The Stats Room: Determining Replacement Value
The Stats Room: Determining Replacement Value

This article is part of our The Stats Room series.

This weekend marks the return of Tom Brady to magically lead the Patriots to another Super Bowl. For the last four grueling weeks, fantasy owners have been waiting for the savior's return. I am such an owner.

Waiting for a player to return from time off can test an owner's patience. Additionally, knowing your productive player is soon to be replaced can be discouraging unless you completely understand the entire range of outcomes.

This week, I am going to step through how to correctly evaluate players missing time because of injury or suspension and their replacements.

The discussion is brought to you by BrianPoindexter when he mentioned the following in the comments from last week's article:

Jeff - I've got a question I've never seen really explored before. It focuses on the value of drafting a player like DeAngelo Williams or Spencer Ware (not as a handcuff). Every year there are a couple players - usually backs - who will be Top 5 at their position for only a few weeks until the bell cow returns. Usually, these players are drafted in Rounds 6-10, and therefore we see them as a similar value to players like Rashad Jennings, who will almost always be in Top 30, but rarely if ever a Top 5 play. I've always wondered - what's the value of having a Top 5 player for a limited period of time? My hypothesis is that we undervalue them because Top 5 players increase our chances of
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Zimmerman writes analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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