This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got a huge slate to tackle on Monday, so let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-6) @ DET O/U: 214
IND (-6) vs. TOR O/U: 209.6
NY (-4) vs. WAS O/U: 230
ORL (-5) vs. CHI O/U: 208
CLE (-1) vs. ARL O/U: 223
MIA (-4) vs. UTA O/U 212.5
SA (-1) @ MEM O/U: 227.5
DEN (-3.5) @ PHO O/U: 216
HOU (-5.5) @ SAC O/U: 229
POR (-6) vs. NO O/U: 230
MIN (-2) @ GS O/U: 221.5
The slate provides some great tie-breakers if you're deciding between players. The POR/NO matchup is my favorite game on the slate, and I also like the numbers for HOU/SAC. I largely faded the TOR/IND game due to the back-tn-back issues, and the CHI/ORL game didn't even make my list tonight.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
The slate is littered with injury concerns, but these will be the most significant situations to keep an eye on. Ongoing injuries are excluded.
Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Gorgui Dieng ($4,600) will once again get the start if Towns misses his fourth straight game.
Pascal Siakam (groin) OUT
This is a huge loss for the Raptors and there's currently no word on a potential return date. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,500) will be called upon to absorb the minutes.
Deandre Ayton (ankle) OUT
Ricky Rubio (illness) QUESTIONABLE
Look for Aron Baynes ($4,700) to start and Elie Okobo ($3,700) to enter the starting five if Rubio can't go. Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,600) should also pick up the slack if both players remain sidelined.
Davis Bertans (quad) OUT
Rui Hachimura (groin) OUT
Moritz Wagner (ankle) OUT
Thomas Bryant (foot) OUT
Isaiah Thomas (suspension) OUT
In this scenario, one has to assume that we will see more of Isaac Bonga ($3,600) and Troy Brown Jr. ($4,800) for tonight's contest. As for Thomas' absence, Ish Smith ($4,500) should draw the start in his place.
Jonas Valanciunas (foot) QUESTIONABLE
The center may take the court today, but Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,600) will likely shift to center if he can't make it.
Carmelo Anthony (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Anthony's injury crops up in the midst of some excellent ball from Anthony, and the Trail Blazers will certainly miss his contribution. Kent Bazemore ($4,700) and Anthony Tolliver ($3,000) become good values in his absence.
Although not an injury situation, John Collins ($7,600) is eligible to return for Atlanta tonight following his suspension, although he's way too risky for cash, he could be a great DFS upside target,
ELITE PLAYERS
James Harden, HOU ($11,000) and Russell Westbrook ($8,900) @ SAC
Harden's price has now sunk below Trae Young ($11,200), but that doesn't necessarily make him any more palatable than usual. If he hits his 63 DKFP average, his 5.6x value makes him an excellent play. He 'only' had 52 DKFP in his one meeting with the Kings, but the high O/U is encouraging. If you can build with enough budget picks, I don't mind Harden tonight, and I would definitely take him over Young, who I think is too expensive. Meanwhile, Westbrook put up a similar line against the Kings and is $2,100 cheaper. While you could run with a two-player stack here and go for value elsewhere, it's a risky proposition, and I'm more inclined to just roll with Westbrook due to the cash discrepancy.
Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,200) @ DET
I won't bore you with the details, but trust me when I tell you that I drilled down into some past Embiid-Drummond face-offs, and Embiid clearly has the historic upper hand in this battle of big men. With 22 starting centers on the docket, Embiid might be perceived as expensive, but we'd be happy at this price if he goes north of 50 DKFP.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($8,400) @ GS
Based on his recent output and the matchup, Wiggins should really be considered an elite play at $8,400, and he's currently worth every penny. His nightly contributions have consistently hit around 40 DKFP, and his 63 DKFP performance against the Warriors earlier this season is a check in the plus column. Without Towns, Wiggins will be called upon to shoulder a bigger load, and he should deliver handsomely tonight.
Damian Lillard, POR ($8,300) vs. NO
This game has the best O/U on the slate and I'm going to go with Lillard, although a shot with C.J. McCollum ($6,500) certainly holds similar merit. Both guards have an excellent shot at high production against a Pelicans defense that ranks dead last in scoring defense.
Hassan Whiteside, POR ($7,900) vs. NO
Much of that also holds true with Whiteside, who is currently on an excellent three-game run. He only put up 33 DKFP against the Pelicans in their first meeting, but I don't expect his 10-game double-double streak to end here.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($6,700) vs. HOU
Hield put up 40 DKFP in his last game against the Rockets, and if he can replicate that score, he would come in at well over 6x value. Hield's ability to pop is no secret, and he could do it against Harden and Westbrook today.
Also consider: Kevin Love, CLE ($7,400), Kendrick Nunn, MIA ($6,000), Joe Ingles, UTA ($6,000)
VALUE PLAYS
The bulk of my value will come from injury pivots tonight, so please refer back to them. Here are a few other options to consider.
Marvin Bagley III, SAC ($5,700) vs. HOU
Bagley's a great example of a guy returning from injury whose salary hasn't quite caught up to his potential production. He doesn't need to do much over 30 DKFP to be worth the price here, and he's exceeded that number over his last two games.
JJ Redick, NO ($4,800) @ POR
I think there are several ways you could go in this game, but Redick comes in at an attractive price and should thrive with the pace of this matchup. While he's in the midst of a downturn in production, 30 DKFP is a doable, value-beating number that Redick could reach if his shots start to fall. With well over 30 minutes a night, the usage is there. He just needs to convert.
