Rounding Third: Sprint Speed Review

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Published on October 14, 2020

In our quest for finding stolen bases from players who weren't already among last year's stolen base leaders, I dug into Statcast's Sprint Speed this April. Of course, in a sprint season it's difficult to draw definitive conclusions, but let's forge ahead nonetheless and see if we were able to unearth any hidden gems. For a refresher, here's the full explanation from MLB.com's Mike Petriello about what the Sprint Speed metric is. Using the data from Baseball Savant, I looked at the top 24 overall players on the list, setting 100 "Competitive Runs" as the minimum, and then broke it down by position, using lesser minimums. The decision to go top 24 instead of 20 overall proved to be fortuitous. Combing through both sections, here's the list of players I came up with who had some promise.

Results

So how did it go? Let's look at each player (some will be quite brief), with a focus on their stolen bases, noting if they stood out otherwise.

Results

So how did it go? Let's look at each player (some will be quite brief), with a focus on their stolen bases, noting if they stood out otherwise.

Teoscar Hernandez - Suffice to say, if you drafted Hernandez, it was a great success! Not only did Hernandez steal six bases in only 50 games, but he also hit .289/.340/.579 with 16 homers, 34 RBIs and 33 runs. I expanded my overall list to 24 players to include Hernandez, and I'm glad I did. Interestingly enough, Hernandez's average sprint speed declined overall this season, from 29.1 ft/sec to 28.3, still above average. He also missed time with an oblique injury, and I'm not quite sure how that changed his average sprint times, if at all. Hernandez's K% remains too high (30.6 percent), and he actually walked less frequently (6.8 percent), so there's always a risk that a lack of stolen base opportunities could hold him back in 2021.

Harrison Bader - Bader simultaneously improved a bit at the plate (OPS rose from .680 to .779) and yet still was a little disappointing, as his bump in playing time didn't translate into more stolen bases. Bader's slot in the batting order was one of the primary culprits. He batted no higher in the starting lineup than seventh, most often batting ninth. It didn't help that the Cardinals had to play a slew of seven-inning doubleheaders, giving him fewer chances to hit and then run. He remains one of the quickest players in the league, with a 29.4 ft/sec average sprint speed.

Michael Chavis - On the bright side, Chavis *did* run more than last season, stealing three bases in as many attempts. In a short season, each stolen base matters, so that was a nice bonus. Unfortunately, Chavis was disappointing in every other hitting metric, hitting just .212/.259/.377 with five homers, 19 RBIs and 16 runs. Making matters worse, he lost playing time to the likes of Christian Arroyo and Yairo Munoz, playing in only 42 games. His 158 plate appearances were still more than Bader's, for what it's worth, but there's not much to be encouraged in his hitting profile.

Christian Walker - Walker's eight stolen bases did not repeat in 2020, as he had but one stolen base in two attempts. Walker's sprint speed slowed from 27.2 ft/sec to 26.9 — a small drop but well below the outfielders discussed above, and about average for major league baseball in general. Walker's past stolen bases were a far better indicator than sprint speed, at least for this sprint season.

Jose Altuve - Altuve was listed under the hope that a full year of health might allow him to bounce back, but alas the opposite happened. Altuve had a trip to the IL with a recurrence of his knee sprain, and stole just two bases in five attempts. Making matters worse, he collapsed at the plate, hitting .219/.286/.344 in the regular season. He's hit better in the playoffs, but that's no consolation for those who spent a third- or fourth-round pick on him. Ironically, his sprint speed remained nearly constant, dropping from 28.6 ft/sec to 28.5.

Joey Wendle - Jackpot! Well, sort of. Wendle stole eight bases in 50 games to go with a .286 average, four homers, 17 RBIs and 24 runs scored. That puts Wendle in the 13-17 range among second basemen — not bad for a player who wasn't drafted in any NFBC Main Event league. The problem for Wendle is that he hurt you in HR and RBI, and you probably had to miss out on some of those steals before rostering him in the first place. Even accounting for that, however, stolen bases can be like saves — you need them to compete in the overall, so a player that gets them for you doesn't perfectly fold into an earned value calculation. Also, he's "free loot," a term first employed in a rotisserie baseball context by Peter Kreutzer and Alex Patton, and thus still was a pretty big value added.

Dansby Swanson - OK, this was a real jackpot, though in fairness most of Swanson's gains came at the plate, not with his legs, as he stole 10 bases last season. Still, five steals to go with his .275/10/34/49(!) line was pretty nice. Swanson actually ran a touch slower on his competitive runs, dropping from 28.7 to 28.4 ft/sec.

Willy Adames - While Adames improved at the plate (OPS up from .735 to .813), it didn't translate into more stolen bases, despite the team finishing sixth in the majors with 48. Adames netted just two of those bags, in three attempts. Sprint speed doesn't really tell the story (28.3 ft/sec in 2019, 28.1 in 2020), nor does batting order, as he batted at least six times in four spots in the lineup, as high as fifth and as low as eighth.

Hunter Dozier - Dozier had a disappointing year, starting with a positive COVID-19 test at the beginning of the season, but at least for the purposes of this article, not all was lost, as he swiped four bags in as many attempts and scored 29 runs in 44 games. He'll have duel 1B/OF eligibility in 2021.

Harold Ramirez - Ramirez was among the slew of Marlins who tested positive for COVID-19 early in the season, and then he had a severe hamstring injury upon his first game back. It'll be difficult for him to earn playing time next season, and it might not be with the Marlins.

Josh Rojas - It was a lost season for Rojas, who got one at-bat over the Diamondbacks' first eight games and then was sent down to their alternate training camp site for a month. He then ended the season on the IL with a back injury. In between, he netted only 70 plate appearances, stealing one base in two attempts.

Lewis Brinson - Brinson's season started late as he was on the injured list for an undisclosed reason before it even got started, before the Marlins' COVID-19 outbreak. Once he returned, he struggled mightily and lost his starting job for a while. He eventually got the job back and went 4-for-4 on the basepaths, making his inclusion a modest success.

Avisail Garcia - Yeah, this didn't work, for the Brewers or for those who rostered him in fantasy leagues alike. After stealing 10 bases for the Rays in 2019, Garcia had just one in four attempts for the Brewers in 2020, hitting a paltry .238/.333/.326 in the process. His sprint speed dropped precipitously too, from 28.8 ft/sec down to 28.0.

Clear successes: Teoscar Hernandez, Joey Wendle, Dansby Swanson

Modest successes: Hunter Dozier, Lewis Brinson

Mild disappointments: Harrison Bader, Willy Adames

Clear Failures: Michael Chavis, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Avisail Garcia

Incomplete: Harold Ramirez, Josh Rojas

This wasn't the most exhaustive search, or evaluation method of that search, but there were about the same number of misses as there were hits. Let's keep in mind that it's a weird season, and we were deprived of a regular season to evaluate. I'll look at this metric for future seasons in our never-ending quest for stolen bases.