NBA Draft Kit: Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Dynasty leagues are the greatest challenge in fantasy sports. Not only does one have to know the player pool and properly gauge each player's value for the current season, but deep knowledge of players who have yet to play a professional game, as well as accurately projecting how players will be valued two, three and even four years down the line are necessary for sustained success. With that in mind, the 2016-17 rookie class has been ranked based on the value each player offers in dynasty leagues, factoring in each player's immediate value as well as how they project to develop in the coming years. In addition to the individual ranking, each player was rated on a five-star scale for their overall talent and the team context they find themselves in. This was done because usage and offensive system are almost as important as talent when it comes to valuing unestablished players for fantasy purposes.

1. Ben Simmons (G/F)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮✮

Simmons doesn't show up under point guard on our Sixers depth chart. We have him listed as the starting power forward and fifth option at small forward. This makes sense, as he's always listed as a forward, and he certainly looks the part of a power forward in today's NBA. However, he will serve as the Sixers' starting point guard at some point, and perhaps right away. Giannis Antetokounmpo's run as the point guard in Milwaukee helped maximize his strengths and neutralize his flaws, and that should serve as a blueprint for how the Sixers deploy Simmons. He could also work perfectly in a Draymond Green-esque role as a small-ball center in certain lineups, but the Sixers' personnel typically won't support that usage. Simmons is an excellent passer, rebounder and scorer (in that order), but like previous phenoms with his pedigree and athleticism (LeBron James and Tracy McGrady come to mind), he should turn into an efficient scorer in time, if he puts the work in. That's the only caveat. He needs to put the work in on both ends of the court as well as before, during and after practice if he is to maximize his unique natural tools (there are questions about his intangibles). He could come close to averaging a triple-double down the road. It's impossible to project what kind of defender and three-point shooter he will be, and his development in those two areas will determine whether he settles in as a top-five or a top-15 fantasy option during his prime seasons.

2. Brandon Ingram (SF)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮✮

It's possible that Ingram will come off the bench initially, but he's the most talented player on the Lakers' roster, so he'll quickly jump into a heavy-usage role during his rookie season. His shooting stroke will determine his fantasy value in year one, as he has the chance to shoot 40 percent from three-point range and 48 percent from the field while leading the Lakers in points per minute. Ingram is the type of player who will be a prime breakout candidate heading into his sophomore season (like D'Angelo Russell this season), as he should flash All-Star level potential as a rookie, but will also be inconsistent at times while he adjusts to the NBA game and the grind of an 82-game season. He isn't as ready as Simmons to make a major impact on fantasy teams right away, though he should be startable in most formats for the bulk of the year. Simmons can struggle with his shot all season long and still bring valuable contributions in other areas, not to mention he has an NBA-ready body. If Ingram's shot isn't falling, it's not clear that he will do enough elsewhere to be a steady source of positive production as a rookie. However, flash forward five years, and Ingram could be offering 85-90 percent of what Kevin Durant currently provides.

3. Kris Dunn (PG)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮

The main concern for Dunn in year one is that he figures to come off the bench all season long. The main concern for him long term is that he is already 22 years old, and it's rare that a player comes into the league at that age and develops into an All-Star. Dunn's floor this season is what Marcus Smart did last year, where steals are the only category he provides above-average production. His ceiling this year is much more difficult to peg. He could contribute across the board, leaving a little to be desired in the shooting percentages, but it seems like he would either need an injury to Ricky Rubio or to surprisingly leap him on the depth chart in order to be a reliable fantasy asset. Long term, however, he figures to be the starting point guard on one of the best teams in the league, averaging close to 10 assists per game thanks to the fact that he'll play next to a couple future All-Stars in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. He should also challenge to finish in the top-five in steals during his prime seasons.

4. Jamal Murray (G)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮.5

The tricky thing with Murray is figuring out where he'll see minutes. He's seemingly at least the fourth guard on the depth chart, behind Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Will Barton, and he could be challenged for minutes by Jameer Nelson and fellow rookie Malik Beasley. It's possible that Murray is the team's best long-term option at point guard, and if the coaching staff comes to that conclusion, it would be a huge boost for his fantasy stock. However, if he is forced to bide his time behind Harris and Barton at shooting guard, it will be tough to extract much value from him in year one. Long-term, he could turn into an 18-ppg scorer with excellent shooting percentages and over two three-pointers per game. His ultimate upside will hinge on whether he's playing point guard and therefore contributing five or six assists per game to go with the excellent scoring production. He won't offer much defensively.

