Farm Futures: Pitcher Tiers
Farm Futures: Pitcher Tiers

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

This is the lowest I've had the top pitcher ranked on my top 400 heading into a season since I first started doing this in the 2015-16 offseason. That could be slightly due to the fact I really like the 14 position players I have ranked up top, but it has more to do with past experiences informing future decisions. If you recall in my top 10 pitching prospects of the decade piece, three of the top 10 were flat out busts, and roughly half were relative busts if you expand and include the five honorable mention arms I listed. If you compare that to the success rate of the top 10 hitting prospects of the decade, it's pretty clear that there's a lot more risk with the top arms. Everyone knows this, of course, but I feel like it is not properly reflected in rankings for fantasy. One could make a pretty good argument that no pitcher should ever be in the top 10, and I subscribe to that notion more now than I ever have before.

Here is a breakdown of where pitchers are ranked in my top 400:

RangePitching Prospects
1-5012 (24%)
1-10031 (31%)
1-20065 (32.5%)
1-400133 (33.3%)

TIER ONE

1. Forrest Whitley, Astros

2. MacKenzie Gore, Padres

3. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics

If someone said any of these three pitching prospects is the top pitching prospect in the game, I would not raise my hand to argue, so

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast. FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year finalist in 2012.
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