MLB Betting: Tuesday Division Series Best Bets

MLB Betting: Tuesday Division Series Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous article 1-2 -1.2

Overall 156-126-2 +12.02

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox 2:07 pm EDT

Lance McCullers vs. Carlos Rodon

The Astros look to have caught a huge break with yesterdays' postponement as they can now start Lance McCullers over Jose Urquidy. The White Sox are still starting Carlos Rodon which surprises me.

Carlos Rodon is clearly not 100% and has been on a pitch count with a drop in velocity. The Astros are not the type of team that bodes well for Rodon and I can see them jumping on him early. I think Rodon will go 3 innings max in this game.

McCullers looked awesome in Game 1, going 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing four hits and no walks. This is huge for McCullers who has always had control issues. The Astros won both games in which McCullers was a road underdog (vs. Walker Buehler and vs. Gerrit Cole).  

BET – Astros over 1.5 runs F5 (-145 DraftKings) for 1.5 RW buck

BET – Astros ML (-110) for 1.1 RW buck

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves 5:15 pm EDT

Eric Lauer vs. Charlie Morton

From June 27 to September 24th, Lauer had 14 starts for 75.2 innings, with a 1.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 73 strikeouts, and 25 walks, while allowing just 4 home runs.

Morton has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball all year. He is going on short rest, so there could be a shorter hook on him today as the Braves originally had Huascar Ynoa listed as the starter. Ynoa has great home splits so between the two the Braves are going for the kill in Game 4.

Both teams have struggled to score runs, but especially the Brewers so I am sticking with the lower scoring outcome.

BET – Under 4.5 runs F5 (-120) for 1.2 RW buck

BET – Brewers under 3.5 runs (-115) for 1.15 RW buck

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 9:07 pm EDT

Anthony DeSclafani vs. Tony Gonsolin  Walker Buehler

NOTE - The Dodgers announced Walker Buehler as the starter on short rest, but Tony Gonsolin is slated to be the first arm out of the pen, so a lot of the research and data I got on him is still relevant. 

The Dodgers had 14 games in which they were home favorites between -100 and -160. The average score in those games was 4.2-3.3 and they were 9-5 SU. The Giants took 3 out of 4 from the Dodgers in those 14 games.

The Dodgers are 9-4 in games that Gonsolin started (6-1 at home), but the one loss was as a -125 favorite to the Giants.

The Dodgers are just 4-8 at home against the Giants this year.

In 5 starts since coming off the IL with shoulder issues, Gonsolin has had 2 strong starts (both vs. Arizona) and 3 subpar starts. He had an ERA of 4.05, 1.15 WHIP, while averaging 4 innings.

DeSclafani has faced the Dodgers six times this year with mixed results (2 strong starts, 2 middle of the road, and 2 bad). In his 3 starts in Los Angeles, he had a 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 15.2 innings.

As much as people want to lean on the "must-win" game narrative or how they can't see the Dodgers losing, I can, and I will continue to take the value on the Giants. Especially with the Dodgers coming off a very difficult 1-0 loss in which Gavin Lux looked to have hit the game-winning home run only to be disappointed.

BET – Over 4 runs F5 (-115) for 1.15 RW buck

BET – Giants ML (+150) for 1 RW buck

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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