5. Dragan Bender (PF)
Age: 18
Talent: ✮✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮

Bender is a tricky player to place on this list, but at this point, his upside pushes him ahead of some safer options. He has the potential to do a little bit of everything from the power forward spot. His 7-foot-1, 225-pound frame and the fact he won't turn 19 until after the seasons starts, help excuse some obvious warts. It's worth remembering that the player we see during Bender's rookie season is not the player he could grow to be. This is not a player owners should be expecting useful production from in year one (he is not Kristaps Porzingis), and he really shouldn't be put under a microscope until 2017-18, after he has had time to adjust to the NBA game and has added some bulk to his frame. However, in three years Bender could emerge as the third-best player from this class.

6. Buddy Hield (SG)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮✮

Hield would rank much lower on this list if he went to the Nuggets instead of Jamal Murray. However, the Pelicans are devoid of reliable impact talent across the roster, save for Anthony Davis, and it would seem that Hield will be given 30-plus minutes per game at some point this season. He is a one-tool player (shooting), but it's possible he could provide Bradley Beal-esque production if he can shoot 40-plus percent from behind the arc. He is not as good of a dynasty league prospect as Devin Booker was heading into last year, which illustrates the gap in talent between the two draft classes.

7. Jaylen Brown (SF)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮

Brown could be a less-efficient Tyreke Evans. That's the downside. Unfortunately, that scenario seems like a 50/50 proposition. His NBA-ready body and high-end athleticism allow him to look the part of a star small forward in today's game, but his skills lag way behind his physical profile. The Celtics can be a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference without giving Brown more than 15 minutes per game, so if he can't turn himself into a solid shooter and heady player on both ends, he is not guaranteed the playing time that typically comes with going No. 3 overall.

8. Wade Baldwin (PG)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮✮

Baldwin is a Mike Conley injury away from being the Grizzlies' starting point guard. He also plays on a team where Tony Allen and Vince Carter sit atop the depth chart at shooting guard, so there will be plenty of minutes for the rookie if he proves himself up for the challenge. Baldwin is Kris Dunn's equal in the measurables, except he is two years younger. One reason he ended up going 12 spots later in the draft is because he didn't have Dunn's college success, but again, he was two years younger. His questionable motor and potential inability to score against NBA size will be the two things people point to if things don't work out.

9. Dejounte Murray (PG)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮✮✮

This is not a deep draft class, and for dynasty league purposes, it's not really worth investing in a solid sixth or seventh option when there are still players with high ceilings available. The case could be made that Murray has the third-highest ceiling in this draft. Of course, there is a ton of risk, which is why he fell to the Spurs with the 29th overall pick. However, he has very unique size and athleticism, profiling as someone who could be the No. 2 scorer and No. 3 rebounder on a good team while offering all of the production associated with the point guard position. He is unlikely to play much in year one, but the Spurs are excellent at developing players, and they need a point guard to take over for Tony Parker in the next year or two.

10. Thon Maker (F/C)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮

Like with Dejounte Murray, there's no reason to settle for solid rotation players in a class this thin until all of the high-upside options are off the board. Maker could be a devastating shot-blocker and rebounder while finishing with ease around the rim and also stepping out beyond the arc on occasion. Physically, he looks like the type of big man who could deal with career-hindering lower-body injuries, but right now that is just a hypothetical. Like with Giannis Antetokounmpo before him, there is no player comparison that works here. He is truly unique, which obviously excited the Bucks, and should excite prospective dynasty league owners looking to roll the dice.

11. Marquese Chriss (PF)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮.5

Chriss' issues with racking up fouls will be a major hindrance for the foreseeable future. He fouled out of 15 of 34 games in college and recorded 16 fouls in three summer league games. That's something that players can overcome, but it speaks to his lack of lifetime basketball hours (he has only played competitively for four years). It's also not an issue he will be able to easily work on while playing around 20 minutes per game, which seems like the best-case scenario for him in year one. He has the upside to be a devastating shot-blocker and solid three-point shooter while playing above the rim on both ends, but he is a lottery ticket at this point.

