This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
We're only a couple weeks from Opening Day, but rosters and preparations for the new season haven't necessarily come together as planned. Simply put, COVID-19 just isn't cooperating. The challenges come in two forms. First, some key players, for personal and very understandable reasons, have opted not to play this season. Generally the reasons involve health risks for the player or risk to family members. Secondly, and this involves all players (and team staff members), every person must test negative for the virus before participating in baseball activities. If they do test positive, they go into quarantine until they test negative twice, typically at least a couple weeks after testing positive. Obviously, a positive test today likely will mean the player will not be available for the beginning of the season. And, that equates to a roster shuffle.
Yes, we will play ball, unless the virus gets completely out of hand, but like so many other things in 2020, in many ways, it won't be like anything we have seen before. There will be differences in the fantasy game as well. Everything about the pandemic is individual. There have been probably 50ish positive tests since training camps resumed – the number changes daily – with most players being asymptomatic or suffering basic flu-like symptoms. How long it will be before each of these players eventually tests negative is very unpredictable. Some could be back soon, while it could theoretically cost others much of the 2020 season. But, as unfortunate as
We're only a couple weeks from Opening Day, but rosters and preparations for the new season haven't necessarily come together as planned. Simply put, COVID-19 just isn't cooperating. The challenges come in two forms. First, some key players, for personal and very understandable reasons, have opted not to play this season. Generally the reasons involve health risks for the player or risk to family members. Secondly, and this involves all players (and team staff members), every person must test negative for the virus before participating in baseball activities. If they do test positive, they go into quarantine until they test negative twice, typically at least a couple weeks after testing positive. Obviously, a positive test today likely will mean the player will not be available for the beginning of the season. And, that equates to a roster shuffle.
Yes, we will play ball, unless the virus gets completely out of hand, but like so many other things in 2020, in many ways, it won't be like anything we have seen before. There will be differences in the fantasy game as well. Everything about the pandemic is individual. There have been probably 50ish positive tests since training camps resumed – the number changes daily – with most players being asymptomatic or suffering basic flu-like symptoms. How long it will be before each of these players eventually tests negative is very unpredictable. Some could be back soon, while it could theoretically cost others much of the 2020 season. But, as unfortunate as this all is, these positive tests will create opportunities for pitchers to possibly assume much larger roles than we originally anticipated, and healthy pitchers, especially the best ones, could be asked to handle heavier workloads. Fantasy owners will need to be prepared.
Below are a few teams that already could be facing challenges related to either opt outs or positive COVID-19 tests. There is also one other factor to consider. Some pitchers may have been directly exposed to someone who tested positive even though they are currently testing negative. In those cases, that player will be quarantined for a couple of weeks, and then will need to test negative in order to resume activities. It's sure a complicated world we live in, and baseball is certainly not exempt. That said, let's see if we can sort through some newly created pitching scenarios.
Here are some pitching staffs facing manpower shortages:
- Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies have encountered several health issues and could be very shorthanded for at least part of this season. Aaron Nola avoided quarantine after being exposed to the virus, but he is behind other pitchers and may not be ready for Opening Day. Zack Wheeler is on paternity leave, and there is no word on whether he will opt out once his child is born. That's a lot of potentially lost innings. And, the news is worse in the bullpen. Closer Hector Neris, along with Tommy Hunter, tested positive, and they were already missing Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. I think it's possible Jake Arrieta could bounce back a bit, but they will need all of these guys to get and stay healthy to compete against their rugged East Division schedule. I just don't see much on their roster capable of stepping way up.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are one of the teams considered to be postseason favorites, but they have had some setbacks. David Price was the first front line starter to opt out of playing this season, so his innings are gone. Dustin May and swingman Ross Stripling are the most likely replacements and can be adequate, albeit weaker benefactors, but another option, Tony Gonsolin is not in camp yet, making him unavailable at least early on. Further, closer Kenley Jansen has also yet to report to camp. His recent health issues could put him at higher risk for COVID-19, but hopefully they are just being cautious and he will be ready when the season begins. If not, primary set-up man Blake Treinen would inherit a much larger role. One of the reasons the Dodgers are considered a powerhouse is the depth they have to overcome adversity, but even they could be challenged if they don't have their key arms available.
- Boston Red Sox – Chris Sale was already lost for the season to Tommy John surgery, Rick Porcello is gone to the Mets, and now Eduardo Rodriguez has tested positive for COVID-19. Additionally, one of the relievers they planned to rely on, Darwinzon Hernandez, is also in the quarantine protocol. Until Rodriquez returns, Nathan Eovaldi and newcomer Martin Perez move to the top-of-the rotation food chain. Collin McHugh would be their No. 3 in this scenario, but he is recovering from a flexor strain and is questionable for the start of the season. I actually expect Eovaldi to take a step forward, but the rotation just doesn't appear to have the arms to compete. Swingman Ryan Weber probably inherits one vacant spot, and lefty Brian Johnson could be another option, but neither is likely to be a fantasy asset. The Red Sox are still capable of scoring a lot of runs, but keeping their opponents off the board won't be easy.
