FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Sundays tend to be light, but this one is unusually small. We have just five games in total, with four making up the night slate. These are actually my favorite slates to play because we have smaller player pools to deal with. That helps us to key in on everyone and provides a much better idea of who the values are. With that in mind, let's break down the games.  

Slate Overview 

NYK vs. BRK: We have two uptempo games and two slow games, as this one falls under the latter. We're looking at a 212-point total with Brooklyn entering this matchup as a 1.5-point favorite. That should make this a very fantasy-friendly game with many of the Nets players coming in as great options with their two best players injured.  

WSH vs. SAC: This game might be nuts. Any time the Wizards are on the slate, you have to get players in against them. That's because they rank fourth in pace while allowing 121 points per game. That's easily the worst mark in the NBA and it's not like Sacramento's 20th-ranked defense is much better. The projected 240-point total and 2.5-point spread in favor of the Wizards only adds to the intrigue and this is the game we definitely want to target.  

DEN vs. PHX: Denver has been playing at the slowest pace in the NBA, which is scary considering they rank third in defensive efficiency. That's why we're likely to see fewer possessions in this game than any other, making it tough to trust for fantasy purposes with the Nuggets entering this matchup as a projected 8.5-point favorite.  

LAC vs. NOP: We're looking at the Clippers entering this matchup as a 12-point favorite with a total of 234. That sky-high number actually surprises me, as we anticipate this stingy Los Angeles defense slowing down the shorthanded New Orleans offense. What's also annoying is that Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have been worse in terms of fantasy since they started playing together and it's becoming evident they'll hurt each other's value.  

Positional Breakdown 

PG: It's rare to say this, but the point guard position is horrible on this slate. The highest-priced player is Jamal Murray at $7,200, followed by Lonzo Ball at $6,000. The only other guys worth considering are Patrick Beverley, Isaiah Thomas, Frank Ntilikina and Cory Joseph. I'd go cheap here and ride the studs at other positions. 

SG: This is the deepest position of the day. We have big names up top like Bradley BealJrue Holiday and Devin Booker, with players like Spencer Dinwiddie, RJ Barrett, Lou Williams and Buddy Hield filling out the $7,000 range. If you're looking for cheaper options, consider Garrett Temple, J.J. Redick and Gary Harris in the $5,000 range.  

SF: Paul George and Brandon Ingram are both above $9,000, with no other player north of $7,500. Kelly Oubre, Marcus Morris and Will Barton make up the mid-tier at this position, while Harrison Barnes, Joe Harris, Davis Bertans and Kenrich Williams represent nice values.  

PF: Kawhi Leonard is sitting at $9,800 while Julius Randle is second at $8,000. Jarrett Allen, Paul Millsap and Richaun Holmes fill out the $6,000 range while Dario Saric, Frank Kaminsky and Nicolo Melli make up the value options.  

C: Nikola Jokic is the cream of the crop at $10,000, with Montrezl Harrell, Mitchell Robinson and Thomas Bryant all between $6,000-$7,000 below. The cheap guys are risky, with guys like Moritz Wagner, Jaxson Hayes and Ivica Zubac down there.

Injuries to Monitor 

Kyrie Irving/Caris LeVert (BRK): Irving has already been ruled out for this game due to a shoulder issue. Spencer Dinwiddie has been starting in his absence and has been fantastic. LeVert is also out for a month due to a thumb issue and that adds value to Dinwiddie, Garrett Temple and Harris.  

De'Aaron Fox/Marvin Bagley (SAC): Both these youngsters are dealing with long-term injuries, with Cory Joseph and Richaun Holmes starting for them. Both of those guys continue to be nice values.  

Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC): Bogdanovic has been superb since Fox went down, but he's now dealing with a hamstring issue. If he sits out, look for Buddy Hield, Joseph and Harrison Barnes to take on more usage.  

Ricky Rubio (PHX): Rubio is dealing with a back issue and Tyler Johnson started for him on Thursday and Saturday night. If he's out, look for that to happen again along with Devin Booker picking up the most usage.  

