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Best Player in the NBA by the Numbers

I was planning to wait until the end of the season before I did this advanced stats overall player ranking, but it turns out I needed the info for today's Hoops Lab article so I went ahead and did it now.  I have already done this type of analysis to rank 10 of the best  point guards, 27 of the best wing players, and 25 of the best big men in the NBA this year so the methodology is well established.   

Methodology review: Again, I will show the raw values for each player in each stat, then at the end rank-order how each player finishes in each stat versus the other big men under consideration.  The end result gives an interesting rough-and-ready ranking of what "the numbers" say about who is really playing the best this year...not always the same thing as our perceptions. 

From those previous ranking lists, I took the top player groupings from each category and put them into this pool to grade 20 of the best-of-the-best players in the NBA against each other.  Without further ado...

PER: Hollinger's stat, probably the most popular of the "advanced stats", favorable (compared to other advanced stats) to volume scorers and players that generate a lot of free throws; generally ranks those considered "great" by the general public well, though also will tend to have role players with good scoring-per-minute very highly.

PER
LeBron James27
Dwight Howard26.3
Dwyane Wade25.1
Chris Paul24.6
Kevin Love24.5
Dirk Nowitzki24.4
Kevin Durant23.9
Kobe Bryant23.8
Russell Westbrook23.6
Pau Gasol23.4
Derrick Rose23.3
Manu Ginobili22.4
LaMarcus Aldridge21.9
Steve Nash21.8
Al Horford21.8
Andrew Bynum21.6
Deron Williams21.3
Kevin Garnett20.8
Paul Pierce19.5
Rajon Rondo17.1

Win Shares: From Basketball-reference.com, emphasizes shooting/scoring efficiency; loves points per shot (thus values FTs drawn).  To account for different minutes played, we're going to look at Win Shares per 48 minutes played.

WS48
Chris Paul0.252
Dwight Howard0.237
LeBron James0.236
Pau Gasol0.229
Dirk Nowitzki0.224
Kevin Love0.217
Andrew Bynum0.213
Manu Ginobili0.206
Dwyane Wade0.204
Derrick Rose0.201
Paul Pierce0.2
Al Horford0.199
Kevin Garnett0.196
Kevin Durant0.19
Kobe Bryant0.179
LaMarcus Aldridge0.171
Steve Nash0.171
Russell Westbrook0.155
Deron Williams0.145
Rajon Rondo0.129

Wins Produced: Dave Berri's controversial stat (most likely to be trashed on an APBRmetric board) is also the one seemingly growing fastest in popular usage; wins produced values what he defines as possessions, so loves rebounds, steals, and blocks and doesn't like TOs; doesn't value shot creation, but does value assists.  We'll look at Wins Produced per 48 minutes.

WP48
Kevin Love0.472
Dwight Howard0.41
Chris Paul0.367
LeBron James0.35
Kevin Garnett0.313
Andrew Bynum0.3
Steve Nash0.297
Dwyane Wade0.285
Al Horford0.28
Pau Gasol0.265
Rajon Rondo0.259
Manu Ginobili0.249
Paul Pierce0.225
Kevin Durant0.223
Deron Williams0.203
Kobe Bryant0.197
Dirk Nowitzki0.194
Russell Westbrook0.188
Derrick Rose0.185
LaMarcus Aldridge0.126

Roland Rating: 82games.com's Roland Rating is based upon a combination of PER and +/- stats.  It looks at the individual PER of each player, the PER of their primary defensive assignment, and subtracts the 2 for a 1-on-1 value then they combine that 1-on-1 value with a team-impact based on-court/off-court +/- stat to get the rating.  Tends to produce fewest "what???" rankings, because players that rank out highly in both the 1-on-1 and team stats are almost universally who we consider to be among the best in the game...though the order at the top isn't always what you'd expect. (Note: 82games last updated on March 5, so these results are only current to that date)

Roland Rating
LeBron James15.8
Dwight Howard14.6
Steve Nash13.9
Kevin Garnett12
Manu Ginobili11.4
Dwyane Wade11.3
Paul Pierce11.3
Dirk Nowitzki11.3
Chris Paul10.6
LaMarcus Aldridge10.1
Al Horford9.7
Pau Gasol9.4
Kevin Durant8.8
Rajon Rondo8.4
Kobe Bryant8.1
Kevin Love7.9
Andrew Bynum7.1
Derrick Rose6.7
Deron Williams4.4
Russell Westbrook2.8

