NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we are again using grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic 'player grade' column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Ronald Acuna would have been an 'A' grade player last year - that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Sandy AlcantaraMIASPENo$0$3
Chad BettisCOLSPENo$0$3
Dakota HudsonSTLSPD$0$1$5
Eric LauerSDSPC$1$5$9
Pablo LopezMIASPC$2$7$11
Nick MargeviciusSDSPENoNo$3
Chris PaddackSDSPB$3$9$14
Julio UriasLADSPB$2$7$11
Bryse WilsonATLSP

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we are again using grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic 'player grade' column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Ronald Acuna would have been an 'A' grade player last year - that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Sandy AlcantaraMIASPENo$0$3
Chad BettisCOLSPENo$0$3
Dakota HudsonSTLSPD$0$1$5
Eric LauerSDSPC$1$5$9
Pablo LopezMIASPC$2$7$11
Nick MargeviciusSDSPENoNo$3
Chris PaddackSDSPB$3$9$14
Julio UriasLADSPB$2$7$11
Bryse WilsonATLSPD$0$1$3
David HernandezCINRPENoNo$2
Greg HollandARIRPB$7$17$27
Alex AvilaARICENoNo$2
Pete AlonsoNYM1BB$8$16$24
Garrett HampsonCOL2BC$6$12$18
Ryan McMahonCOL2BC$6$12$18
Enrique HernandezLAD2BC$3$9$14
David BoteCHC3BENoNo$2
Jose IglesiasCINSSENo$0$3
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDSSB$5$11$16
Albert AlmoraCHCOFDNo$0$3
Garrett CooperMIAOFENoNo$3
Jarrod DysonARIOFD$0$2$5
Connor JoeSFOFENoNo$3
Juan LagaresNYMOFENoNo$2
Michael ReedSFOFENoNo$3
Scott ScheblerCINOFC$2$7$11

STARTING PITCHER

Sandy Alcantara, Marlins: With Dan Straily released and Wei-Yin Chen headed for the bullpen, Alcantara has won a rotation spot in Miami. The prize of the Marcell Ozuna trade, Alcantara has a fairly common profile for a pitching prospect: a big fastball, some promising secondaries and shaky command. In 42.1 innings at the big-league level, the 23-year-old has an ugly 15.7 percent walk rate and a mediocre 21.6 percent strikeout rate. He's probably still a few years away from putting things together as a starter (if he can avoid considerable relief risk), but he's worth a look in deep leagues in case he figures things out sooner than expected, especially with his pitcher-friendly home park helping to raise his floor. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3

Chad Bettis, Rockies: Bettis has officially won the Rockies' fifth starter job, so he's worth a look at least in deeper formats. As a pitcher who calls Coors Field home, Bettis has to be used judiciously, and even in his outings in pitcher-friendly parks he won't be a particularly enticing option. He owns a career 5.01 ERA and an unimpressive 16.4 percent strikeout rate. If there's reason for optimism, it lies in his increased velocity: his fastball sat at 92.3 mph in spring training, higher than it had been in any month since 2016 and prior to the start of his recent battles with testicular cancer. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3

Dakota Hudson, Cardinals: Hudson won an Opening Day rotation spot, so he's worth a look at least in deep leagues. The question for him is whether his 2.63 ERA in his 27.1-inning debut last season is more indicative of who he is than his 19:18 K:BB. He could always be someone who beats his peripherals due to his high groundball rate, which sat at 60.8 percent in the majors last season and has never fell below 57.1 percent in the minors. His minor-league strikeout rates don't give much reason for optimism, but his walk rates have always sat around league average, making last season's 15.3 percent walk rate look like a clear outlier. He looks like a legitimate back-end starter, but it would be a surprise to see him become something more. 12 team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5

Eric Lauer, Padres: It's not often an Opening Day starter is generally available on the waiver wire, but the relatively unheralded Lauer got the ball for the opener and threw six scoreless innings against the Giants. There are certainly reasons why there hasn't been much hype for the 23-year-old lefty. He recorded an unimpressive 4.34 ERA in his 23-start debut, with below-average peripherals across the board - 19.8 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, 37.6 percent groundball rate - and his fastball averaged a modest 91.2 mph and none of his pitches graded out particularly well. Still, his status as the Opening Day starter suggests his rotation spot should be relatively safe, and his pitcher-friendly home park and relatively weak division means he's worth keeping around even if he's not worth starting every week. 12 team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9

