FanDuel NBA: Opening Night Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Opening Night Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

The long-awaited start to the NBA regular season is upon us, and we begin with the conference champions hosting big-name opponents. Despite there being just four teams in action, there will be a who's who of NBA DFS elite on the floor, which should make for a fun night of lineup building and sweats.

Slate Overview

Philadelphia 76ers (+2.5) at Boston Celtics (-2.5) (O/U: 216.0 points)

Los Angeles Lakers (+6) at Golden State Warriors (-6) (O/U 225.0 points)

We have two pretty decent projected point totals to kick off the 2022-23 campaign, even with solid defensive teams hitting the floor. One of the factors at play in those numbers is the relatively good health each of the four clubs enjoys to open the season.

The 76ers and Celtics haven't had any turnover at key positions, so we can somewhat rely on last season's four-game series between the clubs as a guide. Boston and Philadelphia played three close, low-scoring games before a 135-87 Celtics blowout win in mid-February, with the first three meetings between the squads finishing with totals of 175, 211 and 210 points. The teams finished with identical 51-31 records before the Celtics went on to secure the Eastern Conference crown, but given the proximity in talent, the 2.5-point spread seems appropriate.

The Lakers and Warriors also have enjoyed plenty of continuity at key positions, and the only notable injuries are to L.A.'s complementary assets Dennis Schroder and Thomas Bryant. The Warriors won the four-game regular-season series by a 3-1 margin last year, including what was then viewed as a 121-114 upset by Golden State on Opening Night. All four meetings were high-scoring affairs, finishing with totals of 235, 232, 240 and 240 points.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

LeBron James, LAL (foot): PROBABLE

James is fully expected to play through his probable designation and handle his usual role.

Anthony Davis, LAL (back): PROBABLE

Davis developed some lower-back discomfort on an extended bus ride the team took to a promotional event, but he says he'll be ready to go without restrictions.

Russell Westbrook, LAL (hamstring): PROBABLE

While head coach Darvin Ham says Westbrook will be evaluated pregame before a final decision on his availability is reached, the guard's probable designation implies he'll be available for what will likely be a hefty workload considering primary backup Dennis Schroder (thumb) is out.

Thomas Bryant, LAL (thumb): OUT

With Bryant out, Damian Jones should serve as Davis' primary backup at center.

Dennis Schroder, LAL (thumb): OUT

With Schroder out, Kendrick Nunn and Austin Reaves could pick up extra minutes off the bench behind Westbrook.

Elite Players

We have four players with five-figure salaries on Tuesday's slate: LeBron James ($10,800), Joel Embiid ($10,700), Anthony Davis ($10,100) and Stephen Curry ($10,000).

James' minor foot issue aside, he's much healthier than he was most of last season when he suited up for 56 games. However, he put together an excellent season when on the floor with 30.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.1 blocks per contest, leading to an average of 53 FD points per game.

Embiid averaged 53.5 FD points per game last season and looked good during his limited preseason action. The big man had three games north of 50 FD points against the Celtics last season, including one performance of 73.5 over 40 minutes.

Davis scored 58.2 FD points against the Warriors on Opening Night a year ago, but he was limited to a modest (by his standards) 39.4 over 35 minutes in his only other meeting with Golden State.

Curry naturally brings no shortage of upside after last year's stellar championship season that saw him average 43.8 FD points per game. However, head coach Steve Kerr did emphasize recently he'd monitor his starters' minutes a bit more carefully than in the past to open the season, lending some doubt as to Curry's workload.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,800)

Tatum finished last season with an average of 44.9 FD points per game and played well this preseason, and he should naturally continue in a very high-usage role as the linchpin of the Celtics' attack.

James Harden, PHI ($8,900)

Harden struggled to a career-worst 33.0 percent success rate from deep last season, but he averaged double-digit assists (10.3) for the third time in his career. He should once again be heavily involved as both scorer and facilitator.

Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,000)

Brown put together another efficient offensive season last year, but his performances against the 76ers were a study in contrast. He failed to reach 20 FD points twice but countered those efforts with a pair of 40-plus totals.

Russell Westbrook, LAL ($7,000)

Westbrook's salary should make him very appealing, and despite the negative press that surrounded most of his first season in L.A., he finished the year strong with averages of 22.2 points (52.1 percent shooting, including 41.5 percent from three-point range), 7.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 41 FD points across his last 10 games.

Klay Thompson, LAL ($6,800)

Thompson enjoyed a great comeback season in 2021-22 after two years away, averaging 31.0 FD points per game. He should be very popular at his current salary, given that he delivered at least a 5x return in 18 regular-season/postseason games.

Key Values 

Malcolm Brogdon, BOS ($6,200)

Brogdon is projected to see a significant role off the bench in his new Celtics digs. The slightly reduced workload, combined with the opportunity to face more second-unit players, could well lead to a resurgent season for the talented but oft-injured veteran who averaged 19.1 points, 5.9 assists and 5.1 rebounds across 33.5 minutes with the Pacers last season. Brogdon could be set for a minutes load in the mid-20s at minimum, and notably put up 37 FD points in 37 minutes in his one game against Philly a year ago.

Jordan Poole, GSW vs. LAL ($6,000)

As mentioned previously, coach Steve Kerr has noted he plans to give his second unit more run this season in order to give his starters rest, which is very good news for the likes of Poole. The standout guard, who just inked a four-year extension Saturday, proved his worth last season with averages of 18.0 points, 4.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds across 30 minutes in 76 games, before averaging 27 FD points while shooting 50.8 percent, including 39.1 percent from behind the arc, in 22 postseason games. Poole also averaged 29 FD points in four meetings against the Lakers last season, including 27.9 in 25 minutes on Opening Night.

Kendrick Nunn, LAL at GSW ($4,300)

Nunn missed all of last season while rehabbing a knee injury, but if his preseason performances are any indication, he's ready to hit the ground running and pick up where he left off after a strong first two NBA campaigns. Nunn averaged 14.9 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists across 29.4 minutes across 123 games with the Heat, and he shot 48.0 percent while putting together a pair of 21-point efforts this preseason, one which came against this same Warriors squad. There's reportedly a chance Nunn could even draw the start at shooting guard Tuesday, but even if he cedes that opportunity to Patrick Beverley, Nunn is almost a lock to see extended minutes off the bench with Dennis Schroder (thumb) unavailable.

ALSO CONSIDER:  James Wiseman, GSW vs. LAL ($5,000); Derrick White, BOS vs. PHI ($4,400)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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