This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
The following rankings were made without workout data, so the results of this year's Combine and pro days will doubtlessly force some adjustments. There's only so much of an athletic profile to assemble based on film and hearsay of past workout numbers, so there are bound to be a few miscalculations of the size/speed specifics for the following players until the hard data is available.
For now, though, here are the best guesses I have for the dynasty values of the upcoming rookie running back class. Scouting report blurbs are written for the top 20.
The players are listed in the projected order with which they might be drafted in the 2016 draft. Each blurb will mention the listed height/weight for each player, their birth date if known (and their age for the 2016 season's start), as well as a comparison to a past NFL player. The comparisons should be looked at more as in terms of aesthetics than career arc, though both are in mind to some extent.
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State* (6-0, 225)
The consensus firmly ranks Elliott atop this year's running back class, and it's difficult to argue against it. He checks all the boxes for feature running back candidates – he has ideal size in the 220-pound range and shows a balanced set of traits that imply future NFL stardom. Elliott's 592 career carries went for 3,961 yards (6.7 YPC) and 43 touchdowns, and he showed good pass-catching ability by catching 58 passes for 449 yards (7.7 YPC) and a touchdown. Elliott showed good pass-blocking ability, as well, which all but assures he'll step into a workhorse role very early in his NFL career.
Birth date: 07/22/1995 (21)
Comparison: Corey Dillon
Projected round: 1
2. Derrick Henry, Alabama* (6-3, 242)
The Heisman Trophy-winning running back for the national championship-winning Crimson Tide, Henry is just as visible as Elliott in this class, even though he's the lesser prospect. Henry was ruthless for Alabama, proving matchup-proof while bolting for 2,219 yards (5.6 YPC) and 28 touchdowns on 395 carries in 15 games this year. He also ran for 990 yards (5.8 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in 2014. Henry has a freakish combination of size and straight-line speed, looking oversized despite easily showing game-breaking long speed. The concern with him is that his size might be a detriment more than an advantage – he definitely takes a moment or two to build up to his top speed, so the main criticism of Henry is that he won't have enough burst in the NFL for his top speed to ever be applicable. This leads to comparisons such as Marcel Reece and Michael Bush, but there are more so reasons to buy in on Henry.
Nailing down a comparison for a player as unique as Henry is difficult. I think Henry's truly rare combination of size and speed makes him most similar to the other most extreme recent example of running back size/speed: Brandon Jacobs. Yet Jacobs (6-foot-4, 258 pounds) was even bigger than Henry, and perhaps even faster in a straight line. Despite that, Henry is the better prospect between the two. Indeed, Henry shows quite a bit more flexibility and foot quickness than Jacobs did, even if Jacobs is the most similar comparison in this case. To be clear, I don't consider a Jacobs comparison a negative one – he was a very intimidating runner for a few years.
Birth date: 07/17/1994 (22)
Comparison: Brandon Jacobs
Projected round: 2
3. Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech (5-10, 212)
Dixon might be the most time-tested player at any position in this draft. He was remarkably good for four seasons at Louisiana Tech, scoring touchdowns at a greedy rate. A big-play back who served as a dominant workhorse runner in college, Dixon's production profile implies he's a starting-level talent in the NFL. Depending on how well he tests at the Combine, he might even project as a star runner. Dixon finished his Louisiana Tech career with 4,483 yards (5.6 YPC) and 72 touchdowns on 802 carries, and he showed elite pass-catching upside by snagging 87 catches for 969 yards and 15 touchdowns.
The one obvious concern with Dixon is his level of competition, but he's otherwise quite difficult to criticize.
Birth date: 1/21/1994 (22)
Comparsion: Joseph Addai
Projected round: 2
4. Jonathan Williams, Arkansas (6-0, 223)
Williams outperformed Alex Collins at Arkansas, and I think the film is more favorable to Williams, too. The only catch is he needs to be fully recovered from the season-ending foot injury he suffered just before the start of the 2015 season. Otherwise, Williams looks like a fine candidate to emerge as a workhorse runner in the NFL. He has an ideal build at over 220 of good weight, yet he shows the foot quickness and balance to prove nimble in traffic. Williams is probably more of a power back than a big-play back – he immediately stands out on tape for his ability to break tackles. Williams ran for 2,321 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 touchdowns on 406 carries at Arkansas, adding 26 receptions for 345 yards and six more touchdowns in 36 games.