Pablo Lopez, Marlins: Lopez had some sleeper buzz this spring due to his increased velocity and impressive Grapefruit League stats, including a 0.90 ERA and a 16:1 K:BB. He allowed three runs in 5.1 innings in his first start of the year Saturday against the Rockies, but he also struck out seven while walking just one. His team may not put himself in position to win too often, but he'll at least have a pitcher-friendly home park to keep his ratios in check. The 23-year-old has a very real chance to take a step forward this season and become a legitimate mid-rotation starter in his sophomore season. 12 team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Nick Margevicius, Padres: A pair of interesting prospects in Logan Allen and Cal Quantrill appeared to be battling for the Padres' fifth starter job, but in the end the role went to Margevicius, a relatively unheralded arm who had never pitched above High-A. He exceeded all reasonable expectations in his big-league debut Saturday against the Giants, striking out five in five innings while allowing just one run and three hits. There's no guarantee he remains on the roster, but he's done enough to at least earn another look soon. His skills are legitimate, as he owns a career 3.00 ERA, a 26.0 percent strikeout rate and a 3.0 percent walk rate over his two-year minor-league career. Owners in NL-only leagues should be interested, and those in shallower formats should at least keep an eye on him to see if he's expected to remain on the roster. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Chris Paddack, Padres: Paddack was officially announced as a member of the Padres' starting rotation, which should send his already growing hype through the roof. Unfortunately, this column is being written prior to Paddack's start Sunday, but his inclusion here is a reminder to bid big on him even if his debut goes unexpectedly poorly. Granted, he has just seven starts above High-A, but his numbers across three minor-league seasons are absurd: a 1.82 ERA backed up 35.3 percent strikeout rate and a 2.4 percent walk rate. He can fall off very far from those numbers and still be an above-average arm. Don't expect him to get anywhere near 30 starts, as he made a career-high 17 last season. But he has a very good shot to be at minimum a capable starter whenever he takes the mound, with the potential for a Rookie-of-the-Year-level caliber campaign. 12 team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14

Julio Urias, Dodgers: Urias was always going to be a strong bet to give the Dodgers some good innings whenever he was eventually called upon. With Clayton Kershaw (shoulder) and Rich Hill (knee) opening the year on the injured list, Urias has been called upon now, so he needs to be owned now. Injuries have derailed his last two seasons, but the talent which led him to a 3.38 ERA in his age-19 season back in 2016 is still there. Don't expect a heavy workload, but expect the young lefty to be startable in nearly every matchup for as long as he remains in the rotation. 12 team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Bryse Wilson, Braves: Not only did Wilson emerge from a crop of exciting young pitchers to win an Opening Day rotation spot, he got the ball in the second game of the season against the Phillies and indicated he's likely to stick around after Mike Foltynewicz (elbow) and Kevin Gausman (shoulder) return from the injured list. He was knocked around in that game by allowing four runs in just 3.1 innings, but his talent remains despite one poor performance. The 21-year-old has mid-90s heat and a potentially above-average slider and changeup. He failed to impress in a seven-inning big-league cameo last season but had a 3.44 ERA backed up by a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.8 percent walk rate across the three highest levels of the minors. He's an intriguing arm for as long as he can stay ahead of the group of similarly interesting options nipping at his heels in the minors, though another poor start or two will see him head back to the minors. 12 team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $3

RELIEF PITCHER

David Hernandez, Reds: The Reds warned that Raisel Iglesias wouldn't be used as a traditional closer, and it took just one game for that warning to come true. Iglesias pitched a scoreless eighth on Opening Day but was removed with one out in the ninth, first in favor of Amir Garrett who then gave way to David Hernandez. The play could have been for Iglesias to get a six-out save, but he walked two of the first three hitters in the ninth. It will take more than a game to sort out who all is in the Reds' committee, but right now all we can say for sure is that Hernandez will be part of it. The 33-year-old compiled a 2.53 ERA and a 25.6 percent strikeout rate last season, meaning he isn't a total zero when not closing, but fantasy owners even in deep leagues will likely only be happy with him if he happens to finish with a double-digit save total. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

