Mound Musings: The Trade Winds Are Gently Blowing

It's that time of year when uniforms (and fortunes) can change for quite a few pitchers. While not hurricane force, there has been a noticeable breeze blowing over the past few days. Teams often play a waiting game, hoping to land the best arm(s) available, but once a big name or two finds a new home, things can quickly pick up. Yes, the trade winds have already been blowing, albeit not with any major storm warnings yet, and it's again time to see who has gone where, what it means, and what other deals might be on the horizon. There is still time on the clock, so maybe we can speculate on who might still be in play. But, let's start by seeing how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved so far:

Andrew Cashner to Boston:

The first few moves of the trading season seem rather ho-hum at first glance, and Cashner landing with Boston certainly fits that description. However, it should be noted that he actually arrived with an ERA (3.83) that would be second to only David Price on the Red Sox staff. That's a serious indicator of the team's 2019 pitching woes. So far, the Red Sox have seemed reluctant to take the big plunge but that could change.

The 32-year-old Cashner was battered for six runs (five earned) in five innings in his Boston debut, while logging just two strikeouts. That's been his modus operandi for the past few seasons. Simply put, he doesn't miss many bats (just a 6.03 K/9) and he is too hittable, too often. He could improve a bit – at least he'll now face the Baltimore hitters instead of Boston's lineup – but his fantasy value is unlikely to make a huge jump. Boston is hoping Nathan Eovaldi will be the answer to their bullpen nightmare, and he could be a big boost, but they still need more pitching to make this season count.

Homer Bailey to Oakland:

This one is intriguing! Bailey was a frequent fantasy tease earlier in his career, providing stretches of tantalizing performances, mixed with equally disappointing outings. Then the injuries set in. He was in the trainer's room as often as he was on the mound, and his results suggest he wasn't fully healthy when pitching. He has logged 100-plus innings just once in the past five seasons so durability will always be a concern.

At age 33, he may actually be healthy, and the teasing has returned. He has compiled a lackluster 4.80 ERA – his best in recent history – with a 1.41 WHIP. Too many walks and too many home runs, but there have been flashes of the good Bailey, and there is the intrigue. The A's have a history of collecting forgotten talent and getting the most from them. Oakland is surprising just a handful of games behind the division-leading Astros, and in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Their two best starting pitchers, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, are out of the mix, so can Bailey provide a significant second half boost? He's a huge risk to be sure, but I hesitate to dismiss the possibility. And, don't be surprised if the A's bring in another quick turn reclamation project.

And now for some serious fun … speculation!

Our first stop is the beautiful city by the bay, San Francisco. Arguably two of the hottest commodities, starter Madison Bumgarner and closer Will Smith, currently pitch for the Giants. The team is actually playing better, but that probably won't endure, and even if it does, they won't catch the Dodgers, so deals involving these two are their best options. The good news is, with so many contenders being desperate, they should be able to bring in some top shelf talent. But, that makes it hard to predict landing spots. Mad Bum has a limited no trade clause in his contract, but things would likely be worked out if he sees a possible World Series ring in the bargain. I still think Atlanta could be a good fit for one or both (talk about blockbuster). The Braves' bullpen is a certified disaster area, so Smith, while still not a classic closer in my eyes, looks like an excellent fit, and the Braves have the depth in their system to meet the price.

 Next, let's make a stop in Cleveland. There has been a lot of chatter regarding whether the Indians will be sellers, buyers or somewhere in between. They are still marginally in the playoff hunt despite a season-long bout of injuries, which probably puts them in a position to stand pat unless they are overwhelmed with an offer. And, I think that might happen. Their biggest trading chip is Trevor Bauer, and I see what appears to be the perfect home for him. A southern California native, he could find San Diego very appealing (who wouldn't). The Padres have the deepest minor league talent pool in MLB so the sides match up. Bauer would immediately step in as the rotation leader, at an age where he would be in his prime as their young pitchers mature. And what a mentor he could be for those incredibly talented young arms. It's probably a longshot, but …

Moving on to Queens, New York, home of the Mets, I don't see a World Series being the end result of this, the 50th anniversary of the Miracle Mets. They brought in a lot of big name players hoping for a big season, but it never came together. Part of the plan was the anticipated performance of a very high profile starting rotation, but that, along with an overall bullpen collapse, has been problematic. They would like to move Zack Wheeler, but a shoulder injury, while supposedly minor, probably makes that a challenge. Enter Noah Syndergaard. A top-10 rotation talent in my humble opinion, he still has time remaining on his contract so the Mets aren't seriously compelled to move him, but a shrewd deal could bring them a huge return, and contenders have to be salivating at the possibility of adding him to their pitching staffs. I frequently talk about the "changes in latitudes" angle, and Thor is an ideal candidate to benefit from a move. If they can convince the Mets to pull the trigger, he could be the ultimate answer.

