Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

Mound Musings is all about interaction. I appreciate the questions, and discussing whether this guy or that guy is the best pitcher to have on a roster is what it's all about. That said, over the past couple of years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has gradually become a semiregular part of Mound Musings. As we try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers. As we get up to speed for the 2021 season, I thought it might be useful to outline some of the things I focus on when ranking, comparing pitchers or just deciding whether I would like a specific pitcher taking the mound for my teams. There are several things to look at, so let's go.

Please rank the following four pitchers: Let's kick things off with some explanation regarding the question I probably see most often – "Please rank Pitcher A, Pitcher B, Pitcher C and Pitcher D." It's certainly a very fair question, and I do my best to offer my most educated opinions, but there is a factor that often impacts the response. I call it, "Do I have to take one, or is a beating with a rubber hose an option?"

Don't get me wrong, even though ranking questions can be very challenging, I truly enjoy them because those types of questions are an excellent exercise to assess the pros and cons of several arms. There is almost a little of both. Pitchers didn't get here without some skills, and nobody's perfect.

There are many factors involved, but typically the first is anticipated role. When the pitchers in question are all expected to perform the same job, it's easier, but often, some are likely starters while others pitch primarily in relief. In general, quality starters are harder to find than closers, who are harder to find than set-up guys, so extra credit is usually granted based on anticipated role.

Following role expectations, we meander through risk vs. reward (often those with the potentially highest reward will also present the greatest risk), today or tomorrow (is the pitcher you are adding going into the lineup this week or can he be stashed for a while), and, of course, the "do no harm" principle (outlined below).

And, that is why a "please rank these pitchers" question can get a bit complicated. The intended role almost always impacts the ranking. Let's say the "who would you rather have" list of pitchers includes Madison Bumgarner, Yusmeiro Petit, Dylan Floro and MacKenzie Gore. If I am looking to fill a vacant active roster spot, Bumgarner easily is a consideration. He's a former all-star, he's active, and while his health and recent performance are questionable (high risk), you can make a case for upside. If you are looking for saves, or perhaps holds, Bumgarner moves down since he is unlikely to pitch out of the bullpen. Floro is higher risk, but he could get into the saves mix if that is most important, while Petit is probably lower risk but offers little upside. However, if the guy is not needed immediately and your team is in a keeper/dynasty league, Gore sails to the top of the list with by far the highest upside/ceiling of the group but without a clear picture of when he will actually join the big league team. As you can see, I can make a case for any of the four being top of the list, depending on need and circumstances, and things are typically so fluid, the ranking can change from day to day.

The "Do No Harm" Principle: Every year, I talk a bit about the "Do No Harm" principle. It's a cardinal rule in my approach. Regular readers know I mention this principle frequently. The impact of subpar performances, often as injury replacements, and the need to win now can be devastating for actual MLB teams and your fantasy squad.

It's very unlikely you will be able to stack a rotation with nothing but healthy, top-of-the-rotation talent, but you have to be careful when filling those back-of-the-rotation slots. More so than with hitters, a bad pitcher can be a nightmare waiting to happen. Poor hitters may not add counting stats, but that 0-for-4, perhaps dropping your team batting average a point today, is quickly forgotten. Tomorrow is another day. Conversely, pitching nightmares can haunt your WHIP and ERA for the rest of your season. That is doing harm, and it's not an easy thing to erase.

I wish I could say I have always avoided this, but the best laid plans … Let me illustrate. One of my 2021 teams included Brad Keller and Patrick Corbin in the rotation. After two starts each, the pair had tossed 11 innings, allowing 27 hits, 12 walks (3.56 WHIP) and 25 earned runs (20.45 ERA). Let's say my starting pitchers compile an excellent 2.00 ERA and an even better 1.00 WHIP over their next 15 starts covering 90 innings. My team ERA would still be a mediocre 4.01, and their WHIP would be a weak 1.30.

A top prospect can be very appealing, but is the kid ready? These days pitchers are frequently rushed to the majors, and while they may briefly enjoy some success while hitters learn their strengths and weaknesses, the under-developed aspects of their game usually surface fairly soon. Just when you think they are safe to use in your lineup, the meltdown comes. And, in reality, they might not be very good prospects. It may seem counterintuitive, but teams are usually more conservative in promoting the best arms in their system. So, especially earlier in the season, it might be safer to fill-in with that boring veteran who isn't likely going to be a huge boost, but, being a known commodity, is less likely to offset the contributions of your frontline guys. That's the theory.

