This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.
The Week 10 waiver wire is dominated by high-upside, speculative adds. There are several players like Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis, and Kevin Knox, who could each provide several weeks of top-70 value, or who could be back on the waiver wire by the end of next week. For each of them, we just don't have enough information to be certain of what to expect.
As always, I list these speculative adds in the order I recommend adding them. However, especially when it comes to this type of high-upside speculative prospect, you have to make the decisions that are right for you and your roster. It is really unlikely that all three of Lyles, Portis, and Knox will achieve their best-case scenario.
In fact, I'd say it's much more likely that all of them are dropped before Christmas than that two of them reach that top-70 range over the course of a month. I still think each is worth adding, but most rosters don't have room for three low-floor waiver guys. If you need a season-long add, then Lyles is not your guy, even though I think he has the highest ceiling and is the most likely to hit his max. If you want Knox, don't pass on him just because I put him below some other guys available in your league.
As always, we'll focus on players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Trey Lyles, Nuggets (13 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: DAL,
The Week 10 waiver wire is dominated by high-upside, speculative adds. There are several players like Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis, and Kevin Knox, who could each provide several weeks of top-70 value, or who could be back on the waiver wire by the end of next week. For each of them, we just don't have enough information to be certain of what to expect.
As always, I list these speculative adds in the order I recommend adding them. However, especially when it comes to this type of high-upside speculative prospect, you have to make the decisions that are right for you and your roster. It is really unlikely that all three of Lyles, Portis, and Knox will achieve their best-case scenario.
In fact, I'd say it's much more likely that all of them are dropped before Christmas than that two of them reach that top-70 range over the course of a month. I still think each is worth adding, but most rosters don't have room for three low-floor waiver guys. If you need a season-long add, then Lyles is not your guy, even though I think he has the highest ceiling and is the most likely to hit his max. If you want Knox, don't pass on him just because I put him below some other guys available in your league.
As always, we'll focus on players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Trey Lyles, Nuggets (13 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: DAL, at LAC
The Nuggets' apparently decided it would be fun if everyone got hurt at the same time. The most important injuries are Paul Millsap (hip) and Gary Harris (toe), though Will Barton's (groin) ongoing absence is also impactful. Barton could return any day, Harris is expected to miss at least the next three to four weeks, and Millsap is expected to miss the next four-to-six weeks. All these injuries make several Nuggets viable waiver prospects -- including Monte Morris (20 percent rostered) -- but Lyles is the highest priority pickup.
Lyles, a power forward, should be prioritized over Morris, a combo guard, in part because PF Millsap is supposed to miss more time than SG Harris. Lyles had an opportunity last season to show how productive he could be with Millsap out, and he shined. Millsap missed 44 games, and Lyles was a useful fantasy producer for the entire window, but it was highlighted by a 19-game stretch during which Lyles provided top-80 production. Both Lyles and Morris are great pickups, but I'd much prefer Lyles. Morris would rank behind Portis as the third player in this column if I wasn't trying to save space by lumping him in with Lyles.
Bobby Portis, Bulls (50 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: at OKC, BKN, ORL, at CLE
Portis is in a tough spot, depth chart-wise, when it comes to fantasy. Even though I like Portis' game, and it translates very well to fantasy, he's not good enough to be an important part of the long-term plan for a team that is this far away from being good. Portis benefits from the fact that the Bulls are banishing Jabari Parker from the rotation, opening up his 30.1 minutes per game. But the team still has to find time for Lauri Markkanen and rookie Wendell Carter, both of whom figure very prominently in the Bulls' long-term plans.
Portis has only played two games since returning from a knee injury, and both came with a minutes restriction. If he can work his way up to 28-plus – or hopefully 30-plus – minutes per game, he could be a stud. In 2017-18, Portis averaged 22.5 minutes per game. If you prorate his production last season out to 30 minutes per game, it is shockingly identical to Tobias Harris' 2014-15 season. In case you don't have an encyclopedic knowledge of the History of Tobias Harris: he finished that season inside fantasy's top-55. Portis may never play that many minutes, and his production might not scale if he does, but that is some crazy upside for a waiver pickup.
Kevin Knox, Knicks (45 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: PHO, at PHI, ATL
It's going to take more than two games for Knox to convince me he has standard league value, but, boy have his last two games been good. In 41 minutes against the Hornets he scored 26 and grabbed 15 rebounds. Next time out, he went 19 and seven while adding two blocks. He also chimed in seven threes across those two games. Knox has been straight-up bad for fantasy pretty much all season – generously, those were his fourth and fifth useful fantasy games, though for most leagues they were probably more like his second and third. He still ranks near the bottom on my running list of Knicks who will be good pickups if/when their rotation stabilizes. That said, it is very easy to imagine that this is the start of Knox's breakout, a la Donovan Mitchell last season.
Mitchell is obviously an extreme best-case scenario, but there are enough similarities to warrant attention. Both are late lottery picks who flashed exciting talents during Summer League, generating some offseason buzz. Both started the season as actively bad fantasy producers. The breakout came earlier in the season for Mitchell, but it followed the same pattern. He kicked things off with an inefficient high-scoring game that reinvigorate the preseason buzz. Then he alternated between very good and very bad games for about 2 weeks. Within three weeks of that first flash, he was in the starting lineup and rostered in almost all leagues.
I'm not saying Knox is about to become a rookie of the year candidate, and he still has to combat the ongoing Knicks rotation turmoil, but his last two weeks have really reminded my of Mitchell during that period last season. Knox is definitely worth a speculative add if you have someone you're already considering dropping, especially with the Knicks playing five games in the next eight days.
OG Anunoby, Raptors (3 percent rostered)
Next week's schedule: IND, CLE, at PHI
Someone is going to benefit from Jonas Valanciunas (thumb) missing the next four weeks. The potential candidates are Anunoby, Greg Monroe (10 percent rostered), and, umm, Chris Boucher (0 percent rostered)? Serge Ibaka is already playing 27.4 minutes per game, so even if his workload increases, there is still a large portion of Valanciunas' 18.8 left to go around. In Wednesday's game, when Valanciunas left early after sustaining the injury, Monroe played the exact same number of minutes he had the previous game.
Boucher has spent most of the season in the G-League, so Anunoby is my pick for the biggest gainer here. Unfortunately, Anunoby is much better in real life than fantasy, so he'd probably only be an option in deeper leagues. If his minutes are about to shoot up, he could provide a decent smattering of points, rebounds, threes and steals. Monroe would have much more fantasy value if he's the one to step into Valanciunas' role, I'm just not sure if that will be how this shakes out.
Other recommendations: Justise Winslow, Heat (48 percent rostered); Josh Hart, Lakers (49 percent rostered); Emmanuel Mudiay, Knicks (21 percent rostered); Kelly Olynyk, Heat (33 percent rostered); JaMychal Green, Grizzlies (33 percent rostered); Allen Crabbe, Nets (48 percent rostered); Mason Plumlee, Nuggets (17 percent rostered); Josh Jackson, Suns (32 percent rostered); Tony Parker, Hornets (6 percent rostered); Tim Frazier, Pelicans (23 percent rostered)