Birth date: 2/2/1994 (22)
Comparison: Willis McGahee
Projected round: 2-3
5. Paul Perkins, UCLA* (5-11, 210)
Perkins was a dominant two-year starter for UCLA, initially making waves as an off-the-bench freshman in 2013 before running for 2,918 yards and 23 touchdowns over the next 26 games. He also demonstrated above average pass-catching upside over that span, catching 56 passes for 443 yards and three touchdowns. Perkins is the draft's most dangerous juke threat, showing start-stop and change-of-direction ability that only players like LeSean McCoy can match. This can be a double-edged sword – Perkins got away with some backfield dancing in college that he probably won't in the NFL – but it's reassuring that Perkins' motor and leg drive check out fine. If he tests well at the Combine, he should have a fine NFL projection.
Birth date: 11/16/1994 (21)
Comparison: David Wilson
Projected round: 2-3
6. Devontae Booker, Utah (5-11, 203)
It's easy to argue for Booker as a top-five runner in this draft. He showed All-Pro upside at Utah thanks to a three-down skill set and an encouraging bundle of instincts and athleticism. Even in an offense limited by a dysfunctional passing game, Booker thrived as an (over)workhorse at Utah, running for 2,773 yards (5.0 YPC) and 21 touchdowns on 560 carries in 23 games. He's also one of the most skilled pass-catching backs of recent memory, as evidenced by his 80 receptions for 622 yards and two touchdowns over that span. The film probably checks out even better for Booker than the stats do – he consistently showed a top motor and quick feet while fighting hard for yardage after contact. Booker's main concerns are probably his age, and perhaps ball security since he fumbled six times on 338 touches in 2014. He generally appears formidable, though.
Birth date: 5/27/1992 (24)
Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw
Projected round: 2-3
7. Jordan Howard, Indiana* (6-1, 230)
After two dominant seasons at UAB, Howard headed to Indiana for one season after the Blazers program disbanded. Funny enough, the already dominant Howard became even more productive after making the jump in competition. His 23 games at UAB yielded 2,468 yards (5.5 YPC) and 15 touchdowns, and then he went off for 1,213 yards (6.2 YPC) and nine touchdowns in nine games at Indiana. An obvious bulldozer at 230 pounds, Howard shows standout burst and flexibility for a bigger back, allowing him to get creative in traffic rather than blindly charge ahead at all times. If he tests well at the Combine, he should project as an NFL starter. He'll have durability questions to answer, though, after missing time in 2015 with knee and ankle issues.
Birth date: 11/2/1994 (21)
Comparison: Larry Johnson
Projected round: 2-3
8. Alex Collins, Arkansas* (5-11, 215)
Collins is generally considered a bigger name in the Arkansas backfield than Jonathan Williams, but that line should change as evaluators and media get more familiar with both. Collins benefits from recency bias due to Williams missing the 2015 season, during which time Collins predictably exploded for 1,577 yards (5.8 YPC) and 20 touchdowns as the lone workhorse of the Arkansas backfield.
Although I don't think he's as good as Williams, Collins is still impressive in his own right. I think he compares to Marion Barber – a guy who lacks burning speed or bruising power but still thrives as an in-traffic runner due to fast feet and standout balance. Collins runs urgently and, while his top speed doesn't impress, he's functionally fast as a runner due to his ability to change directions and speeds efficiently.
Birth date: 8/26/1994 (22)
Comparison: Marion Barber
Projected round: 2-4
9. C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame* (6-1, 220)
Prosise is one of the more novel prospects at running back, as he emerged as a star runner in 2015 after previously playing at receiver. Prosise ran for 1,029 yards (6.6 YPC) and 11 touchdowns in his first season at the position, giving him a strong box score element to his broader prospect profile. As you might expect, as a former receiver Prosise is well above the average when it comes to pass-catching ability (26 catches for 308 yards and one touchdown in 11 games last year). When you couple that fact with his 220-pound frame, you have reason to project Prosise as a three-down player in the NFL.
The one problem with Prosise is that he was more raw at running back than his 2015 stats might lead you to think. He looked hesitant at many points, and awkward at others, so the game will need to slow down for him if he's going to capitalize on his considerable potential. Prosise should test well at the Combine.
Birth date: 5/20/1994 (22)
Comparison: Latavius Murray
Projected round: 2-4
10. Dwayne Washington, Washington* (6-2, 226)
Washington isn't well known after dealing with injury troubles in 2015, but he's a candidate to establish himself as one of this draft's most formidable size/athleticism specimens. He's a big running back at around 230 pounds, but the Washington Huskies program published spring workouts numbers for Washington that imply he might post elite numbers at the Combine. Washington finished his college career with 1,311 yards and 17 touchdowns on 226 carries (5.8 YPC), adding 41 receptions for 411 yards and four touchdowns.