12. Juan Hernangomez (PF)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮.5

Hernangomez is a very skilled scorer for his age, offering an efficient stroke and the ability to put the ball on the deck and finish with two hands at the rim while being a load on the offensive glass. The Nuggets will undoubtedly take a year to develop him behind the likes of Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried, but he may have more of a future in Denver than any of those three players. In time, his fantasy production could look a lot like what Gallinari put up in his prime years.

13. Cheick Diallo (PF)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮✮✮

Diallo may never be seen as more than a lob and transition finisher on offense, but he has very unique tools as a rebounder and defender. He could block more than two shots and add more than a steal per game, even in a reserve role. If he were to see 28-32 minutes per game because of his defense, then he could also add 10-plus rebounds, thanks to a 7-foot-4 wingspan. Like with Buddy Hield, Diallo is helped in these rankings because he is going to a team with precious few reliable options. At some point in the next season or two, the Pelicans will be forced to try Anthony Davis at the five on a more consistent basis, which will open up minutes for Diallo at the four.

14. Caris LeVert (G)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮✮.5

Opportunity is knocking in Brooklyn, and LeVert is one of the only interesting players who could answer the call. He has special size for a combo guard, and has shown the ability to be an efficient scorer in college. LeVert should also be able to use his length and size to be a solid contributor in rebounds and steals. If he plays well in limited minutes early on, Brooklyn will be tempted to play him over the collection of journeyman and D-League caliber youngsters littering their depth chart at the guard positions.

15. Malachi Richardson (G/F)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮

Richardson may never be efficient enough from the field to see starter's minutes in the NBA. He shot 36.9 percent from the field at Syracuse and 36.1 percent from the field in the Summer League. However, if he can become just a 40-42 percent shooter and surpass Ben McLemore on the depth chart, he has the potential to contribute in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and three-pointers, thanks to a strong long-range shooting stroke and a seven-foot wingspan. Arron Afflalo is not such a high-quality veteran that Richardson could not also pass him, especially once the Kings are out of the playoff picture.

16. Domantas Sabonis (F/C)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮

Sabonis' prospects are hurt by the fact the has no obvious avenue to meaningful minutes. The Thunder obviously like him, but he is the type of player who needs to be seeing close to 30 minutes per game to compile the counting stats that would make him useful in most formats. If he can develop a reliable three-point stroke, he could pass Ersan Ilyasova on the depth chart, which is his most obvious path to big minutes. In deeper leagues, his ability to post excellent percentages from the floor and the charity stripe will make him a serviceable option, even if he is seeing 20-25 mpg.

17. Patrick McCaw (G)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮.5

The Warriors did very well to acquire McCaw on draft day, as he helps solidify their long-term backcourt depth. Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston are the obvious first two guards/wings off the bench, but McCaw could be third in that equation by season's end. He is a draft-and-hold candidate in dynasty leagues, but he has the scoring and defensive upside to be relevant in a couple years.

18. Timothe Luwawu (SF)
Age: 21
Talent: ✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮✮

Luwawu has the physical tools to be an excellent NBA wing, but he is a little older than the ideal European rookie prospect, and it remains to be seen how his three-point shot will translate. The Sixers seem fine with having Luwawu spend a good chunk of the season in the D-League, so he probably won't be a realistic fantasy option until 2017-18, even in deep leagues.

19. Malik Beasley (SG)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮✮
Team Context: ✮

Unless the Nuggets decide to develop Jamal Murray as a point guard, Beasley is at best fourth on the depth chart at shooting guard. If he were in a better situation, he would be a lot higher on this list. He is recovering from a procedure to address a stress fracture in his leg, but he is a long-term play in dynasty leagues, so the injury shouldn't impact his stock. He could be the best three-and-D two guard from this year's draft class.

