NBA Waiver Wire: Time to Add D-Wade?

NBA Waiver Wire: Time to Add D-Wade?

This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.

A few high-value adds headline the player pool for Week 8, and both are familiar names. It's probably the first time in almost 15 years that Dwyane Wade was mentioned in a waiver wire article, but that was mostly because he was already rostered on draft day. Danny Green has been a waiver wire staple for years, though we've reached the point where he should be rostered in enough leagues that he no longer qualifies.

In terms of the schedule, another normal week for the NBA. Only two teams have two-game weeks, the Celtics and 76ers, and everyone else plays three or four. No single day is exceptionally busy. There are slightly fewer teams than usual playing four games, minimizing the harm in starting a player with only two or three games, and increasing the advantage to starting several players with four games. The teams with four games are: the Nets, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pistons, Pelicans, Knicks, Spurs and Raptors.

As always, the players in this article must be rostered in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues. Players are listed in the order in which I recommend adding them, assuming they are equally good fits for your team.

Adds for All Leagues

Dwyane Wade, Heat (38 percent rostered)
Wade's 2017-18 was, let's go with "weird". He was one of several players whose Fantasy value – and, in some cases, reputations and entire careers – was tarnished by association with the pre-trade-deadline Cavaliers. So, let's ignore last season for a moment,

A few high-value adds headline the player pool for Week 8, and both are familiar names. It's probably the first time in almost 15 years that Dwyane Wade was mentioned in a waiver wire article, but that was mostly because he was already rostered on draft day. Danny Green has been a waiver wire staple for years, though we've reached the point where he should be rostered in enough leagues that he no longer qualifies.

In terms of the schedule, another normal week for the NBA. Only two teams have two-game weeks, the Celtics and 76ers, and everyone else plays three or four. No single day is exceptionally busy. There are slightly fewer teams than usual playing four games, minimizing the harm in starting a player with only two or three games, and increasing the advantage to starting several players with four games. The teams with four games are: the Nets, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pistons, Pelicans, Knicks, Spurs and Raptors.

As always, the players in this article must be rostered in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues. Players are listed in the order in which I recommend adding them, assuming they are equally good fits for your team.

Adds for All Leagues

Dwyane Wade, Heat (38 percent rostered)
Wade's 2017-18 was, let's go with "weird". He was one of several players whose Fantasy value – and, in some cases, reputations and entire careers – was tarnished by association with the pre-trade-deadline Cavaliers. So, let's ignore last season for a moment, and instead turn to 2016-17, when Wade finished as a top-70 Fantasy player averaging 29.9 minutes per game for the Bulls. He scored 18.3 points per game, with 4.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He was starting to get old, and his production wasn't what it used to be, but Wade was still very much Fantasy-relevant.

Well, in that context, Wade's current, four-game stretch -- during which he averaged 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists -- doesn't seem like an aberration. Wade averaged 25.7 minutes over the first nine games of the season, before taking paternity leave, and his numbers during that window were borderline-rosterable in standard leagues. Sure, this could be a random hot streak, but there is a chance Wade still has a lot left in the tank – and that chance is worth an immediate add.

Danny Green, Raptors (51 percent rostered)
For the purposes of this article, I use CBS leagues as a reference point and, CBS managers, you've let me down. I've written Fantasy waiver wire articles for years, focusing on a variety of host sites throughout that time. Generally speaking, CBS managers are the first ones to pick up a breakout performer, and the best at knowing which struggling players to drop. So how is it that Danny Green qualifies for this article? He's a top-75 player this season, averaging 28.8 minutes, 2.5 threes, 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks. CBS Fantasy community, I expect more from you.

Alec Burks, Cavaliers (13 percent rostered)
The Cavaliers traded away Kyle Korver last week and got Burks back in the return. In his first two games, he's averaged 25.0 minutes, 14.0 points and 6.0 rebounds. That's enough to warrant mention here, though I'm highly suspicious. I'm actually more interested in David Nwaba, who's missed the last four games but could return soon. My hope – and I don't have any evidence to support this – is that the Cavs were hoping to open up extra minutes for Nwaba with the trade, and that a healthy Nwaba will interfere with Burks' role. Nwaba is a mediocre scorer who provides solid rebounding and steals production, if the minutes are there.

Josh Jackson, Suns (50 percent rostered)
Look, I'm not happy about it either, but the reality of the situation is that Jackson warrants rostering as long as either Devin Booker (hamstring) or T.J. Warren (ankle) are out. Both of them could be back as soon as early this week, but the way the NBA handles injury reporting, they could also be out a lot longer. Josh Jackson has not been a good NBA player – in fact, he's been quite bad thus far. Here's a nice twitter thread from two weeks ago summarizing his early-season woes.