Greg Holland, Diamondbacks: To have a team's officially-announced closer be widely unowned on Opening Day requires a combination of factors. The team has to keep coy about their closer plans throughout spring training, and a different pitcher has to be commonly seen as the obvious favorite. Both of those are true in Holland's case, as the veteran recorded a 4.66 ERA last season and battled diminished velocity in camp while Archie Bradley was said to be the frontrunner early in the offseason. The factors that made Holland an unlikely candidate originally would seem to make him unlikely to keep the job all season, but it's worth noting Fernando Rodney kept his job all season in 2017 despite a 4.23 ERA, while Brad Boxberger kept the job for most of last year despite a 4.39 mark. Even a clearly past-his-prime Holland has a legitimate shot to close all year in Arizona, a very rare commodity on the waiver wire. 12 team Mixed: $7; 15-team Mixed: $17; 12-team NL: $27

CATCHER

Alex Avila, Diamondbacks: No catcher is likely to emerge from the Diamondbacks' trio and become a significant asset, but if any of them can carve out a decent role, he'd become viable in deep, two-catcher formats simply for his playing time. Before the season started, Carson Kelly seemed the one most likely to be that guy. Through three games, however, Kelly hasn't started while Avila has started two in a row and has registered one home run. The 32-year-old endured a terrible 2018 campaign, hitting .165/.299/.304, but his numbers in 2017 were quite good, as he hit .264/.387/.447. Playing regularly and finishing roughly halfway between those two batting lines would make him a viable option. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

FIRST BASE

Pete Alonso, Mets: Not only did Alonso win an Opening Day roster spot, he's also secured the second spot in the Mets' improved lineup, hitting behind Brandon Nimmo and ahead of Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto. The 24-year-old owns a career .290/.381/.560 minor-league slash line and is already off to a 4-for-8 start with two doubles. With no real threats to his playing time, he could be at least a solid mid-tier first baseman this season. He's may only be available in shallower leagues that drafted early, but he should be a top target in leagues where he's still available. 12 team Mixed: $8; 15-team Mixed: $16; 12-team NL: $24

SECOND BASE

Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon, Rockies: The pair opened the season in a platoon, with the lefty McMahon set to receive the majority of starts. Daniel Murphy fractured his finger while making a defensive play Friday, opening up at least temporary playing time for both of them. McMahon has struggled in limited big-league action prior to this season but hit .290 with 11 homers in 55 games for Triple-A Albuquerque last year. He's reached base in half of his 12 plate appearances so far this season. Hampson has more of a classic middle-infield profile, making solid contact and stealing tons of bases. He swiped 36 bags in 110 minor-league games last year and recorded 51 steals in 127 games the season before, all while keeping his batting average above .300 at every step of the ladder. 12 team Mixed: $6; 15-team Mixed: $12; 12-team NL: $18

Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers: The Dodgers will continue to utilize their depth, but Hernandez could be in line for a bigger role than he's used to this season. He's reportedly going to start most games at second base and has done so in two of the Dodgers' first three games, hitting a pair of homers. The 27-year-old wasn't a particularly coveted asset throughout draft season, possibly because he's never come close to receiving 500 plate appearances. He's coming off a season in which he hit .256 with 21 homers and could improve on his counting stats with increased playing time. 25 homers, which would have ranked second among all second basemen last season, seems to be a reasonable target. 12 team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14

THIRD BASE

David Bote, Cubs: Addison Russell's month-long suspension has opened up more at-bats on the north side of Chicago, and Bote has been the primary beneficiary so far by starting each of the first two games. He's gotten the call against both a righty and a lefty, starting at both second and third base. The 25-year-old isn't a particularly exciting option, but he can get the job done for owners in deep leagues if he's in the lineup on a regular basis. In 210 plate appearances in his debut campaign last year, Bote hit .239 with six homers and three steals. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

