Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier
32-Year-Old Second Baseman2B
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Dozier had a slow start with a .217 average and .689 OPS through June. With the Twins falling out of contention, he was traded to the Dodgers at the end of July. He shuffled in and out of the lineup, finishing with just a .182 average and .650 OPS in the NL. Despite his poor numbers, it's hard to find much of a drop-off in his advanced metrics. Dozier had nearly identical strikeout rates and hard-hit rates. He still draws walks at a good clip (11.1%) and still has above-average power for a middle infielder (21 home runs). Dozier is a subpar defensive second baseman (despite a 2017 Gold Glove), and ultimately was forced to settle for a one-year, $9 million deal with the Nationals in free agency. It was only two years ago he was among the elite power sources at his position and he has stolen 12-plus bases every year since 2013, so a bounce-back is possible at 31 with ample playing time in Washington. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Nationals in January of 2019.
Smashes 20th homer
2BWashington Nationals  
September 25, 2019
Dozier went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in a 5-2 victory against the Phillies on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
This was the 32-year-old's first home run since Aug. 18 and also his 20th long ball of the season, making it the sixth straight campaign he's reached that benchmark. He is batting .234 with 39 extra-base hits, 48 RBI, 52 runs and three steals in 411 at-bats this season.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
8
4
30
30
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
3
2
19
12
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+14%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .855 498 75 20 52 6 .270 .373 .481
Since 2017vs Right .749 1321 166 55 163 25 .233 .321 .428
2019vs Left .900 136 19 7 19 1 .280 .375 .525
2019vs Right .719 346 35 13 31 2 .221 .327 .393
2018vs Left .643 194 22 2 8 3 .209 .330 .313
2018vs Right .718 438 59 19 64 9 .218 .295 .423
2017vs Left 1.057 168 34 11 25 2 .331 .423 .634
2017vs Right .794 537 72 23 68 14 .252 .339 .456
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+8%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+17%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+6%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .810 885 118 35 111 13 .247 .349 .461
Since 2017Away .748 934 123 40 104 18 .238 .322 .426
2019Home .836 224 23 10 27 2 .251 .371 .465
2019Away .716 258 31 10 23 1 .227 .314 .402
2018Home .675 312 38 7 37 4 .214 .298 .377
2018Away .717 320 43 14 35 8 .217 .313 .404
2017Home .916 349 57 18 47 7 .276 .381 .535
2017Away .800 356 49 16 46 9 .266 .337 .463
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Stat Review
How does Brian Dozier compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.58
 
