Farm Futures: This Week's Risers

I have been chipping away at updating the top 400, and wanted to highlight some players in the 85-150 range who have climbed the rankings due to demonstrating potential skills growth early in the year. All of these players should be rostered in serious dynasty leagues, so this may not be very actionable for some of you, but I will be continuing to update the top 400 over the rest of the week and into next week, so keep an eye on the arrows for big risers who may still be out there in RDI-sized dynasty leagues.

Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants

The selling point when the Giants selected Ramos with the No. 17 pick in the 2017 draft was that he had mammoth raw power and had a shot to stick in center field. He has less of a chance to stick in center field now, although that's his current position, but the power that was his calling card as an amateur has really blossomed this year in the California League. Ramos showed he could hit for power as a 17-year-old in the AZL after he was drafted, but he is doing things this year to better stabilize that power that he did not do in past seasons.

Last year's adjustment was to use the whole field and cut down on strikeouts. This year's adjustment seems to be the implementation of a more advantageous launch angle while exhibiting more patience, all while maintaining his contact and spray chart gains from 2018. He is becoming more than just a major power threat. He is becoming a pure hitter. I would strongly consider buying high.

Tirso Ornelas, OF, Padres

The youngest hitter at High-A, Ornelas is handling the level just fine in the early going. It's tricky to determine what the end result will be when Ornelas reaches the majors, but he has a very high ceiling in OBP, AVG and HR, so he should be appealing in all formats. Given his age (he turned 19 on March 11), we should not be expecting his power breakout until 2020 or 2021, but at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, power will absolutely be a big part of his game. The impressive thing about Ornelas this year is that he is still walking a ton (15.1 BB%), despite the bump in competition, using the whole field -- something he has done since he was 17 in rookie ball -- and operating with a career-best 22.9 percent line drive rate.

Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

As I said in Howard's preseason outlook, "he did not start touching 100 mph until late in (2018), so his stock hasn't really blown up yet, but if he comes out pumping that type of gas with solid command early in 2019, look out."

I haven't seen any reports of him touching 100 mph this year, but there have been several reports of him hitting 99 mph. He has 30 strikeouts through 20 innings in four starts, but the fact that he has only issued four walks over that span is perhaps even more impressive, as his shaky strike-throwing ability is what held him back in past seasons. Armed with a plus slider, average curveball and average changeup, Howard has No. 2 starter upside, and should get a bump to Double-A sometime in May or June if he continues to throw strikes.

Kyle Isbel, OF, Royals

Unfortunately Isbel's eye-popping start to the season has been put on hold, as he is on the 7-day injured list after taking a ball off the face while playing the field. It is unclear how serious his injury is. However, prior to going down, he could do no wrong at the plate in his first exposure to High-A pitching. Coming into the year, we were banking on his plus speed and aggressiveness on the bases equating to 20-plus-steal seasons in the majors. That is still very much in play, but he is changing the narrative about his upside as a hitter.

He is already 22 years old, so hopefully he can return from this injury in short order and force a promotion to Double-A, where his performance would carry more weight. For now, he has a big up arrow next to his name, profiling as a potential leadoff hitter who contributes across the board.

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles

Rodriguez has struck out 28 of the 63 batters he has faced (44.4 K%) this year at Low-A, and appears to be back to being the pitcher he was as an amateur before seeing a slight velocity dip after his senior season as a prep pitcher in Texas. He gives me Forrest Whitley vibes, in part because he is a 6-foot-5 Texan (Whitley is 6-foot-7) who went off the board in the middle of the first round, and in part because he had two quality breaking balls as an amateur. His slider and curveball were his top offspeed pitches when he signed, but his changeup seems to have passed his curveball in the hierarchy. All three pitches play well off his heavy 93-94 mph heater. The hope is that he adds a tick of velocity in the coming years so that he can sit in the mid-90s. Rodriguez has a long way to go to have the kind of realistic ace upside that Whitley does, but he is on the right track.

Anderson Tejeda, SS, Rangers

While this is a repeat tour of the Carolina League for Tejeda, he is still 20 years old and was 17 percent better than league average last year, so I expect this to be a four- or five-week tuneup before getting a real test with an assignment to Double-A. Tejeda has all the tools to stick at shortstop, and is an above-average runner with plus raw power. Coming into the year, his hit tool was seen as the lesser of the five tools (hit, run, power, field, arm) scouts grade, but he is striking out in 22 percent of his plate appearances thus far, which is easily his best mark above rookie ball. Tejeda is also sporting a comically low 17.6 percent groundball rate, which will inevitably tick up, but which also serves as evidence that he is really focused on lifting the ball. He has made tangible improvements every year, which is a great sign. I doubt he will have a seamless transition against Double-A pitching, but it's easy to bet on him eventually making the necessary adjustments, given his age and track record. He has not played in the last couple games for the Wood Ducks, so he is likely dealing with a minor injury.

Ryan Weathers, LHP, Padres

I undersold Weathers on draft day, thinking the Padres selected him with the seventh overall pick in an effort to save money (they ended up paying full price), and undersold him this offseason, mistakenly capping his upside at a No. 3 starter. Not only does he locate his plus fastballs (two-seamer and four-seamer) with ease, but his curveball and changeup flash plus more often than I was expecting. Throw in the fact that he has logged elite groundball rates (63.5 GB% at Low-A) at every stop, and he begins to look like a future No. 2 starter.

Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins

It's very, very early, but here's what I'm tracking with Harrison:

The rest of the performance all hinges on this. A hitter who strikes out almost 37 percent of the time at Double-A needs to significantly improve in that area to profile as someone who will hit better than .220 against big-league pitching. A hitter who strikes out about 30 percent of the time at Triple-A, on the other hand, is not a lost cause. It's still a danger zone, but Harrison is now striking out at a clip I can live with, given the rest of his tools. There are rumors that he changed his swing/approach last year, which could be the culprit for his unpalatable strikeout rate. He has monster raw power, plus speed and an 80-grade body. We still need more data to feel comfortable about these improvements to his approach being legitimate, and I hope the Marlins don't rush him up to the majors, as his initial struggles against MLB pitching could be very significant. However, if Harrison can maintain this strikeout rate all season, or even improve upon his current rates, we could be looking at an everyday player who hits enough to challenge for 30/30 seasons in his peak years.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates

I just wanted to touch on Reynolds because I was way too low on him before the season -- I actually scooped him up in RDI and TDGX prior to his promotion, so his ascension up the top 400 is less related to his promotion and more related to the reason the Pirates felt he had earned a promotion: he was finally hitting for notable power. Yes, the Triple-A baseball is juiced, but so is the MLB baseball. 

Even when factoring in that he was old for most of his minor-league levels, a hitter who is that consistently excellent in the batting-average department and consistently at least 22 percent better than his league's average hitter despite a lack of power, needs to be taken more seriously than he was before the year. Starling Marte (abdomen) and Corey Dickerson (shoulder) should be back at some point in May, so Reynolds may only be up in the majors for a couple more weeks. However, he should be considered a long-term hold in dynasty leagues even if he gets sent down. He left Tuesday's game with quad discomfort, so hopefully it's just a minor injury and he can get back in time to make a case for lengthy stay in the majors.