But situation often trumps ability, especially in short-term circumstances like this. Warren missed both of the last two games, while Booker missed the first and was limited in the second. In those two games, Jackson averaged 34 minutes, 11.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.5 blocks. His shooting efficiency was abysmal, but there's enough value in those counting stats that he should be starting in almost all leagues every game that one of those two players is out.

Doug McDermott, Pacers (4 percent rostered)
McDermott's seen a surge in activity since Victor Oladipo (knee) went down, averaging 21.1 minutes without Oladipo, compared to 15.9 with him. The Pacers were initially treating Oladipo as game-to-game, but they have now declared him out indefinitely. With the prospect of a lengthier absence, McDermott has a window to impact the Fantasy landscape.

He's mostly valuable as a source of scoring and threes – similar to players like Terrence Ross, Bryn Forbes, and nearly a half-dozen others. All of those players are prone to hot and cold streaks that cause drastic swings in their Fantasy value. On average, McDermott is actually a worse pickup than many of those players, as he provides almost no value outside of threes and points (he'll help in the efficiency categories, but hurt everywhere else). Nonetheless, he warrants highlighting here because he is new to the list, while players like Ross and Forbes and their cohort have been mentioned as other recommendations for much of the season.

Other recommendations:Jordan Clarkson, Cavaliers (55 percent rostered); Bam Adebayo, Heat (50 percent rostered); Terrence Ross, Magic (44 percent rostered); Allonzo Trier, Knicks (33 percent rostered); J.J. Barea, Mavericks (37 percent rostered)

New York Knicks

Trey Burke, Knicks (39 percent rostered); Damyean Dotson, Knicks (18 percent rostered); Emmanuel Mudiay, Knicks (45 percent rostered)

Noah Vonleh is too widely rostered to qualify for this section, and I have enough confidence in Allonzo Trier that I left him in the Adds for All Leagues section above, but what I'm about to say applies to them too.

Don't give up on the Knicks. It's been frustrating, I know. But, unlike the Kings of yesteryear, this is not a case of managerial incompetence. This is a very logical strategy, and it is likely to shift to a new phase soon. These five Knicks players have all seen massive shifts in their values because of the constantly changing rotations, and all five of them would have value in all leagues if they could be guaranteed a consistent role of 25-plus minutes going forward. Not all of them will get that. But, at some point, probably pretty soon, the Knicks will stop all the constant changes and settle into a more regular rotation – that won't mean a permanent rotation, but it will mean that they stop trying something new every three or four games.

Not all of these players will end up having long-term Fantasy value, but some will. And it's worth keeping track of the Knicks rotation, and adding the guys getting the most minutes until the situation settles down. For now, Mudiay may be worth a dart after a big game Saturday against the Bucks. Trey Burke also sprained his knee in that game and will miss at least one game in Week 8.

Fool's Gold

Popular pickups who should be avoided in most settings.

Ryan Arcidiacono, Bulls
Arcidiacono had the two best games of his career last week. After back-to-back games of 22 points and a whole lotta threes, rebounds, assists and steals, the excitement was understandable. But the large workload was nothing new. In the nine games before the mini-break-out, he averaged 32.7 per game. Furthermore, the timing is terrible, as Kris Dunn (knee) is finally nearing a return to action, and Dunn's availability will significantly limit Arcidiacono's minutes. Arcidiacono followed the two great games with two Fantasy duds, so much of the enthusiasm has already waned, but if anyone is still on the fence about adding or cutting him, they can hop down now. He's a decent source of threes, assists and steals in very deep leagues, but he should not be rostered in most formats.

Mason Plumlee, Nuggets
Plumlee has been added in a ton of leagues after averaging 1.6 steals and 1.7 blocks over his past seven games. Those defensive contributions are absolutely enough to warrant a roster spot, no matter how deficient they may be elsewhere. The problem is that this production isn't remotely sustainable. Over his first 15 games he averaged only 1.0 steal and 0.5 blocks. He's played fewer than 16 minutes in more games than he's played at least 20. Plumlee is not worth adding.

Deep League Special

Stanley Johnson, Pistons (15 percent rostered)
Johnson, a 2015 lottery pick out of Arizona, has never really done much at the NBA level. He's received preseason hype as a potential sleeper in three consecutive seasons, but has yet to finish inside the top-200. That said, he's cracked the top-130 (the "Mendoza line" for a 10-team league) over his last two weeks.

In three of his past four games, Johnson played at least 23 minutes and scored at least 14 points. Now, the reason he's in the "deep league" section is because of that pesky fourth game – an eight-points-in-19-minutes Fantasy dud. Going through his recent game logs, they're peppered with a bunch of good games with relatively high minutes, as well as some poor games with minutes stuck in the teens. These games average out to a very good deep-league pickup, but until Johnson becomes more consistent, standard league managers will be better off letting him be someone else's problem.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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