Aron Baynes (PHX): Baynes has missed the last three games because of a hip issue, as Phoenix has decided to start Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky next to each other. Mikal Bridges has also been playing a lot more, averaging 30 minutes across his last three games.  

Derrick Favors/Zion Williamson/Josh Hart (NOP): Favors is out due to a back issue and Williamson remains out because of knee surgery. With those two guys out, Kenrich Williams, Jaxson Hayes and Nicolo Melli all gain serious value. In the absence of Hart, J.J. Redick and E'Twaun Moore have also been playing a lot more. 

Elite Players 

Brandon Ingram (NOP) vs. Paul George (LAC) 

These are the clear-cut options at small forward and it's going to be tough to get both into your lineup. While Ingram has looked better recently, we're going to go with George. The reason for that is because of the matchup, as the Pelicans sit 26th in defensive efficiency while Ingram will have to match up with George and Leonard on the other end.  

Bradley Beal (WSH) vs. Kawhi Leonard (LAC) 

With most people likely using Nikola Jokic, this is a debate you'll surely be asking. I think the choice is pretty simple and that's to choose Bradley Beal. The reason for that is due to his recent form, as he's averaged 55 FD points per game over his last five fixtures. Kawhi hasn't really been the same since PG-13 returned either, averaging 40.7 FanDuel points since they started playing together. 

Expected Chalk 

Bradley Beal, WSH ($10,200) 

This is one of the cases where you may have to swallow the chalk. Beal has been absolutely absurd the last two weeks and that alone is going to make him highly owned. In fact, he's averaging 54.7 FanDuel points per game over his last five fixtures. It's going to be hard for people to fade that on a four-game slate, especially against a subpar Sacramento defense.  

Spencer Dinwiddie, BRK ($7,900) 

Dinwiddie has been starting in the absence of Irving, posting a usage rate just shy of 40 percent with Irving and LeVert off the floor. It's led to him scoring at least 36 FD points in every game since Irving went down and that's going to make him very highly owned below $8,000.  

Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,000) 

Jokic just posted the best game of his season on Friday, dropping 61 FanDuel points against a stingy Celtics' defense. That makes him very intriguing, but he's going to be very highly owned with no other center above $7,000 on this slate.  

Tyler Johnson, PHX ($4,200) 

If Rubio sits this game out, Johnson may be the highest-owned player on the slate. The reason for that is because he remains at $4,200 and could be looking at 30-35 minutes as the Suns' starting point guard.  

Key Values 

Joe Harris, BRK ($4,900) 

Outside of a 30-point blowout, Harris has been stellar with Irving and LeVert off the floor. In fact, Harris racked up 45 FanDuel points in his first game without those two and dropped 33 in his most recent outing. That's huge production from a player barely cracking $5,000 and he should continue to see more usage than ever against an awful Kings' defense.  

Cory Joseph, SAC ($4,900) 

With Fox, Bagley and Bogdanovic all missing this game, Joseph should be in for another heavy workload. Over his last six games, Joseph is averaging 21.2 FD points across 30 minutes of action. Joseph has also played at least 38 minutes in two of his five starts. If that continues, he'd be the best value of the day against a Washington team who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA.  

Frank Kaminsky, PHX ($4,000) 

This price tag just doesn't make sense. Starting for Baynes would make Kaminsky intriguing no matter what, but we simply can't fade him at $4,000. The reason for that is because he's averaging 24 FanDuel points over his last five games, which is actually barely above his season average. We expect a small increase in minutes and usage with Baynes and Rubio potentially out, which would only add more to Kaminsky's value.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Joel Bartilotta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Joelbartilotta Yahoo: Joelbartilotta.
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Joel Bartilotta
Joel has 15 years of Fantasy experience, and can recall riding a young Daunte Culpepper to a championship in the 2003-04 season in his inaugural fantasy year. He covers NBA, NFL, daily fantasy, EPL, and MLB for RotoWire.
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