Regan's Rumblings: An Early Midseason Check In

For this week's Bats and Balls, I thought I'd pull a few lists together. Lists are always fun, as inevitably I'll leave someone off that should be there or I'll be called incompetent for choosing Player A over Player B. Feel free to chime in with your picks as well.

The All-Fantasy Team

C Stephen Vogt, OAK
1B Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
2B Dee Gordon, MIA
SS Jhonny Peralta, STL
3B Todd Frazier, CIN
OF Bryce Harper, WAS
OF Mike Trout, LAA
OF Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
SP Max Scherzer, WAS
SP Chris Archer, TB
SP Gerrit Cole, PIT
RP Trevor Rosenthal, STL

This was a list that was relatively easy to put together. At first, Paul Goldschmidt has the slight advantage over Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, and Joey Votto, with a surging Albert Pujols ranking fifth on my board. It was really the 12 steals that sold me on Goldschmidt... Second base came down to Jason Kipnis and Gordon who are both hitting .354, but it's Gordon's 24 steals that give him the edge over Kipnis' five HR advantage... At short, Brandon Crawford (.275/.352/.463) is having a breakout season, but Peralta has 30 points of average and two home runs on him... No one has really separated himself at catcher this year, but Vogt's 13 homers lead the pack and he's batting .294/.393/.545 with a 14.8 BB%. That probably means Billy Beane will trade him for prospects soon (see below for more on Vogt)... Todd Frazier's 23 homers aren't a surprise, but I thought he's hit that many by September, not by June 24... It was pretty easy to pick the three outfielders. We'll give honorable mentions to Joc Pederson, Nelson Cruz, and a guy who could go 25/25 in George Springer... At the starting pitcher position, Scherzer and Archer were automatics and should be the Cy Young favorites at this point. The third spot came down to Cole and a bunch of guys along the lines of Chris Sale, Sonny Gray, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke, but Cole has 11 wins, a 1.78 ERA, and a 9.6 K/9... At closer, Rosenthal's 22 saves are just two fewer than league leader Mark Melancon's 24, but Rosenthal has a 0.56 ERA and has 12 more strikeouts than does Melancon. Also considered Drew Storen here.

The All-Value Team

If you have more than a couple of these guys on your squad, you are probably doing quite well in your league.

C Stephen Vogt, OAK
1B Albert Pujols, LAA
2B Joe Panik, SF
SS Brandon Crawford, SF
3B Mike Moustakas, KC
OF Joc Pederson, LAD
OF A.J. Pollock, ARI
OF Cameron Maybin, ATL
SP Shelby Miller, ATL
SP Carlos Martinez, STL
SP Danny Salazar, CLE
RP Jeurys Familia, NYM

