something good or bad about to come. I'm not going out there predicting an MVP award for Russell Martin, but you're damn right I did a victory lap when Christian Yelich won the MVP last year because that was my prediction. In fact, I won a prediction contest against 120 other national baseball writers hosted by Mark Simon of ESPN on the strength of being the only person that had Yelich on his pre-season MVP ballot, and I picked him first. That choice pushed me over the top for the victory.
The ultimate goal of these predictions is to get you to re-think your own evaluation of these players. I'm looking for outcomes that are outside the mainstream predictions. It is why I did not put Nick Pivetta down as a sleeper for 2019, because he is wide awake on the market. It is why I went the other way with Nate Eovaldi because everyone else loves