BB Rate
12.7%
 
K Rate
21.8%
 
BABIP
.271
 
ISO
.192
 
AVG
.238
 
OBP
.340
 
SLG
.430
 
OPS
.771
 
wOBA
.341
 
Exit Velocity
88.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.8%
 
Barrels/PA
4.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Brian Dozier
Games Played By Position: 2020 Eligibility Notes
54 days ago
Clay Link looks at appearances by position and makes note of multi-position eligibility and lost eligibility for 2020.
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66 days ago
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Postseason Cheatsheet
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67 days ago
67 days ago
Jeff Erickson's quick postseason ranks.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
92 days ago
Brandon Nimmo is back and Jan Levine feels he's worth a significant investment based on the early returns.
Oak's Corner: Free Agent Pickups for the Final Kick
94 days ago
Scott Jenstad talks about the breakout season of Austin Meadows, who has used his first full season in Tampa to blossom into a star with a 26-homer, 10-steal season in only 118 games.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Dozier didn't repeat his AL-record 42 home runs for a second baseman, but had the second best season of his career by hitting 34 home runs and winning his first Gold Glove. He drew more walks (11.1 percent from 8.8 percent) but his 20 percent strikeout rate was identical to what he produced in 2016. Dozier rode a career-best .300 BABIP to a career-best .271 average. His batted-ball profile has improved over the past couple seasons, so he shouldn't revert back to his career .276 BABIP, but some slight batting average regression should be expected. He should continue running while frequently hitting in the leadoff spot where he's been most comfortable even though his power may play better later in the order. This placement has allowed him to produce four straight 100-plus run seasons, and there is no reason to expect a dropoff. Among second basemen, only Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez can keep up with Dozier's reliable production in the four major counting stats.
Dozier has become one of the top fantasy options at second base due to his surging power and added speed. He was having a typical season through the first half (14 home runs, .786 OPS) but surged in the second half with 28 home runs and a .990 OPS over his last 72 games, finishing with 42 homers (the most ever for an AL second baseman). While that home run total may look like a fluke given the large leap from his previous career high (28), there are reasons to think he can approach that level again. Dozier has seen his slugging percentage increase every season in the majors and most of his other statistical measures were in line with his career, although he did have a high 18.4 percent HR/FB rate. Dozier doesn't draw walks at a great rate and strikes out a little too often, which makes his batting average a risk, but he should continue running while frequently hitting in the leadoff spot where he's been most comfortable.
Dozier offers a rare combination of speed and power at second base and has become a consistent fantasy producer the past three seasons. He looked set to have a career year after hitting 19 home runs while slashing .256/.328/.513 at midseason, but struggled after the All-Star break by hitting just nine home runs with a .280 on-base percentage while slugging just .359. Dozier improved as a fielder after he struggled at times with his defense the past two seasons. He doesn't draw walks at a great rate and strikes out a little too often, which makes his batting average a risk. Dozier also saw a slight decline in stolen-base attempts last season, which could continue if he moves lower in the order as the Twins may have better options in the top two spots, where he spent most of 2015. However, those are minor risks as Dozier looks set for another season in his prime as Minnesota's starting second baseman.
Dozier showed that his 2013 breakout season was no fluke as he was one of just five players with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases last year. Dozier nearly duplicated his 2013 stats, but he had several positive developments -- specifically, more home runs and stolen bases as he played nine more games. He scored 112 runs as he hit first or second in the batting order almost all season. He also increased his walk rate to 12.6% from 8.6% in 2013. Perhaps the only negative was that he took a slight step back in the field as he doubled his errors (15) at second base and had a below average season by most defensive metrics. Still, his glove is seen as strong enough to keep his bat at second base. His 112 runs scored may not sustainable as he's not a high OBP player, and he could be dropped to the middle of the order, but otherwise Dozier looks set to be a top fantasy option again at second base in 2015.
Dozier revived his career by moving to second base last season, resulting in improved defense to go with good power at the plate. He disappointed in 2012 as a rookie as he hit just .234/.271/.332 and struggled with his defense at shortstop where his range was inadequate. The move to second base improved his defense as he made just six errors and was 11th in UZR among regular second basemen. He also improved at the plate by hitting .244/.312/.414 with 18 home runs. Dozier improved his walk rate (eight percent of plate appearances) which was more in line with his minor league career. He hit for some power in the minors, so his 18 home runs were not a fluke, and he also has decent speed with 14 stolen bases. He'll enter his prime next season at age 26 as Minnesota's starting second baseman and offers a valuable power-speed combination for a middle infielder.
After hitting hitting .318/.384/.502 at Double-A in 2011, Dozier looked like a potential shortstop of the future for the Twins. He was called up after a strong first month at Triple-A and given the starting shortstop job. He started off hot by hitting .298 with two home runs in his first 11 games, but cooled off quickly at the plate and was hitting just .234/.271/.332 before he was demoted in August. He also struggled with his defense, making 15 errors in 83 games with a -1.2 UZR. His range was not seen as adequate enough to play shortstop and the Twins moved him to second base in winter ball. The truth is he was likely overrated as a prospect as he will be 26 years old this season, and had fewer than 400 at-bats above High-A before he was given an everyday job in the majors. He has some pop (eight homers last year) and speed (25 stolen bases in 2011) and drew walks at a good clip before last year. Dozier still could carve out a major league role at second base, but will likely need to prove himself for a long stretch at Triple-A.
Dozier had a strong minor league season that could put him in position to make an impact in the majors with the Twins as early as 2012. Dozier hit .322/.423/.472 at High-A Fort Myers and then duplicated that performance by hitting .318/.384/.502 in a tough hitting environment at Double-A New Britain. He followed that up by hitting .298/.358/.454 with three home runs in 26 games in the Arizona Fall League. Dozier primarily played shortstop but also saw time at second base. It's not clear if he has the range to start at shortstop in the majors. However, his bat could eventually make him Minnesota's solution at shortstop as he has some pop (nine homers last year), strong plate discipline (66:55 K:BB ratio) and speed (25 stolen bases). He'll begin the season at Double-A, but could reach the majors in a utility role this summer. He's a prospect to grab in deeper keeper leagues.
More Fantasy News
Losing work to Cabrera
2BWashington Nationals  
September 4, 2019
Dozier is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Mets, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting Tuesday
2BWashington Nationals  
September 3, 2019
Dozier isn't in the starting lineup for Tuesday's game against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Idle again Monday
2BWashington Nationals  
September 2, 2019
Dozier is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Mets.
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Not starting Sunday
2BWashington Nationals  
September 1, 2019
Dozier is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Retreats to bench
2BWashington Nationals  
August 27, 2019
Dozier isn't in the starting lineup for Tuesday's game against Baltimore.
ANALYSIS
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