Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Mets
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Lugo had his best season yet in his fourth year in the majors, his first one spent entirely in the bullpen. While his 2.70 ERA was marginally behind his numbers in 2016 and 2018, his 2.70 FIP and 3.24 xFIP were each career bests. His 5.1% walk rate was likewise a career low, while his excellent 33.1% strikeout rate smashed his previous career high of 25.1%. With Edwin Diaz falling far short of expectations, Lugo even picked up six saves. The Mets want Diaz to be the closer they expected when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and there is talk that Lugo might be stretched out as a starter this spring. If Diaz struggles for the second straight year, newly-signed Dellin Betances looks like the most likely beneficiary. Lugo can still offer value in rotisserie leagues due to his heavy workload (80 innings) and high strikeout rate, just don't expect him to top last year's saves total. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#350
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Mets in January of 2020.
Hammered for six runs
PNew York Mets
September 27, 2020
Lugo (3-4) allowed six runs on five hits and two walks across 1.2 innings Sunday, striking out one and taking the loss against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
Despite the Mets scoring three runs in the first two innings, Lugo coughed up five runs through 1.2 innings and was tagged with another run after he left the contest. The poor outing shot his season ERA from 3.82 to 5.15 across 36.2 innings this season. Lugo also finished the season with a solid 47:10 K:BB.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
38
Last 10 Games
50
Last 5 Games
71
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-19%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .189 397 111 29 68 12 1 12
Since 2018vs Right .234 475 142 23 104 14 2 13
2020vs Left .246 71 21 4 16 1 0 4
2020vs Right .260 77 25 4 19 4 1 4
2019vs Left .167 129 41 8 20 4 1 4
2019vs Right .211 185 63 8 36 6 0 4
2018vs Left .184 197 49 17 32 7 0 4
2018vs Right .245 213 54 11 49 4 1 5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-69%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-85%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 1.51 0.78 113.0 8 3 7 11.2 1.7 0.9
Since 2018Away 4.80 1.36 105.0 5 9 5 9.8 2.8 1.2
2020Home 1.40 0.72 19.1 3 0 1 12.1 1.9 1.4
2020Away 9.35 2.08 17.1 0 4 2 10.9 3.1 2.6
2019Home 1.56 0.67 40.1 4 2 4 12.7 1.3 0.9
2019Away 3.86 1.13 39.2 3 2 2 10.7 2.3 0.9
2018Home 1.52 0.88 53.1 1 1 2 9.6 1.9 0.7
2018Away 3.94 1.29 48.0 2 3 1 8.6 3.2 0.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.70
 
K/9
11.5
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
2.0
 
Fastball
93.4 mph
 
ERA
5.15
 
WHIP
1.36
 
BABIP
.362
 
GB/FB
2.26
 
Left On Base
72.2%
 
Exit Velocity
83.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
2361 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.8%
 
Swinging Strike
13.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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75 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds.
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Bounces back with quality start
PNew York Mets
September 23, 2020
Lugo evened his record at 3-3 during the Mets' 5-2 win Tuesday, limiting the Rays to two runs (one earned) on four hits and a walk while striking out seven in 6.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Knocked around in short start
PNew York Mets
September 17, 2020
Lugo allowed six runs on eight hits and no walks in 1.2 innings against Philadelphia on Thursday, striking out three. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Handed loss Saturday
PNew York Mets
September 13, 2020
Lugo (2-3) allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out five across 5.1 innings Friday as he took the loss against the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
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Grabs win, avoids injury
PNew York Mets
September 5, 2020
Lugo gave up one earned run over five innings and picked up the win Saturday against the Phillies. Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Lugo underwent a precautionary X-ray on his right hand after being struck by a batted ball on the final pitch of his outing, but the exam was negative.
ANALYSIS
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Fans seven in start
PNew York Mets
August 30, 2020
Lugo allowed one run on four hits and two walks over 3.2 innings Sunday, striking out seven in the loss to the Yankees in the second game of the doubleheader. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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