- Atlanta Braves – It's probably not a crisis, at least not yet, but the Braves have taken a couple hits to their pitching staff. Veteran Felix Hernandez was expected to fill the fifth starter spot, but he has opted out of playing this season, and key set-up man Will Smith, Brett Martin and Touki Toussaint have tested positive for the corona virus leaving their availability for the start of the season in doubt. Kyle Wright and Sean Newcomb will probably compete for the job vacated by Hernandez. I give the edge to Wright who may not be quite ready, but has a bit more upside. Smith is interesting because he is slated to be Mark Melancon's primary set-up man and presumably would collect save chances if Melancon were unavailable. The bullpen will be pretty thin initially with Shane Greene and Luke Jackson likely to see more high-leverage work until they are back to full strength when Martin will likely also have a significant role.
- Houston Astros – Assuming Justin Verlander is fully healthy, and ready to go on Opening Day – indications are that is the case – the Astros' pitching needs will be at the back of their rotation. Right now, their presumed fourth and fifth starters, Jose Urquidy and Josh James are both away from camp with James in quarantine following a positive test for the corona virus. Without question, the most interesting name among options to fill in is top prospect Forrest Whitley. He has massive upside but really needs to show he can command his full repertoire, which probably makes him unlikely to get the call until later in the year. They are more likely to turn to guys like Austin Pruitt, Framber Valdez or perhaps even Brad Peacock to get them through, which would basically amount to bullpen games. They are also missing set-up man Joe Smith who tested positive, but they should have enough depth in their bullpen to weather the storm until everyone gets healthy.
- Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays rotation looked pretty set in the spring, and it still could be, but we can't be sure right now. Two guys penciled into the rotation, Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos, are not currently in camp with no clear reason given for their absence. We can presume they are either awaiting test results, or perhaps they came in contact with someone who tested positive, which requires a wait and see situation. Regardless of the reason for their current nonparticipation, they both need to be preparing for the opening bell very soon in order to be ready. Glasnow, of course, is one key to a big season for Tampa Bay, so look for updates on his status. If one or both aren't ready to begin the season, I like Trevor Richards as a viable alternative. In fact, I think he could challenge Chirinos for a fulltime spot in the rotation at some point.
Some Random Rotation Ramblings:
- Not all rotation shuffles are related to the pandemic. The Cubs' Jose Quintana cut a nerve in his left thumb in a kitchen accident. The injury required surgery, meaning he won't be ready for Opening Day. Alec Mills was already the favorite to serve as the fifth/sixth starter, but this probably solidifies his role.
- The A's Mike Fiers missed the first week of workouts due to "pending reasons," which quite possibly means he had come into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19. He's clear and back now, but Jesus Luzardo wasn't so lucky. He was just placed on the injured list after testing positive.
- With David Price opting out of playing this year, there might have been an opportunity for Jimmy Nelson to step in, but he just can't get and stay healthy. He looked like a comer in 2017, but shoulder woes have limited him to just 22 innings the past two years, and now back surgery will cost him all of 2020.
- While he couldn't dodge the line drive off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton, it looks like the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka might have dodged a serious injury bullet. He was diagnosed with a mild concussion, but is reportedly not displaying any symptoms, and hopes to be back on the mound soon.
Endgame Odyssey:
The Cardinals have been presenting a pretty good baseball version of The Odyssey as they prepare their bullpen for the upcoming season. Jordan Hicks is unlikely to be ready for the early stages of the year, so the team planned to use Giovanny Gallegos as their interim closer. Unfortunately, Gallegos has been stuck in his native Mexico, so a Plan B might be in order. One possibility is Carlos Martinez, who performed well as the closer last year. He was earmarked for a rotation slot, but the team has depth there and might ask him to finish games until their pen is fully staffed. Andrew Miller is another consideration. Pirates' presumed closer, Keone Kela, is also still missing from camp. If he's not ready to go, there isn't anyone who stands out as a fill-in. Maybe Kyle Crick or a dark horse, Nick Burdi, could get a look. Yes, I'm still quietly expecting a few saves from Kevin Ginkel in Arizona. That's based on the feeling Archie Bradley's versatility could be better served in an expanded role. I think the most reliable (and durable) relievers could see very heavy workloads. That could easily increase the value of workhorses like Bradley, Cincinnati's Michael Lorenzen, New York's Seth Lugo, and Washington's Daniel Hudson, any of which could collect holds, occasional saves, and/or a few vultured wins.