I really dislike this rule: Flipping the page, this pandemic has brought about a lot of change in the game, some directly and some not so directly. For example, basic doubleheaders (that are frequent), are only seven innings. I'm okay with that. Rosters ae slightly bigger. I'm okay with that. I think this is probably the last season we will play with no designated hitter in the National League. I'm a bit of a traditionalist, so I have mixed feelings on this, but if it keeps pitcher-killers like Marcell Ozuna and Kyle Schwarber gloveless, I have to vote in favor of pitchers putting the bats away.

However, starting every half inning of an extra innings game with a runner on second base makes me crazy. I understand the goal is to shorten the game and speed things up, but, in my opinion, this goes too far. I don't want my closer to suffer a "blown" save through no fault of his own. It's not real baseball in my eyes. It's like the shootout in hockey (I hate that one, too).  

There likely will be more rule changes coming. They're testing various changes in the minor leagues this year. Some will be designed to increase the running game, and I miss stolen bases, so I hope something helps in that area. There are also rules being tested to restrict the "shift" that has become so common today. I'm afraid these tend to bring out the old fashioned in me too. I guess I don't feel it should be necessary. So much has been done to increase homeruns – including player salaries to encourage it – that today's players never learn to hit the other way. I'm okay with homeruns, but why penalize a team for stacking their defense to reduce the danger of a 160-pound journeyman middle infielder coming out of his spikes and rolling over on a 3-0 pitch, grounding weakly into a double play to an entire team positioned on the left side of second base. Back in my day (I know you've heard that before, LOL), the manager would put a hit-and-run on, and even a mediocre hitter frequently would hit the ball to the right side, putting runners on first and third with no outs. Maybe the shifts would be minimized if we went back to teaching Baseball 101 to kids.

Don't you just hate it: Let's close this out with a glimpse at the daily highlights show. The plays of the day exclusively feature a couple of impossible fielding plays, and you realize the hitters being robbed were your fantasy team hitters. Every one of them! Then they wrap it up with a laugher when an outfielder lets a routine fly ball clank off his forehead, emptying the bases and costing his team the lead. They rule it an inside the park homerun. Wait. Who was the poor pitcher? Of course, it was your ace. Goodbye win. Goodbye quality start. Goodbye solid ERA. Don't you just hate that?

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I have loved Aaron Nola since he came out of college. He has great breaking stuff and he does a great job of working in and out, but I've always thought he would be even better if he worked up and down in the zone more. This year, he is doing just that. Move him up a notch on your shopping list.
• The Rangers have displayed an interesting usage pattern with first year import Kohei Arihara. He has pitched relatively well over four starts, compiling a solid 2.21 ERA, but he routinely gets the hook after just 75 to 80 pitches, even if that pitch count occurs in the middle of an inning with Texas comfortably ahead.
• The long awaited 2021 debut of the Padres Dinelson Lamet was encouraging but ultimately disappointing. Lamet briefly looked very good, striking out four in two scoreless innings, but he left after just 29 pitches with what is being labeled forearm tightness. There will be more to come on the long-term prognosis.
• In the past, Lucas Giolito has stated he isn't comfortable pitching in the morning. Unfortunately, he drew an 11 a.m. (10 a.m. Chicago time) Patriot's Day start in Boston, and it wasn't pretty. I think if it happens again, I would bump his start back a day. Give him a mulligan in this one. He'll be fine I think.

Endgame Odyssey:

One very interesting pen to play out as the season progresses is in St. Louis. I believe the eventual closer will be Jordan Hicks, but the team is playing it cautiously. Look for Alex Reyes to handle the ninth for a bit longer, but Hicks is probably close to taking the reins. The Mariners bullpen has been very strong this year. They clearly want to see Rafael Montero succeed as their closer, but he has been a bit inconsistent with his command, so having Keynan Middleton as a handcuff might be prudent. I think the only thing decided by the open auditions in Arizona is that Joakim Soria will likely get an extended look at closer when he returns from a calf injury. No one else has really stepped up to lay claim to the job. Toronto's Julian Merryweather isn't expected back from a strained oblique for about a month, and I don't think he will return to the primary closer's gig. The question is, who will take over the role. Jordan Romano should return from the injured list soon, and he is probably the long term favorite, but there is a small window of opportunity for Rafael Dolis if he can convert a couple opportunities in the interim. For the most part, Giants closer Jake McGee has been very reliable. He did recently experience a hiccup and was promptly added to the COVID IL, before returning to the active roster a couple days later. The COVID protocols are important, but they can be very disruptive to a pitcher's normal daily routine.