This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
With only two games on Sunday, ownership will be less diversified and GPPs will also be less profitable, with tie scores appearing with a much higher frequency. Cash lineups tend to be much more straight-forward, and you have to take some variance-heavy lines if you want to make a difference in large-field events.
SLATE OVERVIEW
SA (-0.5) vs. MIA O/U: 220.5
DEN (-1.5) vs. IND O/U: 211.5
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Jamal Murray (ankle) OUT
Gary Harris (groin) OUT
Paul Millsap (knee) OUT
Since there is so little to cover today, we'll delve further into the Denver targets below, but Murray's absence had has a substantial effect on usage for many players. I feel that the Monte Morris ($5,200) pivot that we've been looking at isn't the correct way to go if recent games are any indication. I'll detail better paths in the next couple of sections.
Dejounte Murray (illness) QUESTIONABLE
The severity of Murray's illness is unclear, but both Derrick White ($4,100) and Patty Mills ($3,400) would see production increases if Murray is out.
Rudy Gay (illness) QUESTIONABLE
Lonnie Walker IV ($3,100) could be a reasonable punt play if Gay misses tonight.
ELITE PLAYERS
Nikola Jokic ($9,600) is atop the salary rankings today, but we're particularly rich with big men for such a small slate. We may be able to accommodate him, but it may not be necessary. For $800 less we could justify a move to Bam Adebayo ($8,800), and you could stand to go even further down with LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,900), It all depends on how how much money we want to lay down in the 7-8K range.
A good example of an 8K spend is DeMar DeRozan ($8,400), who put up 49.3 DKFP against the Heat a few days ago, and he's flown well above his season DKFP averages in five of his last six games. The potential absence of Rudy Gay will put a bit more pressure on his position, and I think the scenario puts DeRozan in a great spot.
Jimmy Butler ($8,200) is the obvious alternate buy in this range, and if we're looking at Butler's recent string of games, we can certainly justify adding him. His 25 DKFP performance against the Spurs a few days ago is enough to give you pause, but a potential rebound game from Butler is certainly worth a GPP consideration.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Will Barton, DEN ($7,600) vs. IND
Using a game against the Warriors as a reliable metric for output without Jamal Murray isn't ideal, but Barton is likely as safe as you'll get, especially compared to the slightly riskier options that we're going to touch on shortly. The Pacers may be without Jeremy Lamb today, which could make Indiana a slightly softer opponent, and the added responsibility with a trio of starters absent bodes well for Barton's totals.
Michael Porter Jr., DEN ($6,300) vs. IND
Porter is also another stable option for the Nuggets, although his prospects have only been apparent over the last couple of games. The Nuggets needed a solid replacement at the four in Paul Millsap's extended absence, and Gary Harris' absence created an even larger gap to fill at the wing position. Porter is versatile enough to fill needs at both of those positions, and I expect his minutes to remain in the 30-minute range for a third straight game.
VALUE PLAYS
Kendrick Nunn, MIA ($5,600) @ SA
Nunn had a brilliant game against the Spurs a few days ago, when he went off for 48 DKFP. The injury situation in Miami hasn't changed, so Nunn should continue to start at the point even if Tyler Herro makes a return today. Goran Dragic ($5,000) is always around to steal a bit of output here, but I consider him more of a GPP option and will stick with Nunn as a cash anchor.
Mason Plumlee, DEN ($5,000) vs. IND
I'd consider Plumlee more of a GPP consideration because there's still some volatility in the current injury scenario and with Michael Porter Jr.'s increased involvement, we can't necessarily depend on Plumlee as a reliable pivot for Millsap. Still, he had an admirable stat line against Golden State with 14 points and 15 rebounds, so an argument can be made that he will still come in handy while the Nuggets are short-handed.
Malik Beasley, DEN ($4,700) vs. IND
I went with Beasley on a hunch in their last game and I was rewarded with a 42 DKFP score. My hunch was based on an assumption that the Nuggets don't have much faith in Monte Morris as Jamal Murray's replacement, and Beasley has an extensive history of delivering some magic when given an opportunity.
