DraftKings College Football: Week Zero

DraftKings College Football: Week Zero

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

Of all the articles I thought I'd ever see on the site again, this one was at the bottom of the list after everything that happened with college DFS getting nixed in 2016. Well, friends, our long national nightmare is over and we finally get to enjoy what is, in my opinion, the best DFS game in the entire landscape. I'm happy to announce I'll be writing our Draftkings article every week this season, starting here with Saturday's three-game slate.

Before we jump into the picks for this week, I want to touch on a few tenets that apply to college DFS that make it so fun and unique.

1.) The extremes that come with a given college football slate are wild

-There will be teams favored by 20-or-more points with regularity, whereas anything more than two touchdowns in the NFL is rare

-The overall tempo and scoring is far greater in college as well

-There will be teams running 80-plus plays every single week and there will be teams barely getting over 62 offensive snaps. The wide variety of systems and philosophies make this format unique. In the NFL, teams tend to run between 61 and 67 plays per game, with very few exceptions outside that range.

2.) The player pool is deeper, which means there really are 'sleepers' in college DFS

-Sometimes that No.3 wide receiver on Middle Tennessee can swing an entire contest

3.)Follow the expected game script

-If a blue blood program is playing one of

Of all the articles I thought I'd ever see on the site again, this one was at the bottom of the list after everything that happened with college DFS getting nixed in 2016. Well, friends, our long national nightmare is over and we finally get to enjoy what is, in my opinion, the best DFS game in the entire landscape. I'm happy to announce I'll be writing our Draftkings article every week this season, starting here with Saturday's three-game slate.

Before we jump into the picks for this week, I want to touch on a few tenets that apply to college DFS that make it so fun and unique.

1.) The extremes that come with a given college football slate are wild

-There will be teams favored by 20-or-more points with regularity, whereas anything more than two touchdowns in the NFL is rare

-The overall tempo and scoring is far greater in college as well

-There will be teams running 80-plus plays every single week and there will be teams barely getting over 62 offensive snaps. The wide variety of systems and philosophies make this format unique. In the NFL, teams tend to run between 61 and 67 plays per game, with very few exceptions outside that range.

2.) The player pool is deeper, which means there really are 'sleepers' in college DFS

-Sometimes that No.3 wide receiver on Middle Tennessee can swing an entire contest

3.)Follow the expected game script

-If a blue blood program is playing one of the weaker teams in the FBS as a warmup game, it's important to be wary of deploying the good team's studs.
-For instance, using a player like Alabama's Damien Harris against Colorado State last season would have cost a pretty penny, but only netted you 11 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown -- certainly not the outcome you would've paid for.
-On the other hand, games with high projected totals and narrow spreads are always games to target. I'm already looking forward to next week's showdown between Ole Miss and Texas Tech (-2) with the hefty 67.5 O/U.

Now, let's get into this week's picks

Quarterback

K.J. Carta-Samuels, Colorado State (vs. Hawaii) $10,800

It's chalky, but it's good chalk. Carta-Samuels is a former blue-chip recruit who had to sit behind Jake Browning and is finally getting his chance. He's going against a Hawaii defense that may be heavy on returning starters (35th in FBS), per SB Nation's Bill Connelly, but ranked 124th in defensive S&P+ in 2017. Carta-Samuels won't have a Michael Gallup-level target at his disposal, and the Rams do have a new offensive coordinator in the fold, but this is still going to be a prolific and productive offense. He's worth the hefty price tag.

Matt Romero, New Mexico State (vs. Wyoming) $7,500

There are a couple factors working against Romero, who is making his first start at this level against one of the tougher and more opportunistic defenses in the Group of Five. Romero also won't have the luxury of having Larry Rose III or Jaleel Scott at his disposal. What is working in his favor is the system. New Mexico State's offense under coach Doug Martin; the Aggies have averaged 78-or-more plays in each of the last two seasons, and Romero wouldn't have won this job after transferring in from a Junior College if Martin wasn't confident that he could run this system. It's not just the tempo, either; only Washington State (71.7%) had a bigger pass play skew than New Mexico State (65.5%) last season. There's plenty of unknown about how Romero will respond to the speed of the game, and Wyoming will certainly be throwing everything it has at the young signal caller to confuse him. That said, there should be enough tempo and pass plays to make Romero a worthwhile option, especially as a Superflex.

Running Back

Fred Holly, Hawaii (@ Colorado State) $5,800

Hawaii is replacing workhorse Diocemy Saint-Juste, who accounted for 282 carries in 2017. There's no guarantee Holly picks up those 23 carries per game, but he is going to be starting against a Colorado State defense that gave up 5.1 yards per carry in 2017 -- good enough for 90th in the FBS. Holly only averaged 3.0 yards per carry last season, but that was on just a nine carry sample spread over two games -- one of which was a mismatch against UCLA. Hawaii should run a ton of plays Saturday, so even if the Warriors are pass-centric, there will be enough touches for Holly to hit value.

Emmanuel Esukpa (vs. Prairie View A&M) $6,900

This is probably (hopefully) the only week I'll recommend players from Rice this season, but hey, going against an FCS school is as good a time as any to do it. Espuka is the third-most expensive back on the board, but with no real elite runners out there, you could do a lot worse than using him in one of your RB spots. He averaged a decent 4.6 yards per carry in 2017 and enters this week as the unchallenged starter due to Nahshon Ellerbe's absence. Rice is breaking in a new offense under Mike Bloomgren, but this is still going to be a run-first team considering the roster construction and his Stanford roots. The Owls may go at a plodding pace, but Esukpa will still be a factor against a subpar defense.

Dart Throw: Xazavian Valladay (@ New Mexico State) $3,000.

He's minimum priced and Wyoming's banged up backfield has let to Valladay securing the No.2 spot on the Cowboys' depth chart heading into this week. If you're pressed up against the cap, Valladay should see enough carries to make him worth rostering while you load up at other positions.

Wide Receiver

Aaron Cephus (vs. Prairie View A&M) $6,800

Hey look, another guy from Rice! Cephus may have to deal with shoddy quarterback play, but one he hauls in a pass, he usually makes the most of it. His eyesore of a catch rate in 2017 (43%) was buoyed by his absurd 24.9 yards per reception average. At 6-foot-4 and over 200 pounds, Cephus is unlikely to be stopped by anyone in Prairie View A&M's secondary. Rice doesn't throw much, but when it does, it's often to Cephus, as evidenced by his 24.0 percent target share from 2017 that could increase this season.

JoJo Ward (@ Colorado State) $3,000

A junior college transfer, Ward instantly earned himself a starting spot in the Warriors' receiving corps. John Ursua is obviously the main event here, but he works out of the slot, which means Ward could be the top option on the outside. Getting the start in an up-tempo contest where Hawaii will be going to the air early and often, Ward is a prime candidate to outperform his minimum price tag.

Warren Jackson (vs. Hawaii) $6,400

The Rams are replacing a fair bit of their receiving production from 2017, with Olabisi Johnson as the only returning wideout with over 20 catches. Unlike Johnson, Jackson is a rangy target at 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds that can stretch the field and make a difference in the red zone. He's listed as a starter so the target volume should be there for Jackson to produce against a shaky secondary. Tennessee transfer Preston Williams ($5,600) is an intriguing option if you're looking to get cheaper exposure to the CSU passing attack Saturday. Game theory makes me wonder whether someone of Williams' pedigree at a cheaper price might make him more highly owned in contests.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 and 2021 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
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