It's safe to say we missed the boat on Vogt this winter, as he wasn't even listed in our catcher rankings and because he played more first base than catcher last year, he slotted on that list... at no. 47 and at no. 614 overall. Yeah that was a miss, but Vogt also hit .186 over the season's final two months, was coming off surgery, and was thought of strictly as a platoon guy. Well, all he's doing now is leading all catchers in home runs while batting a surprising .288/.371/.442 versus southpaws. 12 of his 13 home runs have come against RHP (daily leaguers take note), but he's also not a guy who necessarily needs to be benched against LHP in roto formats... The first two numbers in Pujols' .277/.339/.581 slash are not vintage Pujols, but a HR barrage gives him 23 on the year to lead all first basemen. We had him as the no. 8 1B this winter, and that may be a few spots low... As our no. 26 ranked second baseman, we had Joe Panik behind such studs as Jedd Gyorko and possible All-Star Omar Infante. His six homers are just one shy of his professional high and he's improved his BB% from 5.6 to 9.1... We had Brandon Crawford as the no. 19 shortstop behind the likes of sluggers like Jordy Mercer, Chris Owings, and Jimmy Rollins. Sorry about that. We just didn't expect Crawford to build THIS much upon last year's career-high .713 OPS... Third base was a tough call, but Moustakas is batting a healthy .327, and we have to think he'll hit more than his current six homers the rest of the way... In the outfield, we knew Joc Pederson went for 30/30 in the Pacific Coast League last year, but he's now on pace for 43 home runs in the big leagues... A.J. Pollock is tied for sixth among outfielders in runs (46) and stolen bases (14) while hitting .310 with nine home runs. 20/20 is possible... Cameron Maybin has taken over CF for the Braves and is batting a surprising .286/.363/.399 with six homers and 13 steals. He could just be a late bloomer after being a top prospect many years ago... On the pitching side, we could certainly slotted hurlers like Chris Archer here as well, but let's talk about some different guys. We knew Shelby Miller had more upside than he's shown to date, but with a 1.99 ERA for the Braves, he's certainly taken another step forward... Carlos Martinez benefited from Miller's departure and is now a key piece of the St. Louis rotation... Finally, while Salazar has a 4.06 ERA, he's also 10th in the majors with 99 strikeouts while walking just 22. His ERA should trend down... With 19 saves and a 1.38 ERA, Familia has been a pretty solid waiver claim.

The All-Rookie Team

C J.T. Realmuto, MIA
1B Justin Bour, MIA
2B Devon Travis, TOR
SS Carlos Correa, HOU
3B Kris Bryant, CHC
OF Joc Pederson, LAD
OF Steven Souza, TB
OF Billy Burns, OAK
SP Carlos Rodon, CHW
SP Lance McCullers, HOU
SP Trevor May, MIN
RP Carson Smith, SEA

Apologies here to Joey Gallo and Maikel Franco, and to a lesser extend Matt Duffy and Alex Guerrero, as this has really been the year of the rookie third baseman, led of course by Kris Bryant. It should be a great race for NL Rookie of the Year between Bryant, Franco, and rookie HR and OBP leader, Joc Pederson... Realmuto batted .299/.369/.461 last year in Double-A, so there's some offensive upside with him, but he's also hitting a paltry .214/.231/.325 vs. RHP. Not sure the Marlins have found their no. 1 catcher of the future just yet... Bour has been a nice surprise for the Marlins, but he's also 27 and has trouble hitting LHP. Hard to be sure he's a regular going forward, especially with Mike Morse soon to return from the DL... Devon Travis homered once every 35 at-bats in the minors, but his seven HR this year equate to once per 19 at-bats. He's unlikely to keep up that pace, but this sort of power from a MI isn't all that common... Guys like Nick Ahmed have more at-bats, but Carlos Correa simply exudes Hall of Fame potential. I'm not too worried about that 16:3 K:BB... Remember when Kris Bryant couldn't find his power stroke right away? Well, no worries there. He could hit 20 more the rest of the way. He's striking out in more than 29% of his PA's, but he's always been that way, and given more experience we could see that number drop shortly... We've already talked about Pederson and his sudden 40-homer power, but if he can just get that BA in the .270s, his fantasy value skyrockets. Same thing with Steven Souza to a lesser extent. His power is real, but so is the BA downside. Burns? 15 steals and a .320 BA in 47 games qualifies as a shocker. That BA won't last, but the 25-year-old could be a Brock Holt type... The rookie pitchers don't measure up to the hitters, but young arms like Noah Syndergaard, soon Steven Matz, and Archie Bradley should eventually settle in as solid starters. Lance McCullers appears to be either a potential ace or a solid closer, but the 21-year-old has a 10.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9, so there may be even more upside here. Rodon would be already my second White Sox starter off the board in dynasty leagues, he just needs to improve his control to take that next step. I picked Trevor May over a bunch of other players due to his prospect pedigree but most of all to an improvement in his BB/9 from 4.3 last year to 1.8 this year... The Mariners appear to have found their closer of the future in Carson Smith (10.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9). Something tells me he'll be a better option than Fernando Rodney going forward.

