This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An eight-game slate awaits Saturday evening, and weather seems relatively stable, with only Chicago-New York being a potential threat as of submission time.
Pitching Overview
Walker Buehler ($11,000) headlines and is in a great groove. He's been worth 40-plus FanDuel points (FDP) in six of seven and seven of 10. His opponent in the Cubs fans only 22.7 percent of the time against righties while ranking fifth with a .338 wOBA. That may limit Buehler's upside, but there's no reason to think an implosion is coming. He's as stable as they come.
Jake Odorizzi ($10,000) follows, and if Buehler is grooving, then Odorizzi is jamming to a different beat. He's allowed four total runs in his last eight starts, spanning 47.2 innings, and three of those runs came in one outing. A matchup with a Kansas City side that fans only 22.9 percent of the time doesn't ooze upside, but Odorizzi appears equally as stable as Buehler at a reduced price, and that's his floor in a highly winnable contest.
Mike Minor ($9,500) is the top southpaw on the docket, and his renaissance has been nothing short of remarkable. Cincinnati fans only 20.1 percent of the time, but has only a .307 wOBA and .144 ISO against lefties. Minor has been worth less than 21 FDP only twice all season, and if you can get past the name-current form mix, he's the preferred play on this slate for stability and savings.
Noah Syndergaard ($9,000) and Aaron Nola ($8,800) round out your "name" pitchers, and both present as GPP options over cash targets. Sydergaard's Ks are down, but he's been worth 21 or more FDP in eight straight, three times flashing for 46 or more. Nola has allowed three or more runs in four straight and five of six, but has still been worth 31 or more FDP four times in that stretch. Clear risk-reward in Suntrust Park, where the ball seems to be flying out of late.
Frankie Montas ($8,700) is the last of the top-tier arms price wise. Seattle has been in a funk since the early parts of the season but has a moderate .328 wOBA against righties, ranking 13th, while fanning 24.5 percent of the time. Montas seems stable, however, having gone for 32 or more FDP in eight of his last 10 starts, while three times topping 50, giving him cash stability and GPP upside.
The arms really fall off after Montas, with German Marquez ($7,000) the next in line price wise. He's obviously avoidable despite not being terrible at Coors Field. None of the sub 7k arms really interest me, with Tanner Roark ($6,600) and Yu Darvish ($6,900) likely being the "best" options, but both have less than ideal matchups. Sean Newcomb ($6,500) has been terrific in relief, but likely isn't worth more than a dart throw in GPPs, for reasons I'll note further below.
Key Chalk/Value
As I always start this section, the Rockies are playing at home and facing a lefty. Poor Eric Lauer ($6,300), who should be targeted against wherever affordable. Nolan Arenado ($4,800) has missed consecutive games, but if he returns, he'd be an ideal option despite the price. Otherwise, deploy Trevor Story ($4,700) with confidence, while Brendan Rodgers ($3,000) and Ian Desmond ($3,600) shouldn't be ignored, and David Dahl ($3,700) looks priced far too low as a result of a LvL matchup. Simply put, he's surging.
The ball has been flying out of Suntrust Park during the Braves' current homestand, five games and counting. Atlanta has launched 13 homers in that span and given up seven. Neither pitcher here has been victimized by the long ball frequently, and both actually have a fly ball rate at 38.4 percent or less. Still, a few bats on both sides of the lineup make sense. Rhys Hoskins ($4,200) went yard Friday and has the best stats against lefties, following by Jean Segura ($3,300), whose .414 wOBA and .314 ISO work very well at this price and position. Freddie Freeman ($4,400) continued his power barrage Friday, while Ozzie Albies ($3,500) has been worth double-digit points in seven of eight.
Minnesota figures to be a popular choice for bats as well against Glenn Sparkman ($5,500). The obviousness of this matchup has them landing here rather in the stacks section, but as many shares as possible are advisable. Jorge Polanco ($4,100) leads a plethora of viable options with a .430 wOBA and 172 wRC+ against righties, but Max Kepler ($3,900), Mitch Garver ($3,400) and Miguel Sano ($3,600) all are in play with ISOs north of .297.
Stacks
Yankees vs. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)
Didi Gregorius (SS - $3,400), Gary Sanchez (C - $4,100), Luke Voit (1B - $3,900)
Lopez has been incredibly inconsistent, fanning eight while allowing one run in his last start, but allowing 19 runs combined over his previous three starts, spanning just 13.1 frames. He's allowing a .385 wOBA to lefties and a.377 wOBA to righties, so all Yankees are on the table. Gregorius has been very solid since returning to action, and his price hasn't caught up to his production, owning a .419 wOBA in his first 17 at bats against righties. Sanchez isn't in terrific form but is always a threat for a long ball (.376 ISO), something Lopez gives up 2.15 times per nine innings. Voit is in the same vain, bringing a .256 ISO to the table while having gone for 22 or more FDP in three of his last five.
Dodgers vs. Yu Darvish (Cubs)
Cody Bellinger (OF - $4,800), Joc Pederson (OF - $3,600), Max Muncy (1B - $3,700)
Darvish is allowing a .353 wOBA to lefties, surrendering one homer for every five hits allowed. As such, we'll stack lefty Dodger bats and expect some power production. Muncy has the worst splits of this group, checking in with a .374 wOBA, .250 ISO and 136 wRC+ against righties, showing just how good the Dodgers have been. Both Pederson and Bellinger carry ISOs of .340 or better while having strikeout rates of 18 percent or lower.
White Sox vs. Chad Green/Nestor Cortes (Yankees)
Yonder Alonso (1B - $2,600), James McCann (C - $2,800), Leury Garcia (OF - $3,000)
A game stack here wasn't my intention, but with the smaller slate, we end up with promising matchups for both sides, this one coming in at a great discount, opening up options elsewhere. Green is expected to open Saturday, but will give way to Cortes as the Yankees piece together this game on the hill. Confirming Cortes' usage will be key to this stack, as it's built around targeting his left-handed arm. Alonso has been surprisingly solid against same-handed arms, posting a team-best .396 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and .289 ISO. McCann matches Alonso with a 153 wRC+ and .396 wOBA while Garcia has a stable .364 wOBA from the leadoff spot. Jose Abreu ($3,900) is most certainly an option if you aren't looking to save, but obviously can't fit into a lineup with likely low owned Alonso and McCann.