Finally, I want to look at one major buyer. The Houston Astros have all the pieces, almost. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are aces. But can just a pair of aces win the pot? Wade Miley is a respectable fourth, or better, fifth starter but he's currently their No.3. They have pretty much exhausted their internal options with no success, and the lack of competent back-of-the-rotation arms is putting a lot of stress on their very deep and solid bullpen. They desperately need at least one more starting pitcher to provide solid innings, and I think one top shelf arm could make them the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series. I don't see them bypassing that chance, and almost anyone they add probably enjoys a big fantasy boost.

It's still relatively early, so the possibilities are virtually endless:

At deadline for this article, there were still plenty of trade rumors circulating. One of the most prominent starting pitchers, Matthew Boyd, has been mentioned frequently as a possible target for several contenders. Toronto's Marcus Stroman and the D'Backs' Robbie Ray have both been linked to the Yankees, and even though the Reds are still theoretically in the hunt for a playoff spot, Tanner Roark has been talked about as an "under the radar" possibility. Besides the teams already mentioned, there are several more, most notably Philadelphia, Milwaukee and the Angels all need starting pitching, so this may be shaping up as a seller's market.

Moving on, bullpen arms are considered a bit more plentiful, and several other closers besides Smith are being talked about, including Brad Hand (Indians), Shane Greene (Tigers), Ken Giles (Toronto), Roenis Elias (Seattle), Mychal Givens (Baltimore) and Alex Colome (White Sox). I would also include Rangers' closer Shawn Kelley on this list, but Texas is one of many teams still mathematically contending for a postseason berth so they may not be looking to move anyone. That's a considerable number of saves, and obviously, if any of these arms move there could be significant impact on that category.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have never been a big Lance Lynn guy, mostly because he has a history of starting off well but then fading quickly as the season wore on. Interestingly, since moving to Texas, his pitches seem to have more life, and we have already passed the point in the year where his effectiveness usually wanes.
• Jameson Taillon has finally resumed throwing after several delays. He's not out of the woods yet, as any further pain in his cranky forearm/elbow would almost assuredly mean an end to his season. Once he advances to throwing off a mound, we'll know more. Best-case scenario is probably a mid-August return.
• If the Twins make a deep run into the playoffs, Jose Berrios will likely be a huge part of it. His filthy breaking ball is virtually unhittable when he locates it well, and he has the hard stuff working, too. In my eyes, he's flirting with true stardom, and it could click in at any time. Acquire him if you can. The price will go up.
• I'm going to give Dodgers' righty Walker Buehler a mulligan for his last start against the Phillies. It was yet another example of the final line not being truly indicative of the pitcher's performance. He made a couple mistakes, but there were fielding lapses, too, and for most of the outing he was pretty sharp.
• After missing the first half with elbow issues, Toronto's Ryan Borucki could be close to returning. He impressed me last season with a plus-plus changeup that headlined his repertoire, and exceptional mound demeanor. He's not an ace, but if his command is there, he could be a fantasy asset to teams seeking help.
• I've mentioned the possible reemergence of Yu Darvish as a top tier pitcher a few times recently, and after watching a few innings of his last start, I think he might be almost all the way back. Excellent movement, and while he did miss his spot a handful of times, you could see his confidence in throwing strikes.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Jays would probably like to move Ken Giles before the deadline, but given his recent health issues, it would be a leap of faith for a contender to pursue him. It still could happen, making Daniel Hudson a speculative add for teams looking for saves. After getting drubbed 16-2 by the Dodgers, the Phillies coughed up a 6-1 lead capped off by a three-run homer served up by Hector Neris in the ninth inning of the next game. There's no one waiting to take the job. An acquisition is probably imminent. Their bullpen is a train wreck. Of course, the Phillies rallied off of Kenley Jansen, aided by a bruised ankle suffered in a comebacker, a little luck and some fielding follies. However, Jansen's cutter, while still pretty good, just isn't the wipeout pitch it used to be. In Oakland, despite being back from a short stint on the injured list, I'm not convinced Blake Treinen is fully healthy, making Liam Hendriks a fairly valuable commodity for the immediate future. The Rockies' Wade Davis is still their closer, but that's not attributed to performance. He's allowed 48 baserunners in 28 innings (1.69 WHIP with a 6.04 ERA), and that doesn't play, especially in Coors Field.