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: James Starks
Projected round: 3-4
11. Kenyan Drake, Alabama (6-1, 210)
I don't think Drake is a good running back at all, but I have to list him this high because I think he'll test well at the Combine and go higher than I would take him.
With that said, Drake is interesting as a pass-catching threat – so much so that I'd rather see him at receiver. As a running back Drake seems mostly unaware of anything other than the defender directly ahead of him, which might prove problematic against NFL defensive fronts. When you get him the ball in space, however, Drake is a blur who can break demoralizing big plays against the defense.
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: Brandon Tate
Projected round: 3-4
12. Devon Johnson, Marshall (6-1, 244)
Johnson is one of the most unique and interesting players in this draft. It could be due to novelty, but he's also a personal favorite of mine. Johnson started his Marshall career at tight end, catching 15 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns in two years as the understudy to the legendary Gator Hoskins.
Heading into the summer of 2014, it was believed that Johnson was going to start at tight end for Marshall, replacing Hoskins. Instead, Johnson stealthily not only moved from tight end to running back, but emerged as the uncontested starter. What happened from there was memorable – despite missing about three games with shoulder and knee troubles, Johnson ran for 1,704 yards (8.6 YPC) and 17 touchdowns on just 199 carries in his 11 full games played. To see such explosive numbers from such a big running back – a recent tight end convert, moreover – was highly unusual. He was not only unusually big – his rushing stats were almost unreasonably explosive.
Unfortunately, Johnson's running style proved taxing on his durability – in addition to three games in 2014, Johnson was limited or out for eight games in 2015. His back, shoulder, and knee will all be areas of concern for his medical evaluation. If he tests well in a workout setting and receives general medical clearance, however, Johnson will be an intriguing running back prospect with crossover potential at tight end. His comparison spectrum ranges through names like Stephen Davis, Marcel Reece, and Charles Clay.
Birth date: 7/28/1993 (23)
Comparison: Eric Shelton
Projected round: 4-5
13. Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia* (5-11, 201)
Smallwood is an undersized but fiery and versatile runner, one who should prove useful as a complementary back in the NFL. Although he was stuck in an off-the-bench role for most of his West Virginia career, Smallwood established himself as one of college football's best running backs in 2015, leading the Big 12 with 1,519 yards (6.4 YPC) rushing in 13 games, scoring nine times on the ground.
Smallwood is a skilled pass catcher and should safely prove capable of earning a roster spot on many or most NFL teams so long as he tests adequately in workouts.
Birth date: 01/29/1994 (22)
Comparison: James White
Projected round: 4-5
14. Aaron Green, TCU (5-11, 205)
Originally a four-star recruit for Nebraska, Green had a rocky first three years at the college level, transferring after one year with the Cornhuskers after not playing much in 2011. After sitting out the 2012 season, Green proceeded to flop in his first year with TCU, running for just 232 yards and no touchdowns on 72 carries (3.2 YPC). The light turned on in 2014, though, marking the start of a productive two years to conclude his college career.
Green ran for 2,194 yards (5.9 YPC) and 20 touchdowns over the next 26 games, adding 35 receptions for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Although he never displayed elite athleticism, Green seems to possess an adequate combination of speed and quickness, and he runs with a good running back lean, squared up to the end zone while reading blockers. He should prove a useful complementary runner at the least.
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: Charcandrick West
Projected round: 4-5
15. Kelvin Taylor, Florida* (5-10, 205)
The son of former NFL great Fred Taylor, Kelvin is a much lesser prospect but one whose athletic dimensions and pedigree make him a candidate to get drafted sooner than his college production would normally project.
Poor quarterback and offensive line play certainly conspired against Taylor, but the fact that he finished his Florida career averaging just 4.3 yards per carry is discouraging. His 486 carries went for just 2,108 yards and 23 touchdowns in 35 games, some of the worst-ranking efficiency numbers among running backs considered NFL-viable in this draft. Taylor generally shows an intriguing combination of burst, speed, balance and power, however, and he might generate renewed interest if he tests well at the Combine.