1-year Adjusted +/-: This is Basketballvalue.com's APM calculation.  For the point guards I used 1-year APM, which I don't love because APM is so incredibly noisy that a single year (or less) doesn't give conclusive answers.  For the wings I used 2-year APM (which still may be too short for an APM calculation and also includes data from last season, which I really don't like) because at the time there were too many "no freaking way" values in the 1-year APMs that didn't match either the 2-year average or any stretch of common sense.  I actually like longer APM calculations, 4 years or more, to really clean up the noise and give a robust effect.  Nevertheless, we're talking about this year specifically and the 1-year values seem to have been cleaned up since I did the wings, so I'm back to using the 1-year APM here (with associated standard error):

APM 1 yrAPM 1 yr SE
LaMarcus Aldridge17.456.06
Steve Nash15.356.46
Chris Paul15.196.2
Dirk Nowitzki13.694.26
Dwight Howard12.425.36
Kevin Garnett12.25.98
Andrew Bynum11.825.65
Pau Gasol11.046.16
LeBron James10.444.71
Paul Pierce10.145.66
Manu Ginobili9.644.88
Derrick Rose9.179.64
Kevin Love5.375.98
Kevin Durant5.095.58
Dwyane Wade4.155.7
Deron Williams2.364.75
Al Horford0.614.95
Russell Westbrook-1.758.37
Rajon Rondo-3.795.53
Kobe Bryant-6.686.93

Overall Rank orders: Giving each of our 20 guys a '1' through '20' ranking based on where they ranked in each stat, here is a summary of how each guy did.  I'll add an average across the 5 stats (with standard error) to give us a better idea how our seat-of-the-pants-advanced-stat-cross-section-view ranks 20 of the best players in the NBA this year:

PERWS48WP48Rld RtgAPM Avg.Std. Er.
Dwight Howard22225 2.60.6
LeBron James13419 3.61.5
Chris Paul41393 4.01.3
Dirk Nowitzki651764 7.62.4
Kevin Love5611613 8.22.7
Dwyane Wade398815 8.61.9
Pau Gasol10410128 8.81.4
Steve Nash1517732 8.83.1
Kevin Garnett1813546 9.22.7
Manu Ginobili12812511 9.61.4
Andrew Bynum1676177 10.62.4
LaMarcus Aldridge131620101 12.03.2
Paul Pierce191113710 12.02.0
Kevin Durant714141314 12.41.4
Al Horford141291117 12.61.4
Derrick Rose1110191812 14.01.9
Kobe Bryant815161520 14.81.9
Russell Westbrook918182018 16.61.9
Rajon Rondo2020111419 16.81.8
Deron Williams1719151916 17.20.8

Conclusions:

Interestingly, the top three players in this ranking corresponded to the top big man (Howard), the top wing (James), and the top point guard (Paul) from the previous three analyses.  I didn't expect it to break down quite that evenly.

We see some of the same dichotomies between the box score (PER, WS, WP) and +/- (Rol Rtg, APM) stats that I noted in the big man article.  The top-5 in the box score categories are Howard, James, Paul, Kevin Love and Dwyane Wade.  But if you look only at the stats that utilize +/-, the top five are Steve Nash, Howard, James, Dirk Nowitzki, and Kevin Garnett.  Nash, Love and Garnett are the three extreme cases that were great in one type but much lower in the other, but even at the top the stat separation was clear as Paul wasn't top-5 in the +/- stats and LeBron was barely top-5 there.  Howard was the only one that was top-2 by both types of stats.

Point guards fared the worst of the three position types in this analysis, with four of the bottom five slots on the list.  Big men fared the best, with seven of the top-12 slots including three of the top-5.

Runaway MVP favorite Derrick Rose finished 16th out of this group of 20, slightly ahead of Kobe Bryant (who also gets a few MVP mentions) but well behind other contenders Howard and James.  On the whole, when I factor in statistical production with team impact and team results I would likely have Howard as my current MVP with James right on his heels.

(If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz.  Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio every Friday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 147, Sirius 211.)