20. Jakob Poeltl (C)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮.5

This may seem like a low ranking for Poeltl, but he's the type of high-floor, low-upside player that dynasty league owners don't need to worry about, unless it's a really deep league. If the Zeller brothers are coveted assets, then Poeltl should be too, but he profiles as an above-average backup center and below-average starting center long term.

21. Denzel Valentine (G)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮

Valentine's best routes to fantasy relevance would be via a Dwyane Wade injury or if the Bulls coaching staff had a moment of brilliance and began using him as the backup point guard. He is one of the rare players from this class whose fantasy value could peak in the next couple years, given his age and long-term health concerns. If he were to find his way into a major role, he could be an all-around contributor.

22. Taurean Prince (SF)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮
Team Context: ✮✮

It seems possible that one of Prince and DeAndre' Bembry emerge as a useful fantasy option in the next couple years, but it's hard to peg which rookie will separate himself. Prince is the more impressive specimen, drawing physical comparisons to DeMarre Carroll. He could establish himself as a three-and-D wing, potentially seeing big minutes sooner than expected if the end is near for Kyle Korver.

23. Skal Labissiere, (F/C)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮✮.5
Team Context: ✮

Labissiere is going to a pretty rough situation. The new coaching regime should be competent, but he doesn't have any players on the roster to look to for guidance. If he ever tapped into his physical skills in a significant role, he would be a fantasy godsend, as he could average over two three-pointers and over two blocks per game, but that continues to look like a long shot.

24. DeAndre' Bembry (G/F)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮✮
Team Context: ✮.5

Bembry will be competing with fellow rookie Taurean Prince for minutes on the wing in Atlanta, and even if he plays well during his first year, he won't see significant minutes until at least 2017-18, barring injuries. Bembry is smoother with and without the ball than Prince, but he is also less physical. He is unlikely to ever be more than a solid rotation player.

25. Brice Johnson (PF)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮.5
Team Context: ✮✮

Johnson has a questionable motor and IQ on defense, but he can rack up points and rebounds as well as anyone who went outside the top-20 in this year's draft. If Blake Griffin were to get traded at some point in the next calendar year and Johnson can impress in short stints as a rookie, he could be in for a decent sized role in 2017-18.

26. Deyonta Davis (F/C)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮✮
Team Context: ✮.5

Davis could wash out of the league in a couple years, but he still has that tantalizing size and athleticism that led many to project him as a potential lottery pick. At this point, there's nothing wrong with stashing a guy with Davis' physical tools for the the slight hope that he pans out.

27. Henry Ellenson (PF)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮.5
Team Context: ✮.5

There are a lot of questions about how accurate of a three-point shooter Ellenson will be in the NBA. His shot looks great, but it doesn't go in as often as his reputation may lead one to believe. He is also buried on the Pistons' depth chart at power forward.

28. Chinanu Onuaku (C)
Age: 19
Talent: ✮.5
Team Context: ✮.5

Onuaku will probably never be more than a backup center in the NBA, but in the event that the player ahead of him on the depth chart gets hurt, he can be an excellent source of rebounds and blocks for however long he is seeing starter's minutes.

29. Tyler Ulis (PG)
Age: 20
Talent: ✮.5
Team Context: ✮

It's hard to see how Ulis ever sees enough minutes in Phoenix to matter in fantasy, as he would need to compile assists to go with solid per-minute steals and three-pointers. However, if the Suns get bit by the injury bug, or decide to trade one of their point guards, Ulis could have a run of relevancy thanks to his innate skills as a floor general.

30. Jake Layman (F)
Age: 22
Talent: ✮.5
Team Context: ✮

Don't sleep on Layman. OK, you can probably sleep on Layman, but there's a very slight chance you shouldn't. He is athletic enough to guard threes and long enough to guard fours, and he can also make it rain from downtown. There is a chance he ends up having a Mike Dunleavy-esque career.

HONORABLE MENTION

Georgios Papagiannis, C, Kings
Guerschon Yabusele, PF, Celtics (playing 2016-17 overseas)
Ivica Zubac, C, Lakers
Damian Jones, C, Warriors
Pascal Siakam, F/C, Raptors
Kay Felder, PG, Cavaliers
Ante Zizic, C, Celtics (playing 2016-17 overseas)
Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Sixers (playing 2016-17 overseas)