This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There's only one potential elimination game out of the four on Monday's slate, as the Heat have a chance to wipe out the Pacers. Indiana significantly upped its aggressiveness in Game 3 and still came up short by nine points, so it remains to be seen what else coach Nate McMillan has left in his bag of tricks.
Elsewhere, the Bucks have now looked dominant over the last pair of contests after a stunning Game 1 upset, so they could be on their way to taking a 3-1 lead. That would leave the most intriguing contests on the Western Conference end of things, as both the Rockets-Thunder and Lakers-Trail Blazers matchups have much more of an "anything can happen" feel than the two Eastern Conference tilts.
Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel has reverted to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.
Slate Overview
Here's a further look at the games with the two highest-projected totals as of early Monday morning:
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic (Projected total: 226.0 points)
The first three games of the series finished with totals of 232, 207 and 228 points, so this number is a reasonable one. Each squad has topped 120 points once, and the Bucks have scored at least 110 points in each contest. Aaron Gordon's absence due to a hamstring injury has naturally affected Orlando's offensive output, although the big man once again has a 50-50 chance of playing in Game 4.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers (Projected total: 224.5 points)
Despite the elite offensive talents on each team, the first two games of the series were significantly underwhelming from a collective scoring standpoint. The Lakers and Blazers combined for just 193 and 199 points in Games 1 and 2 before boosting that number up to 224 in Game 3. Damian Lillard hasn't been quite as efficient as he was during the seeding-game stretch, as he's shooting 41.9 percent over the first three installments of the series. With the stakes getting progressively higher and Portland down a game, this contest could feature the most aggressive offensive showing from either squad yet.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Russell Westbrook's continued absence once again leaves Damian Lillard as the clear-cut elite choice at the position, while Chris Paul and Malcolm Brogdon should once again be in for sky-high usage given the stakes for each of their teams in their respective Game 4s. Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, D.J. Augustin and Markelle Fultz are among the appealing value options.
SG: James Harden spearheads a shooting guard pool that's at full health, with Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as fine choices if you don't want to pay up for Harden. Khris Middleton, Victor Oladipo and Dennis Schroder are also solid choices who offer further savings.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are the best 1-2 punch of any position, while T.J. Warren, Danilo Gallinari, Carmelo Anthony and Eric Gordon are some of your top alternatives outside of the two five-figure salary stars. Like SG, this is also a spot with relatively good health overall.
PF: Aaron Gordon (hamstring) has been unable to take the floor yet in the series and is still a very iffy proposition. Domantas Sabonis is also out again, leaving Anthony Davis as the undisputed best player at the position and Bam Adebayo a tier below him. Robert Covington, Jeff Green and Kyle Kuzma may be the safest remaining choices otherwise.
C: Nikola Vucevic, Jusuf Nurkic and Myles Turner are the top three choices at center, while Steven Adams is a 50/50 proposition to play with his knee bruise. An absence on his part would thin out the mid-tier at the position, but it would also potentially thrust Nerlens Noel and/or Mike Muscala into viable value status.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Russell Westbrook, HOU (quadriceps)
Westbrook remains out for Game 4. Eric Gordon, Jeff Green and Danuel House could be the biggest beneficiaries of Westbrook's absence, outside of James Harden.
Steven Adams, OKC (knee)
Adams is likely to be listed as questionable with a right knee bruise that forced his early exit from Game 3. Nerlens Noel and Mike Muscala would likely handle center duties in Adams' stead if he misses Game 4, while the usage rate of the remainder of the starting five would also increase to varying degrees.
Jae Crowder, MIA (ankle)
Crowder carries a questionable tag against the Pacers in Game 4, but he notably played through the same designation in both Game 2 and Game 3.
Derrick Jones, MIA (ankle)
Jones will be listed as questionable with a left ankle sprain he suffered in Game 2.
Andre Iguodala, MIA (hip)
Iguodala is questionable with a sore left hip that also plagued him in Game 3.
Rajon Rondo, LAL (back)
Rondo is considered doubtful with the back injury he suffered while warming up for Game 3.
Aaron Gordon, ORL (hamstring)
Gordon is questionable for Game 4 with the hamstring issue that's now cost him seven games. If he's unable to suit up, Gary Clark is likely to draw the start at power forward again in his stead.
Michael Carter-Williams, ORL (foot)
Carter-Williams remains out for Game 4.
Other injuries to monitor:
Luc Mbah a Moute, HOU (knee)- OUT
Longer-term injuries of note: Nassir Little, POR; Zach Collins, POR; Domantas Sabonis, IND
Elite Players
We'll have four players sporting five-figure salaries Monday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.5K) and James Harden ($11.3K) flipping roles as the most expensive player on the slate compared to Saturday. Lakers teammates Anthony Davis ($10.9K) and LeBron James ($10.5K) are the other two players priced over $10K. All four players could easily prove worthy of the investment, as even the player that arguably has the most blowout risk, Giannis, posted 65.7 FD points in Game 3.
Damian Lillard ($9.5K), Chris Paul ($7.9K) and Malcolm Brogdon ($7.6K) are three sub-$10K players that I could see churning out elite production, with each player's team behind in their series and Brogdon's Pacers specifically on the brink of elimination.
Expected Chalk
All the players just mentioned in the previous section will be on plenty of rosters once again, as should talented complementary options coming off excellent Game 3 performances such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and CJ McCollum. Moreover, there were several value-priced players such as Jeff Green and D.J. Augustin that enjoyed particularly fruitful games Saturday, which should also be reflected in their popularity Monday.
Key Values
Danuel House, HOU vs. OKC ($4,800)
I'm not going to budge off House as a recommendation as long as a) his salary remains under $5K, and b) he continues to provide strong returns on investment. The versatile wing was at it again in Game 3, posting 26 FD points on the strength of a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double in the OT loss. House has encouragingly taken a combined 31 shot attempts over the first three installments against the Thunder and has pulled in nine and 10 rebounds over the last pair of contests. With a secure starting role and Russell Westbrook's ongoing absence Monday, House is in play once again at his very reasonable salary.
James Ennis, ORL vs. MIL ($4,400)
Game-log watchers may be immediately turned off from Ennis when seeing his 3.4 FD points in Game 3, but that of course came over a nine-minute stint on the court due to an ejection for fighting with Marvin Williams. Ennis should be right back in his starting small forward role Monday, one he'd proven very successful in prior to Saturday's debacle. He had tallied between 20.2 and 32.6 FD points in the previous eight games, including tallies of 32.6 and 25 FD points in Games 1 and 2, respectively. With his salary still a bargain and Aaron Gordon possibly out again for Orlando, I see Ennis as a relatively safe value proposition in a key game for the Magic.
Popular value plays to consider: Victor Oladipo, IND ($5,900); Dennis Schroder, OKC ($5,700); Jeff Green, HOU ($5,500); Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,400); Eric Gordon ($5,300); Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,000); D.J. Augustin, ORL ($5,000); Gary Clark, ORL ($4,400)