Birth date: 9/28/1993 (22)
Comparison: Bryce Brown
Projected round: 5
16. Tyler Ervin, San Jose State (5-10, 177)
Ervin was a RB/WR tweener for much of his San Jose State career, presumably because San Jose State coaches had the reasonable concern that his 177-pound frame wouldn't hold up under traditional running back tasks. Spartans coaches finally decided to cut Ervin loose in 2015, though, giving him an enormous workload. Ervin made the most of the opportunity, finishing the year with 1,601 yards and 13 touchdowns on 294 carries (5.5 YPC), adding 45 catches for 334 yards and two touchdowns. He also returned a punt for a touchdown, one of five special teams touchdowns he scored at San Jose State (three kickoff returns, two punt returns).
Although Ervin weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 190 pounds, he'll have to test well at the Combine at his new weight to convince evaluators that he still has the standout speed he showed at under 180 pounds.
Birth date: 10/7/1993 (22)
Comparison: Lorenzo Booker
Projected round: 5-6
17. DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech (5-8, 200)
I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith listing Washington this high in the absence of elite workout numbers – he's a small runner who will doubtlessly get the 'system back' label coming out of Texas Tech – but I think his film and production imply a good off-the-bench skill set, particularly for passing downs and hurry-up situations. Fast and explosive, Washington can create separation on the ground or after the catch. He's a polished pass-catching threat after playing at Tech, where he ran for 3,411 yards (5.6 YPC) and 23 touchdowns in 49 career games, adding 124 catches for 1,091 yards and four touchdowns.
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: Lance Dunbar
Projected round: 5-6
18. Josh Ferguson, Illinois (5-10, 200)
Ferguson is probably the draft's most skilled pass catcher at running back. After catching 168 passes for 1,507 yards and eight touchdowns in 47 career games at Illinois, it's clear that Ferguson 's receiving abilities are well above the average.
He was also competent as a traditional runner, totaling 2,587 yards (5.1 YPC) and 18 touchdowns on the ground. But Ferguson has a light build and doesn't show burning athleticism on tape, so it's fair to question whether his excellent hands and route running will translate to sufficiently consistent explosiveness against NFL defenses. He's not a serious consideration as a starting running back prospect, but Ferguson should come off the board in the fifth or sixth round due to the threat he poses as a receiver.
Birth date: 5/23/1993 (23)
Comparison: Mewelde Moore
Projected round: 5-6
19. Tre Madden, USC (6-1, 225)
Madden is a player who flashes standout athleticism for his size and played very well when he was healthy, but he dealt with profound injury troubles at USC. Madden missed two entire seasons – 2012 (knee) and 2014 (toe) – and he was healthy for roughly just half of the two seasons he did play, suffering from hamstring troubles in 2013 and a knee issue that eventually required surgery in 2015.
Madden has quite a bit of talent, however, and could get into the late round discussion if he can get healthy enough to grade well in workouts and medical checks. Madden actually started ahead of Javorius Allen in the 2013 season, totaling 809 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage in six games before the hamstring flared up. Although he's a relatively big back, Madden is a skilled receiver and appears explosive on tape.
Birth date: 8/16/1993 (23)
Comparison: Montario Hardesty
Projected round: 6-7
20. Keenan Reynolds, Navy (5-10, 205)
As the all-time FBS leader for career touchdowns from scrimmage, Reynolds is a player whose NFL prospects are far outpaced by his reputation at the college level. A quarterback in Navy's option attack, Reynolds will have to switch to running back for an NFL audition, but he should get an extended look from the league.
Reynolds ran for 4,559 yards (4.7 YPC) and 88 touchdowns in his 50 career college games, and despite the odds against him as a military school quarterback conversion, his character figures to win him some advocates.
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: Woodrow Dantzler
Projected round: 6-7
21. Brandon Wilds, South Carolina (6-2, 220)
Birth date: 7/22/1993 (23)
Comparison: Ryan Torain
Projected round: 6-UDFA
22. Robert Lowe, Texas State (5-10, 195)
Birth date: 4/15/1994 (22)
Comparison: DonTrell Moore
Projected round: 6-UDFA
23. Tra Carson, Texas A&M (6-0, 235)
Birth date: 10/24/1992 (23)
Comparison: Jahwan Edwards
Projected round: 7-UDFA
24. Peyton Barber, Auburn* (5-11, 225)
Birth date: N/A
Comparison: Stepfan Taylor
Projected round: 7-UDFA
25. Daniel Lasco, California (6-0, 205)
Birth date: 10/9/1992 (23)
Comparison: Ray Graham
Projected round: 7-UDFA
