The Z Files: Top 50 Outfielders, Part Two

Last but not least, today we'll wrap up the positional series with my top outfielders, not yet discussed. It's rather fitting this is the last column of the year, or maybe it was just good planning. Sticking to the process, in order to get 25 new names to thumbnail, the list needs to be extended to a top 32 with seven guys already handled in a previous posting.

While outfield may not be as flush in the middle and back end as usual, it's quite top heavy. In fact, it's stacked! Tie no longer goes to the non-outfielder in the first few rounds. So much so, don't fret if you start a draft with two outfielders. It's best not to leave stats on the table because you already have an outfielder. Trust me, you'll find infielders.

So, without further ado, [drum roll] my top 25 outfielders [/drum roll].

32. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

For two seasons, Stanton shunned the injury bug. There was a time Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria were injury prone, only to shake the label and become two of the most durable players in the game. It's back to the drawing board for the slugger as he missed all but 18 games with biceps and knee woes. Further, Stanton suffered a Grade 2 quad strain in the playoffs that would have forced an IL visit in-season. He is expected to be ready for spring training. As numbers driven as I am, this rank is mostly subjective. At this point, any playing time projection is pure speculation. His range of outcomes is literally zero to 162 games. The rank is the spot I'd take him in a draft, backfilled to get the projection in sync. Think of having Stanton in your queue for several rounds and finally deciding the risk is worth it. For those curious, this rank assumes about 124 games.

31. Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox

There's a good chance I'm lower on Jimenez than most. One reason is the now-loaded White Sox lineup could push Jimenez into the six or maybe seven hole. Another: his defense is subpar, so I can see him being replaced late in games, losing some playing time. Perhaps most importantly, while I see an improvement in last season's .267 average, I'm not pushing him into the .280s or higher. Last season's Statcast xBA was .268, so there wasn't any bad luck signaling potential regression to a better mark. The power, however, is indisputable.

30. Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles

Covered in my Top 20 First Basemen

29. Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals

Last season was the perfect storm for Soler. The rebuilding Royals had an open DH spot for the defensively challenged former Cub, and they didn't care about his proclivity to strike out. Not to mention, there's no longer a league-wide stigma about high strikeout batters; there's no longer shame in fanning. The rest was up to him and he came through, lofting the ball more than 2018 and hitting it harder than any time in his career. Gravity usually pulls breakouts back, but Soler appears established as a player with a high floor in the power department.

28. Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals

First, the easy part. When he's on the field, Eaton is a five-category contributor, capable of mid to high teens homers and steals with a solid average and commensurate production. The catch is, like so many players in today's game, health. The last five seasons Eaton has 689, 706, 107, 370 and most recently 656 plate appearances. He has no current injury concerns and a clear path to playing time. This rank is likely aggressive, based on a seemingly optimistic 636 PA, a slight step back from last season. The good news is it won't cost nearly this much to get a little help here and a little help there – and you can replace Eaton if/when he's out.

27. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins

While it's myopic to deem Rosario strictly a floor player, he offers a sense of reliability amid a tier replete with risk. His skill set is stable, and there's some playing time upside if the lefty swinger can continue making strides facing same-side pitching. While Rosario has never been a burner, he looked like someone capable of challenging for double-digit steals. However, his success rate is poor and the Twins stopped running after the break last season, so consider any bags as icing on the cake (I don't like gravy, yeah, crazy, I know).

26. Danny Santana, Texas Rangers

Covered in my Top 20 First Basemen

25. Michael Conforto, New York Mets

When Conforto first came up, I comped him to Curtis Granderson and Mets Twitter lit me up. I guess they forgot in his peak, Granderson was a 40-homer, .250 guy for a couple of seasons. Conforto is entering his age-27 season so there's still plenty of time to get there. Shoot, it could even be this year if he reverses his worsening trend against southpaw pitching. If not, the Granderson comp could be over his head. Please don't tell any Mets fans I said that.

24. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets

Covered in my Top 20 Second Basemen

23. Yasiel Puig, Free Agent

Puig's rank is obviously fluid until he signs. His floor is pretty well established around 25 homers and 15 bags. He's never cranked 30 long balls or swiped 20 bases, but it wouldn't be shocking if he did either, or perhaps both, depending on his landing spot. Durability is an issue, though Puig has enjoyed two healthy seasons in his last three, including 2019.

22. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Covered in my Top 20 Second Basemen

21. Nicholas Castellanos, Free Agent

Castellanos is another slugger in search of a home. After a slow start, he crushed after being dealt to the Cubs in July. He owns a very consistent skill set, though he's showing signs he could inch his strikeouts below 20 percent. Castellanos has a penchant for hitting line drives as well as carrying an above average exit velocity on fly balls. This serves to provide a solid floor in both average and power. Another plus is durability, as Castellanos has averaged 155 games and 669 plate appearances over the last three campaigns.

20. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

He's in a select group (Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, Nelson Cruz) with exceptional average exit velocities and hard hit rates. Like everyone except Cruz, contact is an issue as Judge hovers near 70 percent. He does carry a high walk rate, but it's dwindled a bit since his record-setting freshman season. The other thing in decline since his rookie season is games played, as Judge has gone from 155 to 112 before playing in just 102 last season. Like his teammate Stanton, Judge's rank is more feel than science. When are you willing to take the risk?

19. Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Now past his shoulder woes, Brantley has returned to form. However, there's a yellow flag, to be taken with a grain of salt, or something like that: his home production is on a slight downward path. Like most players, Brantley's always put up better numbers at home, but last season he was better on the road. This isn't something he learned; he was lucky. A high line drive rate in away games spiked his BABIP and hence average. If his home slide continues and he reverts to previous levels as a visitor, Brantley could fall short of .300. This is important -- not the .300 part, but losing any average at all since he's a compiler and should only be counted on for 145 games, especially with Kyle Tucker in need to some playing time, even if they both swing from the left side.

18. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Covered in my Top 20 Third Basemen

17. Victor Robles, Washington Nationals

Robles is a very interesting player since he represents one of the few options to address speed without completely selling out power. The caution is Robles' underlying home run metrics don't paint a rosy picture. His exit velocity is weak, though the primary cause is an unusually low mark on grounders. His average exit velocity on lofted balls is still below the league norm, but within shouting distance. His average fly ball distance is very low, another cause for concern. On the flip side, he has elite speed and the Nationals ran wild last season. Robles' success rate isn't great, so if he can improve that, the 30 steals most pencil in can jump to the next level (upside in the 40 range).

16. Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres

While the keratoconus plaguing Pham is under control, he's dealt with assorted minor bumps and bruises the past few campaigns. Last season, his play was hindered down the stretch by hand and elbow issues, though the expectation is for full health in the spring. He has joined the 20/20 club two of the past three seasons and is a good bet to eclipse those plateaus again in San Diego as he's maintained productive play in a couple of other home parks that suppress hitting (Busch Stadium, Tropicana Field). Something to note: one reason Pham was able to tough it out through some injuries was getting 21 games at designated hitter, an option unavailable in the senior circuit.

15. Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

Covered in my Top 20 Second Basemen

14. Marcell Ozuna, Free Agent

It's fair to question this seemingly lofty rank but remember, Ozuna has spent his entire career toiling in two of the league's worst venues for power yet he's still managed to average 28 homers the past four seasons. The ranking assumes a neutral park with a league-average offense around him, elevating his homers and run production. Ozuna could leapfrog a couple ahead of him if he signs in a power-friendly ballpark with a good lineup. There's a big buying opportunity in early drafts, since most eyeball his park-depressed stats and rank based on that.

13. Ramon Laureano, Oakland Athletics

When my little black box first spewed out the rankings, I was sure there was a mistake with Laureano. Nope, there isn't. Admittedly, I could be on the high end with playing time, but his glove and hose will keep him in the lineup so long as he's healthy. I'm actually conservative with 619 plate appearances, around 85 percent of available playing time, with some of those PAs coming lower in the order even though Laureano could also hit at or near the top. He's known for his highlight reel defense, but he has an above average hard-hit rate and average exit velocity along with 85th percentile sprint speed. Plate skills are a hole in his game. His already low walk rate dipped a bit last season, but he improved his strikeout rate a couple of ticks. For his career, Laureano is 20-for-23 stealing bases, a success rate worthy of more frequent green lights.

12. George Springer, Houston Astros

Maybe this is too granular, trying to be the smartest guy in the room. Maybe it's brilliant, time will tell. Last season, Springer's power output surged, and I think it's real and repeatable. His fly ball rate has been slowly trending upward, a good sign. However, last season, Springer's exit velocity on fly balls soared, resulting in a career high 39 homers in just 122 games. This is a descriptive account, not predictive, but a velo increase like that must be more than happenstance so I like him to maintain a good deal of the gain. The wild card is health, as he's averaged just 134 games the past three seasons and Kyle Tucker is capable of filling in.

11. Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays

All this talk about a helium shortage is rubbish. Just go over to where Meadows lives, it's all there. The thing is, it's warranted. He needs to buck the typical Rays trend of giving players liberal time off, but if Meadows is a typical full-time player, we're looking at a fantasy stud. He checks all the boxes with a chance to get better, especially in the plate skills department as his minor-league history suggests fewer whiffs with more walks. If there's a chink in the armor, it's a poor stolen base success rate, possibly curtailing his running a bit. Jump on the bandwagon, there's plenty of room, just go easy on the steals expectation.

10. Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Blackmon remains one of the most underappreciated players in fantasy. Drafters look for reasons not to take him instead of focusing on the steady and solid contributions. He doesn't run. No, not anymore. If he did, he's be top five instead of top 10. What if he gets traded? Yeah, the market for a 33-year-old corner outfielder recently signed to a multi-year contract at about $18 M per with two player options is rocking. Who cares if Blackmon is a product of Coors Field? He's going to play half his games there again.

9. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies

Has Harper shaken the injury prone label? He's only missed eight games the past two seasons. On the field, the past two campaigns are mirror images. If this is his baseline, it's not bad, though below what may have been expected a few years back. Curiously, while Harper's durability has improved, his contact rate has dipped. His walk rate is still stellar, so from that regard his OBP remains healthy. With him, you never know, but it certainly appears as though he's settled into a stable baseline with some upside if he can reduce the punchouts.

8. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

Let's say it together – Zola overvalues steals. Yeah, been there, done that. The true value of a steal and the market rate are different. That's fine. It doesn't mean Marte isn't worthy of this rank, he most certainly is. If there's a pricing deficiency, stop trolling me and draft him at a discount. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Marte isn't exhibiting any indication he's slowing down, literally and figuratively. His skill set remains strong, featuring 92nd percentile sprint speed.

7. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

If the players in from of Soto weren't such solid fantasy contributors, he'd incur a playoff bump based on last year's heroic postseason. Granted, I'll get pushback on the next player, but the main point is most already think so highly of Soto he won't be subject to an artificial bump. The scary thing is he just turned 21, so the natural inclination is for improvement. He's not going to be a burner so the steals upside isn't there, but he's a heady kid so at least for the next few seasons, Soto will bag a handful of swipes. The logical upgrade is improved contact and maybe power. Honestly? Who cares. The guy is special right now.

6. J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

There's a good chance this is considered controversial. Last season, it may have been looked at as too low. What's changed? Martinez had a slightly down season. After posting a 167 and 170 wRC+ in 2017 and 2018, he plummeted all the way to 140, a career year for most players. Martinez's run production dipped, some from the slide in performance, but also an artifact of Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts combining for 232 RBI in front of him. Red Sox fans don't want to hear it, but both younger hitters are in line for a downturn, leaving more ducks on the pond for Martinez. He's the same guy as this time last season, deserving of a similar rank.

5. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Covered in my Top 20 First Basemen

4. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

Let's all take a moment to sympathize with the myriad of drafters settling for Betts fourth or fifth overall. You know, the top overall fantasy guy in 2016 and 2018. Like his teammate Martinez, he appeared to have an off year, but the skills suggest otherwise. Luck seems like a copout means of analysis but in this case it's apropos. To wit, in 2018, Betts xBA was .314 compared to .311 last year, essentially the same. His 2018 average was .346 whereas it was .295 last season. His xSLG was .610 two years ago, dropping a bit to .573 last season so there was some skills decline. However, in 2018, Betts slugged a robust .640, 30 points above expected. Meanwhile, 2019's .524 mark is 49 points shy of expected, more bad luck. Look for him to better last season's performance. Some will say he's playing for a contract, and maybe that plays a part, but he's due for organic improvement.

3. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

FOMO (fear of missing out) is such a strong influence. It's clearly driving Shohei Ohtani's ADP. No one talks about it, but FOMO is also responsible for Trout remaining in the top three. Anyone else averaging 129 games the past three seasons would drop at least 10, more likely 20 or even 30 spots. Projecting Trout with his three-year average of 566 plate appearances drops him to 10th overall. Remember, the delta between the players at the top is much bigger than adjacent players in later rounds. A loss of $10 in projected earnings still keeps him in the first round, whereas it could result in a five-to-10 round drop later in a draft. On the field, the wild card is steals. If playing time is equal between Trout and the two yet-to-be-named fly chasers, he still only finishes third due to fewer bags. However, keep this in mind. The last time he only notched 11 pilfers, he followed with 30 the next season. Yeah, I know, he's older now. All of 27.

2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

With the admission I was leading the regression brigade, it's time to back off as there's an explanation for Yelich's uncanny ability to seemingly knock every fly ball out of the yard. His exaggerated HR/FB mark is backed by a head-shaking ability to hit fly balls harder than most guys smash line drives. Of course, the elephant in the room is Yelich's recovery from his fractured kneecap. The assumption is he'll be fine, and his play will be unaffected, particularly bis running. If this is shown to be true in the spring, Yelich could slide into the top spot.

1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

As off as it is for a risk-averse analyst to proclaim a 22-year-old kid with 267 MLB games under his belt the least risky option on the table, that's where we're at. Heads up: Trout, Yelich and Acuna are a dead heat. The guy who ends up stealing more than projected would likely come out on top. As of this writing, Acuna carries the least health risk. Skills-wise, he's a step behind Yelich and Trout, save steals. So long as the kid remains at leadoff for Atlanta, he should outpace his fellow outfielders in the stolen base department, fueling his top overall ranking.