SHORTSTOP

Jose Iglesias, Reds: Iglesias remains safe to ignore in shallower formats, as he hasn't hit above .270 since 2015 and has never managed more than six homers in a season. However, he suddenly has deep-league relevance with Scooter Gennett out 8-to-12 weeks with a groin injury. He should have close to an everyday role at shortstop in an improved lineup and in a hitters' park. He also stole a career-high 15 bases last season in just 125 games. Two or three months of a handful of steals with an acceptable batting average is worth at least a middle infield spot in deeper formats. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: Fans hardly would have screamed 'service-time manipulation' had Tatis opened the season in the minors, as he's still just 20 years old and had yet to play above Double-A. The Padres decided he was ready to go right away, so we'll all get to see the young phenom from the start of the season. It's always fun to see a top prospect debut, but there are reasons to be skeptical about his fantasy value as a rookie. Publicly-available projection systems peg him to hit around .235 with 10-15 steals and homers. The steals and homers could be pushed up a bit with playing time, but likely not past the high teens. Assuming those models are accurate, we're looking at a player who should produce numbers somewhere between Dansby Swanson's 2018 and Marcus Semien's 2018 - a viable deep-league option at least, but not a player anyone would scramble to add. He's still worth a sizable bid just in case he blows past his projections (not impossible to envision for a player with his talent), but don't assume he's suddenly going to be a fantasy star from day one. 12 team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16

OUTFIELD

Albert Almora, Cubs: With Ian Happ sent to the minors following a terrible spring, Almora should see an expanded role in center field for the Cubs. He offers very little power or speed, with just 16 homers and two steals in 333 career games. But he's hit for a .289 average, making him a valuable enough piece for the end of a roster - especially with increased playing time. He led off on Opening Day with a lefty on the mound, but was moved back to the ninth spot against a righty Saturday. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $3

Garrett Cooper, Marlins: Cooper doesn't have much of a track record, but he's a name worth knowing in deeper leagues after starting both of the Marlins' first two games. He's hit just .256 with no homers or steals in 29 career big-league games, but owns a .330/.392/.564 slash line in 500 Triple-A plate appearances. His team context and home park work against an already mediocre profile. But in leagues deep enough where every true starter is worth rostering, Cooper seems to fit the bill so far. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Jarrod Dyson, Diamondbacks: Dyson was largely ignored in draft season due to what was presumed to be a bench role. With Steven Souza out for the year due to knee surgery, Dyson suddenly finds himself in a platoon role. He's started both of the Diamondbacks' games against righties, pushing Ketel Marte back to second base at the expense of Wilmer Flores. If Dyson repeats his .189/.282/.257 line from last season, he won't remain in the job for long. If he's up near his career .257/.321/.344 mark in a semi-regular role, he'll get the chance to show off his wheels and provide a cheap bonus in the steals category. 12 team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $5

Connor Joe, Giants: A Rule 5 pick by the Reds, Joe was dealt to the Giants one week before Opening Day. He'll have to remain on the 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the Dodgers, but it looks as though the Giants intend to do far more than that by starting him three straight games in left field. He wasn't much more than a fringe prospect, but he did hit .299/.408/.527 across the two highest levels of the Dodgers' system last year. As long as the Giants keep him in the lineup on a regular basis, he's worth a look from deep-league owners - although expectations shouldn't be particularly high. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Juan Lagares, Mets: Lagares got the start in center field on Opening Day, indicating he's ahead of the potentially more interesting Keon Broxton in the pecking order. Lagares hit .339 in 64 plate appearances last season before being shut down for toe surgery. The sample is very small but offers at least a glimmer of hope, though his .260 career batting average remains the more relevant number. Playing time may be limited once Todd Frazier (oblique) or Jed Lowrie (knee) return and push Jeff McNeil to the outfield, but Lagares could be an acceptable temporary fill-in if given regular at-bats. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2

Michael Reed, Giants: Reed started the first two games of the season in right field after coming over in a trade from the Twins just five days prior to Opening Day. He was never a particularly highly-rated prospect, though he did record a .342/.453/.520 line across the two highest levels of the Braves' system last year. Team context and a tough home park further dent his profile, but he's worth a look in deep leagues as long as he retains a starting spot. 12 team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Scott Schebler, Reds: Schebler may have the Reds' center field job locked down for a bit longer than the team had anticipated, as Nick Senzel will have to recover from an ankle sprain serious enough to keep him in a walking boot for up to two weeks before he's able to get back to working on his defense at the Triple-A level. Schebler boasts a 30-homer season on his resume and should get the chance to show that power again for at least a few weeks. If he impresses, he could wind up with something larger than a fourth-outfield role once Senzel is ready to go, keeping him viable in deeper formats for the rest of the season. 12 team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Halterman
Erik Halterman is the Features Editor for RotoWire. He also co-hosts RotoWire Fantasy Baseball on SiriusXM's MLB Network Radio.
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