1. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona would likely finish last in half the divisions in the NFL, but because they are in the NFC West, they have a good shot at the postseason for the first time in a decade. The team really only excels in one area, and that's the passing game, but that also comes with too many sacks and turnovers. Kurt Warner is the superior option, but he's unlikely to last 16 games. Tim Hightower betters the running game, and the defense is improving. There will be major steps forward during year two under Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle enters the clear favorite in the division, with an emerging defensive unit and an offensive system that produces even with changing parts. At age 32, it's unlikely Patrick Kerney repeats his performance form last season, and the ground game is in decline. Usually the system trumps name-brand receivers in Seattle, but this incredibly thin and untested corps will really test that theory. Matt Hasselbeck is good, not great, and last year's 28 TD passes with a 7.1 YPA was a fluke. The Seahawks do, however, have a terrific homefield advantage.
3. San Francisco 49ers
After ranking dead last in total offense last year, the hope is that new OC Mike Martz can bring dramatic changes. It certainly can't be worse than Jim Hostler's predictable schemes. With the additions of Bryant Johnson and exciting rookie Josh Morgan, combined with the continued maturation of Vernon Davis, there is some upside here. However, that all depends on the quarterback, and J.T. O'Sullivan is the great unknown. Still, that's better than the known, Alex Smith, who is one of the biggest busts in NFL history; he's right up there with David Carr and Joey Harrington as the worst quarterbacks ever. As good as last year's draft was (Patrick Willis, Joe Staley), it was equally as bad this time around (each of their first five picks look like game day inactives). Still, it's likely the defense improves, and in such a winnable division, anything is possible.
4. St. Louis Rams
Things can't possibly go as bad as last season, when injuries ravaged the entire offense. However, the team is also unlikely to fare all that much better. The offense is an aging unit with a leaky line. Steven Jackson is the team's best player, which isn't a good sign considering his position is running back – the most fungible on the field (linebacker is close). If Marc Bulger reverts to old form, St. Louis has a shot, but he needs to stay upright – and in games – for that to happen. With a far weaker cast of characters surrounding the signal caller, don't expect it to happen.