The All-Most-Likely-To-Improve-In-The-Second-Half Team

C Jonathan Lucroy, MIL
1B Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
2B Rougned Odor, TEX
SS Ian Desmond, WAS
3B Adrian Beltre, TEX
OF Billy Hamilton, CIN
OF Hanley Ramirez, BOS
OF Carlos Gonzalez, COL
SP Carlos Carrasco, CLE
SP Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
SP CC Sabathia, NYY
RP Craig Kimbrel, SD

In terms of the hitters on this list, a lot of them carry low BABIPs and numbers that are neither in line with their previous seasons nor our 2015 expectations. Injuries have derailed the seasons of Lucroy and Beltre, while Odor has a great prospect track record, and while they may have failed initially, there's still a lot to like. Speaking of Odor, he's 4-for-5 with a homer and a walk in his last two games and though he's just 21, the upside is still considerable and he could be available in your leagues... Hamilton was 0-for-4 with a walk on Wednesday and is batting just .223/.268/.298, but that didn't stop him from stealing a pair of bases to give him 35 on the season. Just imagine if/when he can get on base at a .320 clip. 100 steals? Easily... On the pitching side, as a Dodgers fan, I am still very interested to see how former Dodgers prospect De La Rosa settles in. It could be as a no. 3 starter or even an elite closer given his electric stuff. DLR had two ugly starts to begin June, leaving him with a 5.84 ERA, but in his last 15 IP over two starts, he's allowed just one run to shave that down to 4.96. For the year, you have to like these numbers: 94.1 mph average fastball, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Now if he can just drive down that 1.4 HR/9... One last note on Carlos Carrasco. I picked him to be this year's Corey Kluber, and while that has yet to come to fruition, not too many starters have a 10.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.

The All-Regression-Is-Coming Team

C Nick Hundley, COL
1B Mitch Moreland, TEX
2B Dee Gordon, MIA
SS Yunel Escobar, WAS
3B Jimmy Paredes, BAL
OF Chris Colabello, TOR
OF Joey Butler, TB
OF Brock Holt, BOS
SP Chi Chi Gonzalez, TEX
SP Nick Martinez, TEX
SP Hector Santiago, LAA
RP Joakim Soria, DET

Hundley has a .373 BABIP and 5.5 BB%. Fortunately the Rockies appear to see Wilin Rosario as a first baseman going forward... In looking at his recent performance, it appears the regression is already here for Mitch Moreland... Guys with Gordon's speed can maintain a higher than average BABIP, but .422? And a 3.2 BB%? Bottom line though is that he should hit enough to stay in the leadoff spot and steal 50+ bases, but he's not going to keep hitting .350-plus... Escobar's .368 BABIP is 62 points above career mark and he's 32... When a .207 career hitter like Paredes is batting .308 with a 3.7 BB%, one should be skeptical... Colabello sports a .891 OPS, but also a .453 BABIP and the Twins of all teams gave up on him this offseason... Butler has had some solid minor league seasons, so there is some late-bloomer possibility here, but he also has a 4.3 BB% and .434 BABIP... Holt was decent last year and given improvement in his BB% from 6.7 to 12.2, he may be another Justin Turner... Chi Chi has a 2.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9, so his last start shouldn't have been a surprise... Martinez has already recorded 11 quality starts despite a 5.3 K/9. A 4.00+ ERA the rest of the way wouldn't be a huge surprise, but he's a quality pitcher from what I've seen... He may be better than we think, but for Hector Santiago, a 52.7 FB% has resulted in a 1.3 HR/9, but he's somehow maintained a 2.68 ERA. Hard to see that continuing with all the home runs... For Joakim Soria, a 1.3 BB/9 has helped mitigate an awful 2.3 HR/9. He's vulnerable to losing his job, but to whom? Joba Chamberlain?